Imagine you’re running one of the fastest-growing major economies on the planet, your factories are humming, millions of new cars hit the roads every year, and suddenly the guy who supplies nearly 40 % of your crude oil gets slapped with fresh sanctions. That’s exactly where India finds itself in December 2025.
And then, right in the middle of all that noise, the Russian president flies in, looks straight into the cameras alongside the Indian prime minister, and calmly says: “We are ready to guarantee uninterrupted fuel supplies for as long as you need.”
It felt less like a diplomatic statement and more like a mic drop.
A Relationship That Refuses to Cool Off
Let’s be honest — most people thought India would slowly distance itself from Russian energy after 2022. Western leaders certainly hoped so. Yet here we are, three years later, and the numbers tell a completely different story.
In October alone, India snapped up 38 % of all Russian seaborne crude exports. That’s not a side deal. That’s the kind of volume that keeps an entire economy running smoothly.
China still takes the top spot, but India is now firmly in second place — and the gap isn’t as wide as many in Washington would like to believe.
Why India Can’t Just Walk Away
Energy isn’t like buying a new phone. You don’t just switch suppliers because someone offers a better discount this week. Refineries are literally built — or retrofitted — to process specific types of crude.
Many Indian refineries on the west coast were designed decades ago with Russian grades in mind. Switching to, say, heavier Saudi crude or lighter American shale would mean costly upgrades, downtime, and a logistical nightmare.
- Russian Urals crude fits Indian refining configurations like a glove
- Discounts of $8–12 per barrel compared to Brent still matter — a lot
- Payment mechanisms in rupees and rubles bypass dollar headaches
- Long-term contracts provide the predictability growing economies crave
Add the fact that Russia has proven to be a supplier that doesn’t lecture New Delhi about human rights or alliance choices, and you start to understand why the relationship endures.
The American Pressure Campaign
Washington hasn’t been subtle. In August 2025 it slapped a 25 % tariff on countries continuing to buy Russian oil above a certain threshold. Two months later, the Treasury Department went straight for the jugular: sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, the two giants that move most of Russia’s export barrels.
And yet Indian imports dipped only briefly before climbing again. Why? Because energy security trumps tariff threats when your GDP is growing at 7 % and your cities never sleep.
“If the United States can still buy Russian nuclear fuel for its own power plants, why shouldn’t India have the same right?”
Vladimir Putin, in a pre-visit television interview
Fair point, actually. The hypocrisy is hard to miss when American utilities quietly keep the lights on with enriched uranium from across the Atlantic.
Not Just Oil — A Full-Spectrum Energy Partnership
Most headlines focus on crude, but the story runs much deeper.
Russia’s state nuclear corporation is finishing Units 5 and 6 at the Kudankulam plant in southern India — part of a broader plan that could eventually deliver 6,000 MW of clean, reliable baseload power. That’s enough electricity for tens of millions of homes.
Coal, LNG, pipeline gas via third countries, even joint Arctic exploration — the two countries keep finding new ways to plug India into Russian resources.
In my view, this is what strategic autonomy actually looks like in practice: you diversify, you hedge, and you never put all your eggs in one geopolitical basket.
The New U.S. LPG Deal: Hedge or Replacement?
Just last month, Indian state companies signed what was billed as a “historic” agreement to import 2.2 million tonnes of American liquefied petroleum gas annually.
It’s a solid deal, no question. But let’s keep perspective — that volume covers cooking gas and petrochemical feedstock, not the heavy fuel oil that powers industry and transport. In other words, it’s a useful addition, not a substitute for Russian barrels.
Think of it as India adding another spoke to the wheel rather than replacing the entire axle.
What Happens Next?
Three scenarios seem plausible at this point.
- Quiet continuation — India keeps buying Russian energy through shadow fleets and friendly insurers, sanctions be damned. This is the path of least resistance.
- Gradual diversification — New refineries come online that can run Middle Eastern or American crude more efficiently, and the Russian share slowly declines to 20-25 % over a decade.
- Forced rupture — Secondary sanctions get teeth (think banking access threats), and India has to pivot fast. Painful, expensive, and inflationary.
Most analysts I follow lean toward option 1 or 2. A complete break seems unlikely unless the geopolitical temperature rises dramatically.
Perhaps the most interesting aspect is how both Moscow and New Delhi have turned a crisis into an opportunity. Russia found a hungry buyer when Europe closed the door. India locked in cheap, reliable supply when global prices were spiking.
Win-win? In pure economic terms, absolutely. In geopolitical terms, it’s the perfect illustration of a world that’s moving past simple East-West binaries.
At the end of the day, energy flows where it’s needed most — sanctions, tariffs, and speeches notwithstanding. And right now, two of the BRICS heavyweights just reminded everyone that they intend to keep the pumps running, thank you very much.
Whether that arrangement lasts another year or another decade will depend on many things. But for now, the message from New Delhi is crystal clear: India will buy its fuel from whoever offers the best combination of price, reliability, and sovereignty.
And Russia, for its part, just promised to keep the tap wide open.
In a world of unpredictable alliances and shifting supply chains, that kind of certainty is worth more than gold.
