Imagine this: it’s mid-December, markets are jittery, Bitcoin is hovering just under six figures, and suddenly your phone blows up with a single notification — “Trump names new Fed chair.”
That moment might be closer than any of us think.
According to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, there’s a “very good chance” President Trump announces Jerome Powell’s successor before Christmas. Trump himself has already made his choice. The only question left is when he pulls the trigger — and who gets the most powerful job in global finance.
For crypto investors, this isn’t just another Washington personnel move. It’s potentially the biggest catalyst of 2026.
Why the Fed Chair Pick Matters More to Crypto Than Ever
Let’s be honest — most people glaze over when you mention the Federal Reserve. Interest rates, balance sheets, dot plots… it sounds like the world’s most boring board game.
But here’s what I’ve learned watching markets for years: the person sitting in that chair controls the oxygen in the room for risk assets. And right now, crypto is the ultimate risk asset.
When rates go down, money gets cheap, investors get brave, and Bitcoin tends to fly. When rates go up? The exact opposite happens. It’s not rocket science, but it’s remarkably consistent.
Bitcoin has historically shown an almost perfect inverse correlation with real yields. When money is expensive, BTC suffers. When money is cheap, BTC thrives.
Powell’s term ends in May 2026. That gives the new chair roughly five months to settle in before they start making real decisions. But markets don’t wait — they price action starts the moment a name is announced.
The Current Frontrunner: Kevin Hassett
If you haven’t heard the name Kevin Hassett yet, you will soon.
Former chairman of Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers, current Director of the National Economic Council, Hassett has emerged as the clear favorite in most betting markets and Washington whisper networks.
What makes him interesting for crypto folks? He’s been publicly supportive of digital assets and has criticized what he calls the Biden administration’s “war on crypto.” In interviews, he’s suggested Bitcoin could play a role in America’s strategic reserve — music to many holders’ ears.
More importantly, Hassett is seen as solidly in the pro-growth, lower-rates-for-longer camp. That philosophical leaning matters enormously when you’re setting monetary policy for the world’s largest economy.
- Advocated for tax cuts and deregulation in first Trump term
- Publicly positive on cryptocurrency innovation
- Strong ties to Wall Street but viewed as Trump loyalist
- Believes Fed sometimes overreacts to inflation
In my view, a Hassett Fed would likely be the most crypto-friendly outcome possible. Whether that translates to actually lower rates is another question — but the signaling alone would probably send Bitcoin higher.
The Hawk in Waiting: Christopher Waller
Don’t sleep on Fed Governor Christopher Waller.
Waller has been at the Fed since 2020 and has earned a reputation as one of the more hawkish voices on the FOMC. He’s particularly focused on keeping inflation dead and buried — even if that means slower growth.
His speeches read like love letters to 2% inflation targeting. When he talks, markets listen, because he’s been remarkably consistent.
“We need to see sustained evidence that inflation is moving toward 2% before considering any rate cuts.”
Christopher Waller, various 2024-2025 speeches
For crypto investors, Waller would likely represent the worst-case scenario. His appointment would almost certainly be read as “higher for longer” rates, which historically crushes risk appetite.
The Dark Horses: Bowman and Rieder
Two other names keep circulating in Washington.
Michelle Bowman, current Fed Governor, has been the most consistent dissenter against rate cuts over the past year. She’s deeply skeptical that inflation is truly beaten and has warned repeatedly about cutting too soon.
Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s CIO of Global Fixed Income, represents the Wall Street establishment choice. Brilliant mind, manages trillions, but his appointment would likely signal continuity with current policy rather than dramatic change.
Neither seems particularly likely at this point, but both remain in the conversation.
What History Tells Us About Fed Transitions
Looking back, Fed chair announcements have often been massive market events.
When Trump nominated Powell in 2017, markets initially dipped on uncertainty before rallying hard as his dovish tendencies became clear. When Biden renominated Powell in 2021, Bitcoin was trading around $55k — it topped $69k within weeks.
The pattern is clear: markets hate uncertainty but love perceived dovishness.
This time feels different though. Crypto is orders of magnitude larger and more mainstream. Institutional money is involved. The political stakes are higher.
The December FOMC Wildcard
Complicating everything is the December 17-18 FOMC meeting — potentially the last with Powell fully in control.
Markets expect a 25 basis point cut, but the real action will be in the dot plot and Powell’s press conference. Will he signal this is the last cut for a while? Will he leave the door open for more easing?
Any hint about his successor — even subtle — could move markets dramatically.
What This Means for Your Portfolio
Here’s my take, for what it’s worth.
If Trump picks Hassett or anyone perceived as dovish, Bitcoin probably makes a run at $120k+ before inauguration. The narrative would be too powerful: pro-crypto president installs pro-crypto Fed chair during rate-cutting cycle.
If he picks a hawk like Waller or Bowman? Look out below. We’d likely retest $80k pretty quickly as the “reflation trade” unwinds.
The most likely outcome feels like Hassett. The political logic is overwhelming — Trump gets to install a loyalist who shares his economic philosophy while sending a massive signal to his crypto-supporting base.
Either way, the next few weeks are going to be wild.
I’ve been through plenty of these Fed transitions. They always feel monumental in the moment. Sometimes they actually are.
This one feels different. The stakes are higher. The asset class is more mature. And the president doing the picking has made crypto a core part of his political brand.
Buckle up. The announcement is coming, and when it does, the entire crypto market will move — probably violently — in one direction or the other.
The only question is which way.
