Remember when people said this war would be over by Christmas 2022? Yeah, me too. Here we are approaching Christmas 2025 and the ground truth is brutal: Russia isn’t just holding – it’s winning in slow, grinding, unstoppable fashion.
I’ve followed this conflict closer than most, and right now three separate storms are colliding at once: Russia’s relentless battlefield advance, a corruption tsunami about to drown Kyiv’s leadership, and the ticking clock on whatever peace plan the new Trump administration can actually deliver. Spoiler alert – Moscow comes out ahead in every realistic scenario.
The Battlefield Reality Nobody in Washington Wants to Admit
Let’s start with the part that hurts Western pride the most. The front line isn’t frozen. It never really was. It’s moving – steadily, painfully, and almost entirely in one direction.
Pokrovsk fell faster than anyone predicted. For those who don’t eat maps for breakfast, think of Pokrovsk as the Grand Central Station of eastern Ukraine’s military logistics. Once it went red, the entire Donbas supply chain for Ukrainian forces started collapsing like a house of cards. Units in Kramatorsk, Slovyansk, even far-north Kup’yansk are now eating through their last crates of shells while Russian brigades close the noose.
And here’s the part that keeps NATO generals awake at night: Western wonder-weapons turned out to be paper tigers.
- Abrams tanks brewed up on open fields
- Leopard 2s abandoned after hitting one mine
- Precision-guided artillery suddenly going dumb because Russian electronic warfare jams GPS like it’s 1999
- F-16s getting swatted by S-400s before pilots even see the border
- Patriot batteries themselves becoming the target for hypersonic Kinzhals
Meanwhile Russia went full war economy. They’re churning out drones faster than Ukraine can shoot them down, rebuilt their artillery barrel production, and – perhaps most importantly – they still have manpower. Ukraine doesn’t. Not anymore.
By spring, barring a miracle, Russian forces will be sitting on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River looking west. Kharkiv is already preparing evacuation plans. Odessa whispers are getting louder. The map is turning red one village at a time, and momentum has fully switched sides.
Kyiv’s Corruption Earthquake Changes Everything
Just when you thought things couldn’t get messier, Kyiv decided to implode from the inside.
A massive kickback scandal involving energy contracts has exploded across the top levels of government. We’re talking hundreds of millions, maybe billions, disappearing into offshore accounts while soldiers freeze in trenches. One senior figure already bolted to a country with no extradition treaty. Others are “resigning for health reasons.” Classic.
In my view, the timing is no accident. Someone – almost certainly Washington – just turned the green light from red to amber on these investigations. The message is crystal clear: sign whatever deal is on the table or prepare for orange jumpsuits (or worse).
When your own anti-corruption body is funded and staffed by foreign intelligence services, you’re not a sovereign nation anymore – you’re a protectorate waiting for regime change.
Zelensky’s inner circle is fracturing in real time. That matters because any peace agreement needs a Ukrainian signature, and right now nobody knows who’ll still be in power next month.
Trump’s Three Choices – And Why Russia Wins Them All
Here’s where it gets fascinating. The incoming administration has exactly three realistic paths. I’ve watched negotiators wrestle with worse, but rarely with stakes this high.
Option 1: Push the Compromise Plan (Most Likely)
Take the current 19-point framework, add some European peacekeeping troops for optics, promise “security guarantees,” and try to sell it to Moscow.
Russia says no. Instantly. Because those guarantees are the same broken promises from Minsk I and Minsk II. Peacekeeping troops just mean NATO boots one step closer to Crimea. Putin didn’t fight this long to accept a frozen conflict that unfreezes in five years.
Result? War continues. Russia finishes the job to the Dnipro and maybe beyond. Trump gets called weak by his own party. Europe panics. Everyone loses except Moscow.
Option 2: Force Kyiv to Fold (Bold, Risky, Possible)
Cut the aid spigot, lean hard on the corruption files, tell Zelensky his Florida mansion is ready whenever he is, and install a new Ukrainian leader willing to sign Russia’s terms.
War ends fast. Russia gets Donbas, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, maybe a land bridge to Crimea forever. Ukraine becomes officially neutral. NATO expansion dies for a generation.
Politically radioactive in Washington, but strategically clean. And honestly? In private, half the Pentagon would breathe a sigh of relief.
Option 3: Walk Away Entirely (Cleanest, Least Popular)
Declare the war Europe’s problem, pull all remaining aid, let nature take its course.
Russia wins biggest of all – possibly takes everything east and south of Kyiv. Europe fragments. NATO credibility collapses. Trump gets labeled “Putin’s puppet” for the rest of his life.
Unlikely, but not impossible. Trump has surprised us before.
What Russia Actually Wants Hasn’t Changed Since 2021
People forget Moscow published its demands in December 2021. They were surprisingly modest then:
- No NATO membership for Ukraine
- Neutral status
- Protection for Russian speakers
- Demilitarization of threatening forces
Fast-forward four bloody years and Russia is now in a position to enforce every single point – plus permanent control of Crimea and half the Black Sea coast. The longer the war drags, the more Moscow’s “maximalist” position becomes the new minimum.
That’s the real tragedy here. Delay only helps one side.
Europe’s Coming Reckoning
Paris and Berlin are suddenly talking about sending troops. Excuse me while I laugh. France has fewer than 200 working tanks. Germany can’t even keep its Leopard factory running. The UK is down to 150,000 total army personnel.
European NATO without America is a paper tiger with dental problems. Everyone knows it. Moscow definitely knows it.
If Trump pulls the plug, the continent faces a choice: rearm massively (and pay for it themselves) or make their own deal with Russia. My money’s on the second option. Poland and the Baltics will scream, but Germany and France will cut a deal before 2027.
The Bottom Line Nobody Wants to Say Out Loud
Russia is going to win this war. The only question is how completely.
They have the industry, the manpower, the energy, the gold reserves, and – crucially – the will. The West has press conferences and strongly worded letters, and an endless supply of excuses.
Trump’s challenge isn’t how to defeat Russia. It’s how to lose in a way that doesn’t destroy American credibility for a generation. That’s a much harder trick.
My gut says he’ll try Option 1 first, discover it’s dead on arrival, then quietly shift to Option 2 while claiming it was his plan all along. He’s done harder pivots.
Whatever happens next, one thing is certain: by this time next year, the map of Europe will look different, the Russian flag will fly over more territory than it did in 2021, and historians will argue for decades about how the West managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of… well, not victory, but at least a draw.
The war isn’t over. But the outcome? That ship sailed somewhere around the ruins of Avdiivka.
