Have you ever watched a stock you own jump 65% in a single year and still feel like it’s just getting warmed up? That’s exactly where we are with Alphabet right now.
I’ve been following Google’s parent company for years, and honestly, I can’t remember the last time the bullish case felt this stacked. Yesterday morning, TD Cowen dropped a note that basically lit a rocket under the stock—raising their price target from $335 to a street-high $350 while keeping a strong buy rating. That implies another 12% upside from here, which is wild when you consider how much the shares have already run.
But here’s the thing: after digging into the details, I’m starting to think even $350 might be conservative.
The Two Engines That Suddenly Shifted Into Overdrive
Everyone knows Alphabet makes most of its money from advertising. What fewer people fully appreciate is how two completely different growth stories—AI-powered Search and Gemini—are now feeding each other in a virtuous loop that looks almost unstoppable.
Google Search Didn’t Just Survive AI—It Got Stronger
Remember all those headlines last year screaming that ChatGPT was going to kill Google Search? Yeah… about that.
Turns out when you actually give people useful AI answers inside the search experience (instead of forcing them to leave for a separate chatbot), they end up doing more searches, not fewer. Who would’ve thought?
TD Cowen’s latest U.S. consumer survey data shows exactly that pattern playing out:
- Gemini 3 launch triggered a noticeable spike in chatbot usage
- AI Mode and AI Overviews are driving higher search engagement
- An increasing percentage of ChatGPT users are also regularly using Gemini
The result? The analysts bumped their five-year compound annual growth rate for Google Search from 9.6% to 10.2%. That might sound like a small tweak, but on a business that size, half a percentage point is billions of dollars.
“Continued increases in Search engagement driven by AI Mode and AI Overviews usage”
– TD Cowen research note, December 2025
Gemini’s User Growth Is Actually Insane
Here’s the number that made me do a double-take: TD Cowen now expects Gemini to hit 850 million monthly active users by the end of 2025. That’s up from their previous estimate of 600 million. Yes, you read that right—a 41% increase in their forecast.
And they’re not stopping there. By 2030, the firm thinks the Gemini app alone could approach 3 billion monthly users. For context, that would make it one of the most-used pieces of software in human history.
I’ve tested Gemini 3 myself over the past few weeks, and I get it. The leap from 2.0 isn’t just incremental—it feels like a different product entirely. Faster, more accurate, better at complex reasoning. When the underlying model gets this good, network effects kick in fast.
The Advertising Moat Just Got Deeper
People sometimes forget that Google isn’t just an AI company or a search company—it’s fundamentally a mobile advertising juggernaut.
Android, YouTube, Chrome, Gmail, Maps… the list of properties that keep users inside Alphabet’s ecosystem is ridiculous. Add in the fact that AI is making search results more engaging (which means more time on page, which means more ad impressions), and you start to understand why TD Cowen calls Google “the best-positioned mobile advertising company.”
Throw in Google Cloud finally hitting scale (now consistently growing north of 30% year-over-year), and you’ve got three distinct growth engines all firing at once.
Putting the Valuation in Perspective
Let’s talk numbers for a second.
Even after the massive run this year, Alphabet still trades at roughly 22-23x forward earnings—basically in line with the broader market. For a company growing revenue and EBITDA at double-digit rates with multiple new growth drivers just hitting inflection points, that feels… cheap.
| Metric | Current | TD Cowen 2025 Est. |
| Revenue Growth | ~15% | 12-14% |
| EBITDA Growth | ~20% | 15%+ |
| Forward P/E | ~23x | ~20x |
| Free Cash Flow Yield | ~4% | ~4.5% |
When you have a business this dominant trading at market multiples while simultaneously rolling out generational platform shifts (mobile → AI), history suggests the market eventually rewards you.
Risks? Sure, But Manageable
Look, nothing’s risk-free. Regulatory scrutiny isn’t going away. Competition in AI is fierce. If the macro economy rolls over, advertising budgets get cut first.
But here’s what keeps me up at night less than it used to: Alphabet has proven—multiple times—that it can navigate existential threats. Remember when everyone thought iPhone would kill Android? Or when Facebook was going to crush YouTube? Or when cloud was “too late” to matter?
Every single time, the market underestimated Google’s ability to adapt and extend its moats. I’m not saying history repeats, but it rhymes.
The Bottom Line
If you’ve been waiting for the “next leg” in tech, this might be it. Not because some analyst raised a price target, but because the underlying drivers—real user adoption of AI products, sticky search engagement, advertising tailwinds—are all pointing in the same direction.
Alphabet isn’t just surviving the AI transition. It’s emerging as one of the clearest winners.
And when a company this good gets this kind of momentum? My experience says you don’t bet against it.
(Disclosure: I am long Alphabet shares and have been for years. This is not investment advice—always do your own research.)
