Have you checked the price of silver lately? It’s absolutely on fire, and honestly, it’s caught a lot of us off guard—even those who thought they had a good read on the markets this year.
While everyone’s been talking about tech stocks and artificial intelligence driving returns, something quieter but far more explosive has been happening in the commodities space. Precious and industrial metals have been posting gains that make even the hottest sectors look tame.
The Metals Boom That’s Stealing the Show
Let’s put some numbers on this. Silver has surged more than 125% in 2025 alone. Gold, often seen as the steady leader in this space, is up a very respectable 65%. But it’s not just the classics—platinum has jumped 117%, palladium nearly 93%, and even copper has climbed 37%. These aren’t small moves. They’re the kind of returns that turn heads and rewrite portfolios.
In contrast, oil has been sliding toward multi-year lows. Grains and other carbon-based commodities are struggling too. It’s a stark divide, and it begs the question: what’s really going on here?
The Debasement Trade Explained
One commodities expert I follow closely sums it up perfectly: if it’s an element on the periodic table with an atomic number, it’s flying high right now. If it’s a molecule with carbon—like oil, natural gas, corn, or wheat—it’s under pressure.
He calls this the debasement trade. It’s not just about inflation hedging anymore. It’s deeper than that. People and institutions are looking for anything that feels like “real money” outside of traditional fiat currencies. And on top of that, entire nations are actively working to reduce their reliance on the U.S. dollar to avoid potential financial sanctions.
If it’s in the periodic table, and it has an atomic number attached to it, it’s the debasement trade.
That simple distinction captures the moment we’re in. Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, have been aggressive buyers of gold. They’re stacking it not just as a reserve asset but as a strategic move in a shifting geopolitical landscape.
Why Silver and Platinum Are Playing Catch-Up
Gold has long been the go-to for central banks and safe-haven investors. But now, the other metals are starting to benefit from the same forces. Silver, in particular, has massive room to run because it’s historically undervalued relative to gold. The gold-silver ratio has been stretched for years, and moments like this often trigger sharp rebalancing.
Platinum adds another layer. Beyond its role as a monetary metal, it has critical industrial uses—especially in catalytic converters for vehicles. Recent policy shifts in Europe, walking back aggressive bans on internal combustion engines, have given the demand outlook a boost. It’s like the energy transition narrative hit a speed bump, and platinum is one of the direct beneficiaries.
In my view, this catch-up dynamic is one of the most interesting parts of the story. Gold got the early attention, but silver and platinum could deliver even stronger percentage gains from here as the trade broadens.
The Flip Side: Why Oil and Agriculture Lag
Meanwhile, the “molecule” commodities are dealing with their own set of challenges. Oil markets are swimming in supply. Production discipline has weakened in some regions, and demand growth—while still positive—hasn’t kept pace with expectations. Add in efficiency gains and alternative energy adoption, and you’ve got downward pressure.
Agriculture faces similar issues. Weather patterns have been favorable in key growing regions, leading to bumper crops. Inventories are high, and prices reflect that abundance.
- Oil: Supply glut from increased production and slower demand growth
- Natural gas: Oversupplied markets in multiple regions
- Grains: Strong harvests rebuilding stockpiles
- Soft commodities: Generally ample supply keeping lids on prices
But here’s where it gets interesting—many analysts believe this divergence won’t last forever.
Looking Ahead: The Coming Scarcity Era?
Years of underinvestment in traditional energy and mining are starting to show. Capital has flowed elsewhere—tech, renewables, you name it—leaving upstream projects starved. That sets the stage for supply constraints down the road.
Real asset managers are increasingly vocal about this. They’re pointing to rationalized supply chains, depleted inventories, and growing structural demand. In their eyes, we’re entering a period where scarcity becomes the dominant theme across multiple commodity classes.
A lot of these are underappreciated in what we think is going to be an era of scarcity.
– Real assets portfolio manager
Even livestock markets are sending signals. Cattle prices have posted their strongest annual gain in nearly two decades. That’s often a leading indicator for broader protein inflation.
Aluminum producers like major mining companies are trading well off their post-pandemic highs but showing signs of life. The setup feels similar across the complex: prices have been low enough for long enough to force supply offline, and now demand is reaccelerating.
What This Means for Investors
If you’re sitting on the sidelines wondering whether to pay attention, I’d argue it’s worth a closer look. These moves aren’t happening in a vacuum. They’re driven by powerful macro trends: currency concerns, geopolitical realignment, and a reassessment of real versus financial assets.
That said, commodities are notoriously cyclical. Timing matters. Volatility can be brutal. But the underlying drivers here feel structural rather than purely speculative.
Perhaps the most compelling aspect is how broad-based the strength has become. It’s not just one metal or one narrative. It’s a convergence of monetary, industrial, and geopolitical demand hitting supply-constrained markets.
- Monetary demand: Central banks and private investors seeking alternatives to fiat
- De-dollarization efforts: Nations building non-USD reserves
- Industrial recovery: Manufacturing and infrastructure spending
- Energy transition nuances: Policy reversals supporting certain metals
- Supply constraints: Years of underinvestment coming home to roost
When you stack these factors together, it’s hard not to see upside potential persisting into next year and beyond.
The Bigger Picture: Real Assets Resurgence
Zoom out, and this metals rally feels like part of a larger rotation. After more than a decade of financial assets dominating—stocks, bonds, growth equities—real assets are reclaiming attention.
Inflation isn’t raging like it was a few years ago, but neither has it vanished. Policy rates are coming down in many places, which typically supports hard assets. And with government debt levels elevated globally, the incentive to let currencies weaken gradually remains.
In my experience following markets, these regime shifts often start quietly and then accelerate. We’ve seen it with tech, with crypto at times, and now perhaps with commodities. The question isn’t whether the trend exists—it’s how far it runs and which parts of the complex lead next.
Silver’s explosive move might be telling us something important: the trade is maturing and broadening. When the lesser-known metals start outperforming the leader, it often signals conviction building across the sector.
Of course, nothing moves in a straight line. Pullbacks should be expected. Geopolitical tensions could ease. Policy could shift again. But the supply-demand fundamentals appear tilted in favor of higher prices over a multi-year horizon.
For now, the periodic table is winning. And if history is any guide, when real assets wake up like this, they tend to stay interesting for a while.
Whether you’re a long-time commodity bull or someone just noticing the moves now, it’s hard to ignore what’s unfolding. The debasement trade, the scarcity setup, the geopolitical undercurrents—they’re all aligning in a way that feels significant.
And honestly? After years of tech dominance, it’s refreshing to see another part of the market take center stage. Silver might just be the spark that’s lighting a much bigger fire in real assets.
Keep watching this space. The next chapters could be even more compelling.
