Every few years someone in finance steps forward with a Bitcoin price prediction so outrageous that the entire internet stops scrolling for a second. This time it’s Eric Jackson, founder of EMJ Capital, casually dropping a $50 million per coin target for 2041. Yeah, you read that right – fifty million dollars for one BTC.
I’ll be honest: when I first saw the headline I rolled my eyes so hard I nearly saw my brain. But then I listened to the full argument, and something clicked. This isn’t another “to the moon” meme. It’s one of the most coherent structural bull cases I’ve heard in years.
From Digital Gold to Global Collateral
Most of us are comfortable with the “digital gold” narrative. Bitcoin has a fixed supply, it’s borderless, and it’s increasingly seen as an inflation hedge. Gold’s market cap sits around $16-17 trillion today. If Bitcoin simply matches that, we’re looking at roughly $800,000–$1 million per coin. Big number, sure, but within the realm of plausible.
Jackson says that’s thinking way too small.
He argues Bitcoin won’t just sit beside gold as another store of value. It could become the the neutral settlement and collateral layer for the entire global financial system – effectively replacing the shadowy Eurodollar market that has underpinned world finance since the 1960s.
First, a Quick History Lesson Most People Skip
After World War II, the U.S. dollar became the world’s reserve currency, but there was a problem: there simply weren’t enough physical dollars circulating outside America to grease global trade. Banks started holding dollar deposits in London (hence “Euro”-dollars) completely outside U.S. regulatory control.
That unregulated offshore dollar system grew to become larger than the domestic U.S. banking system. Today estimates put the true Eurodollar market somewhere between $14 trillion and $50 trillion (nobody knows exactly because it’s unregulated by design).
Every sovereign bond, every corporate loan, every derivative ultimately sits on top of this hidden mountain of offshore dollar liabilities. It’s the real “base layer” of modern finance, not the Fed’s balance sheet.
Why the Eurodollar System Is Starting to Creak
The Achilles’ heel? It’s still tied to U.S. political risk. When trust in U.S. institutions wavers – think debt-ceiling fights, sanctions weaponization, or trillion-dollar deficits – the foundation shakes.
- China can’t fully trust a system controlled by its main geopolitical rival.
- Russia learned the hard way what happens when dollars get frozen.
- Even allies like Saudi Arabia are quietly exploring alternatives.
Enter Bitcoin. A bearer asset that no single government can freeze, inflate, or censor. Jackson’s core insight: sovereigns don’t need to abandon the dollar tomorrow. They just need a neutral asset to post as collateral when they borrow or trade with each other.
Putting Real Numbers on the Thesis
Global sovereign debt is roughly $100 trillion today and growing fast. Outstanding interest-rate derivatives? Over $600 trillion notional. The collateral supporting all of this (mostly U.S. Treasuries and Eurodollar deposits) would need to be orders of magnitude larger if it were truly risk-free and neutral.
Jackson’s back-of-the-envelope math:
- If Bitcoin captures just 20-30% of the world’s high-quality liquid collateral role…
- And global debt + derivatives keep growing at historical rates for 15 years…
- Then the implied fair value per coin lands in the $30–70 million range.
Suddenly $50 million doesn’t sound like hopium – it sounds like conservative scenario planning.
“People laugh at extreme forecasts until they don’t. I bought Carvana at $4 when everyone said it was going to zero. Sometimes the crowd is just wrong about the terminal value of a disruptive asset.”
– Eric Jackson (paraphrased)
What Has to Happen for This Vision to Play Out?
Nothing about this is guaranteed, of course. But the required milestones are surprisingly achievable:
- Nation-state adoption – El Salvador was the first domino. Others are watching closely.
- Spot ETFs maturing – already pulling in tens of billions from institutions.
- Stablecoin regulation clarity – making dollar-on-Bitcoin-rails legitimate.
- Lightning & Ark – scaling settlement to Visa levels while keeping self-custody.
- Central banks quietly accumulating – we probably won’t know until after the fact.
Perhaps the most interesting part? None of this requires Bitcoin to replace fiat for everyday coffee purchases. It only needs to become the settlement asset of last resort between governments and mega-institutions.
Risks and Counter-Arguments (Because Balance Matters)
Look, I’ve been in this space long enough to know every bull case has holes.
- Quantum computing threats (still decades away for practical attacks).
- Potential 51% attacks if hash rate centralizes.
- Governments could try to ban or heavily regulate Bitcoin into oblivion.
- Another superior tech could emerge (though none visible today).
Fair points. But banning Bitcoin at this stage is like trying to ban the internet in 1998 – the genie is out of the bottle problem. And no other crypto has Bitcoin’s Lindy effect, network security, or brand recognition.
My Personal Take After Digging In
I don’t know if we’ll hit exactly $50 million. I’m not even sure we’ll get to $5 million. But after mapping out the collateral-layer argument, $1 million suddenly feels like the floor scenario, not the ceiling.
The Eurodollar system has been the biggest game in town for 60 years precisely because there was no alternative. Bitcoin is the first credible contender in history that is truly neutral, verifiable, and seizure-resistant.
If even 10% of Jackson’s vision materializes, owning a whole Bitcoin in 2041 could be like owning a city block in Manhattan in 1920 – something only the ultra-wealthy (or extraordinarily early) can claim.
Food for thought the next time someone tells you “Bitcoin is just digital gold.”
Whether you think this thesis is genius or madness, one thing is clear: the conversation around Bitcoin’s endgame just moved to a completely different level.
And honestly? I kind of love it.
