Have you ever had that Monday morning feeling where everything seems to be moving at once? That’s exactly what this week feels like in the markets.
The S&P 500 is knocking on the door of its all-time high, the Federal Reserve is almost certain to deliver another rate cut, Berkshire Hathaway just announced a major leadership surprise, and a blockbuster Netflix-Warner Bros deal has Washington and Wall Street buzzing. Oh, and Google just learned its punishment for the search monopoly case. Buckle up.
Five Things Moving Markets Before the Bell
1. The S&P 500 Is Smelling Fresh All-Time Highs
Last week the broad market index put together a four-day winning streak and now sits less than one percent from both its intraday and closing records. That’s the kind of quiet confidence that makes traders nervous in the best way.
Friday’s delayed September core PCE reading – the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge – came in cooler than expected on a 12-month basis. Translation: the “soft landing” narrative is still very much alive. Traders are now pricing in roughly a 90% chance of a quarter-point rate cut when the Fed wraps up its meeting Wednesday afternoon.
In my experience, when the market gets this close to records heading into a Fed decision, it usually finds a way to push through – unless something truly shocking happens. And right now, nothing shocking looks on the calendar.
2. Big Changes at Berkshire Hathaway
While everyone was digesting holiday leftovers, Berkshire dropped a Sunday evening bombshell: Todd Combs – one of Warren Buffett’s two longtime portfolio managers and the current CEO of Geico – is leaving to join JPMorgan Chase.
Combs will head a newly created “Security and Resiliency Initiative” at the nation’s largest bank. That’s a fancy way of saying he’ll be in charge of making sure nothing ever breaks the place, which feels like the industry is finally admitting cyber and operational risk is the new market risk.
“Todd made many great hires for Geico and broadened its horizons.”
– Warren Buffett in this morning’s press release
Nancy Pierce, Geico’s longtime operations chief, steps up to replace him. Meanwhile, Berkshire also announced that veteran CFO Marc Hamburg will retire in mid-2027, with Charles Chang from Berkshire Hathaway Energy taking over. The succession drumbeat is getting louder in Omaha.
Investors hate surprises, but this one feels orderly. Shares will probably open flat to slightly lower, then everyone will remember Berkshire has survived bigger transitions and move on.
3. Netflix Wants to Own Hollywood – Regulators Aren’t So Sure
Friday’s after-hours announcement that Netflix is in talks to acquire Warner Bros Discovery sent shockwaves through both coasts. We’re talking about the world’s largest streaming platform swallowing one of the legendary “Big Six” studios. The combined company would control everything from HBO to CNN to the DC universe to the world’s biggest film library.
The pushback was immediate. Senior officials in the current administration told reporters they view the transaction with “heavy skepticism.” Senator Elizabeth Warren wasted no time calling it an “anti-monopoly nightmare” and demanding a full antitrust review.
Here’s the twist: sources say the Paramount-Skydance consortium is now considering going directly to Warner shareholders with a rival bid, betting their smaller deal has a better shot at approval. Meanwhile, theater chains are quietly having existential conversations about whether they can survive if the biggest streaming service suddenly owns a major studio and has zero incentive to support theatrical windows.
Honestly? I wouldn’t be shocked if this deal dies on the vine. The political mood toward Big Tech consolidation has changed dramatically in the last few years. But if it somehow gets through, it redraws the entire entertainment map overnight.
4. Google Finally Learns Its Antitrust Punishment
After being ruled a monopolist in search last year, Alphabet received the official remedy list Friday. The headline: Google can no longer sign revenue-share deals with browser makers (think the billions it pays Apple) unless those contracts have a termination clause of one year or less.
Judge Amit Mehta also laid out strict rules for the technical committee that will oversee data-sharing with rivals. Importantly, he rejected the Department of Justice’s most aggressive ideas – no forced sale of Chrome, no Android breakup.
Wall Street’s reaction? Relief. The stock barely budged. Most investors figured the worst-case scenarios were already priced out after the judge signaled restraint back in September. Still, this is the biggest behavioral remedy against a tech giant since Microsoft in the early 2000s. The precedent matters more than the immediate financial hit.
5. The Week Ahead – Don’t Miss These Catalysts
Beyond the Fed decision Wednesday, earnings season isn’t quite finished. Oracle and Adobe report after the bell Wednesday, then we get heavy hitters like Costco, Broadcom, and Lululemon on Thursday.
- Monday – New York Fed Consumer Expectations survey
- Tuesday – October JOLTS job openings
- Wednesday – Fed rate decision press conference
- Thursday – PPI wholesale inflation data
- Friday – Import prices and preliminary December consumer sentiment
Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent said over the weekend he still expects full-year 2025 real GDP around 3% despite the recent government shutdown drama. That’s the kind of comment that keeps the “no landing” crowd cheerful.
Look, I’ve been doing this long enough to know that quiet December weeks can turn chaotic in a heartbeat. But right now the path of least resistance still feels higher for risk assets. The inflation data is cooperating, earnings growth is expected to accelerate next year, and central banks remain in easing mode globally.
Of course, that Netflix-Warner situation could throw a wrench if regulators come out swinging early. And leadership surprises at iconic conglomerates always make people pause. But unless something truly breaks, this market has shown remarkable resilience all year.
My two cents? Stay invested, keep some dry powder for volatility, and remember that the biggest moves often happen when everyone is convinced “nothing ever happens in December.”
See you at the opening bell.
