Remember when Dogecoin was blasting past twenty cents and everyone was convinced we were going straight to a dollar “this cycle”? Yeah, me too. Fast forward to December 2025 and the chart looks painfully different – a clean series of lower highs and lower lows that would make any textbook technician nod in grim approval.
Yet something has started to feel… off. Not in a bad way, necessarily. The selling pressure that crushed us from $0.21 down to the $0.13 zone seems to be running out of breath. I’ve been staring at this chart more than I care to admit, and the last couple of weeks have given me that itchy feeling you get when the market is quietly setting up for something bigger.
The Bearish Structure Is Still Very Much Intact (For Now)
Let’s not sugar-coat it: Dogecoin remains in a textbook downtrend on every timeframe that matters. The rejection at $0.21 back in early 2025 was brutal and structural. Ever since, every rally has been slapped down before it could even threaten the previous lower high.
If you zoom out to the weekly chart, the picture is even clearer. We’re trading inside a massive descending channel that started all the way back in 2021 for the purists, or from the 2024-2025 top if you prefer the most recent cycle. Either way, the rules of engagement haven’t changed: sellers show up aggressively on every test of the upper trendline or the 50-day EMA cluster.
Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent – but they can also remain structural even longer than most traders can stay patient.
Why This Downtrend Feels Different From the Previous Ones
Here’s where it gets interesting. In every previous leg lower since the top, volume spiked on the breakdowns and stayed relatively elevated during the distribution phase. This time? Volume has been evaporating.
Look at the 4-hour and daily candles around the current $0.137–$0.144 range. The wicks are getting longer on the downside, sure, but the actual bodies are tiny and volume bars are shrinking week after week. That’s classic compression behavior – the market is coiling.
- Repeated tests of $0.137–$0.139 with increasingly smaller real-body candles
- Declining volume on-balance volume (OBV) divergence – price making roughly equal lows while OBV is creeping higher
- Funding rates on perpetual contracts have flipped mildly negative but not extreme (no forced long liquidations cascade yet)
- Spot CVD (cumulative volume delta) showing steady absorption rather than distribution
These aren’t screaming reversal signals on their own, but together they paint a picture of a market that is running out of willing sellers at current levels.
Key Levels I’m Watching Like a Hawk
If Dogecoin wants to keep the bear case alive, the path of least resistance is still lower. The next major structural support sits around $0.108–$0.112 – the 2023-2024 yearly open cluster and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the entire 2021-2025 bull market. A clean weekly close below $0.112 would almost certainly trigger another 20-30% flush toward $0.08.
On the flip side, the first real crack in the bear armor would be a daily close above $0.158 with expanding volume. That would invalidate the current lower-high sequence and open the door for a fast move toward $0.18 and eventually the big $0.21 zone everyone is obsessed with.
| Scenario | Trigger Level | Target Zone | Invalidation |
| Bear continuation | Weekly close < $0.129 | $0.108 → $0.08 | Daily close > $0.158 |
| Bullish rotation | Daily close > $0.158 + volume spike | $0.18 → $0.21 retest | New low below $0.129 |
| Range chop | Stay inside $0.137–$0.155 | Grinding sideways into 2026 | Either extreme break |
The Elon Musk Wildcard Nobody Can Price In
Let’s address the elephant (or dog) in the room. Elon still holds enormous sway over short-term Dogecoin price action. One vaguely positive tweet and we can gap 25% in an hour – we’ve all seen it. The problem? The market has become desensitized to anything short of an actual announcement (Tesla payments, DOGE treasury, etc.).
That said, the lower we go, the more asymmetric that wildcard becomes. A tweet at $0.10 carries infinitely more upside torque than the same tweet at $0.40 would have. Food for thought.
On-Chain Metrics: Quiet Accumulation or Just Low Conviction?
Digging into the glassnode and santiment data, exchange balances continue their multi-year downtrend – a quietly bullish long-term signal. The number of addresses holding 1M+ DOGE has been creeping higher even through the price decline, while the 100k–1M cohort has been flat. Translation: whales aren’t panic-selling, and mid-size holders aren’t capitulating.
Realized cap is also stabilizing after the sharp drop from the $0.48 highs earlier in 2025. Historically, when realized cap flattens while price continues lower, it has marked decent entry zones (see late 2022 and mid-2023).
What Would Actually Confirm a Real Bottom?
In my experience, meme coin bottoms rarely look pretty on the first touch. What tends to happen is:
- A final panic wick that takes out obvious support and liquidates over-leveraged longs
- A swift reversal candle (hammer or engulfing) on heavy volume
- A retest of the breakdown level that holds as new support
- Follow-through strength with higher lows and expanding participation
We haven’t seen step 1 yet in this structure. That tells me either (a) we’re going lower to manufacture that final flush, or (b) the bottom is forming in slow and boring through time rather than price. Both are possible.
Look, I’m not here to shill you into buying the dip or scare you into selling. I’ve been trading Dogecoin cycles since 2020 and I can tell you the one constant is that it always feels hopeless right before it rips and impossible right before it dumps.
Right now the structure is still says bearish, but the loss of downside momentum, shrinking volume, and on-chain stabilization are whispering that the risk/reward is starting to flip. Whether that flip happens at $0.13, $0.10, or only after a move back to $0.18 first remains to be seen.
My personal plan? I’ve been slowly accumulating below $0.14 with tight stops below $0.129, and I’ll add aggressively if we ever see that panic wick into the $0.10–$0.11 zone with immediate reversal. Until the market gives me a clear structural break higher, though, I’m keeping position sizes modest.
Because in this game, the only thing more expensive than buying too early is missing the move entirely when the dog finally decides to bark again.
