Have you ever opened an official-looking envelope and felt your stomach drop? In a growing number of European countries, that moment is becoming reality again for thousands of young people. The draft – something many of us thought died with the end of the Cold War – is quietly making a comeback, and the Baltic nations are showing the rest of the continent how it’s done.
It’s easy to forget how fast things can change. Ten years ago, most European armies were shrinking, professionalizing, and betting that large-scale land war on the continent was impossible. Today, the conversation has flipped completely. The question is no longer whether countries need more soldiers, but how quickly they can get them.
The Baltic Wake-Up Call Everyone Ignored
The three small countries wedged between Russia and the Baltic Sea never really bought the “end of history” story. When Russia rolled into Crimea in 2014, Lithuania didn’t waste time debating. They brought back mandatory military service the following year – the first European Union country to reverse course after suspending the draft in 2008.
Latvia followed when the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began, and Estonia never actually got rid of conscription in the first place. These aren’t abstract policy decisions. These are countries that share borders with Russia and Belarus. For them, the threat never went away – it just became fashionable to ignore it for a while.
Now Lithuania plans to call up 5,000 young people in 2026 alone, moving to year-round conscription. They’re spending between 5 and 6 percent of GDP on defense through 2030 – more than double NATO’s famous 2 percent guideline that most members still struggle to reach.
Being small doesn’t mean being defenseless. It means you have to be smarter and faster than everyone else.
That’s the Baltic philosophy in a nutshell. While larger countries debated whether Russia really posed a threat, these nations were already rebuilding what they call “total defense” – the idea that every citizen has a role if the worst happens.
Why the Rush Now?
The math is brutal when you strip away the American security blanket. NATO has about 3.4 million military personnel total, but remove the United States and you’re left with roughly 2.1 million. Of those, only about 1.5 million belong to EU countries. That’s not a lot of people to cover a continent that suddenly feels very exposed.
I’ve always found it fascinating how quickly conventional wisdom collapses when reality intrudes. For years we were told that precision weapons and professional forces made mass armies obsolete. Then came Ukraine, where both sides are burning through soldiers and equipment at rates that would have seemed impossible in 2019.
Suddenly, having a large pool of trained reserves doesn’t seem like nostalgia – it looks like survival.
Different Countries, Different Approaches
What’s emerging across Europe isn’t one single model, but a patchwork of solutions to the same problem. The Nordic countries have perhaps the most interesting experiments running.
Sweden brought back conscription in 2017 with a twist – it’s gender-neutral and selective. They screen everyone in an age group but only call up the number they actually need, usually around 8,000 per year. Norway does something similar. The goal isn’t to turn everyone into a soldier, but to have enough trained people who can be mobilized quickly if needed.
- Sweden: gender-neutral, selective service – about 8,000 called up annually from screened pool
- Norway: similar selective model, highly motivated volunteers often fill slots
- Denmark: uses a lottery system for those who don’t volunteer
- Finland: never abandoned universal male conscription, one of Europe’s most respected models
- Austria: maintains traditional male-only draft with civilian service alternative
These systems recognize a basic truth: modern warfare might be high-tech, but it still requires people who know which end of a rifle to point at the enemy.
The Big Countries Move – Slowly
France and Germany present a different picture. Both suspended conscription years ago and built professional forces instead. Now both are discovering that professional armies are excellent for expeditionary operations but terrible for the kind of grinding defense that’s suddenly relevant again.
France is rolling out a voluntary national service program that will eventually include 10-month commitments for young people. Germany is having the conversation everyone thought was settled – politicians who once proudly ended conscription are now openly discussing bringing it back.
The resistance is understandable. An entire generation grew up with the idea that mandatory service was an outdated burden. Convincing them it’s necessary again requires admitting that the peace dividend everyone enjoyed for thirty years might be over.
The return of conscription isn’t about nostalgia. It’s about recognizing that some threats don’t go away just because we stop believing in them.
The Reserve Force Revolution
Perhaps the most significant shift isn’t in active-duty numbers but in reserves. Countries are realizing that having 50,000 professional soldiers is nice, but having 300,000 trained reservists who can be called up in weeks changes the entire strategic calculation.
This is where the Baltic model really shines. Their reserve systems aren’t just names on a list – they’re people who train regularly, know their units, and can actually fight. When you have less than a million people total, every trained citizen matters.
Larger countries are trying to copy elements of this. The challenge is cultural as much as organizational. How do you convince a generation raised on individual choice that giving up months or years of their life for national defense is worth it?
What This Means for Young Europeans
The practical reality is that military service is becoming part of the conversation again for millions of young people who never expected it. In countries with existing systems, the question is expanding scope and duration. In countries without, the debate is whether to start from scratch.
There’s something profoundly generational about this shift. People who came of age after 1991 grew up with the assumption that large-scale war in Europe was impossible. Their children are growing up with Russian tanks two countries away and politicians discussing mobilization plans.
The Baltic countries offer a preview of what committed defense looks like when you don’t have the luxury of geography. They’ve accepted that being small means preparing constantly, training everyone, and never assuming someone else will save you.
The Broader European Awakening
What’s happening goes beyond military policy. It’s a recognition that the post-Cold War European project was built on assumptions that no longer hold. Cheap energy from Russia? Gone. American security guarantees without question? Uncertain. The ability to spend decades under-investing in defense? Over.
In many ways, the Baltic states were right all along. They never stopped preparing because they couldn’t afford to. Now the rest of Europe is playing catch-up, discovering that rebuilding military capability takes longer and costs more than letting it atrophy ever did.
The return of conscription isn’t the end point – it’s a symptom. The real shift is in mindset. After thirty years of assuming peace was permanent, Europe is remembering that peace is something you have to be ready to defend.
Whether this leads to genuine deterrence or just higher defense budgets with limited actual capability remains to be seen. What is clear is that the era of treating military service as an outdated concept is over. For better or worse, the draft is back – and this time, it’s not going away quietly.
