Let me be honest: I’ve been following Nvidia for years, and every time the stock makes another moonshot, the same chorus of doom starts up again. “It’s overvalued!” “Competition is coming!” “The party’s ending soon.” Yet here we are in late 2025, with Nvidia still sitting near the top of the market-cap leaderboard, and those same warnings sounding a little more desperate each time.
So I thought it would be useful to do something a bit different today: actually listen to the bears, lay out their five strongest arguments against the company, and then explain—calmly and with facts—why I think every single one of them is either exaggerated or just plain wrong.
The Five Biggest Bear Cases Against Nvidia—and Why They Don’t Hold Up
Let’s dive in, starting with the one that gets the most headlines.
1. Nvidia Is Losing Its AI Chip Crown
The argument goes like this: AMD’s latest chips are better and cheaper, Google has its own powerhouse TPUs, Amazon is building custom silicon, and even Meta is shopping around for alternatives. OpenAI supposedly signed a huge deal with AMD right after its massive Nvidia contract—proof that the monopoly is cracking.
Sounds scary, right? Except when you zoom out.
Independent estimates still put Nvidia’s share of the AI training and inference market somewhere between 70% and 95%. That’s not a small moat—that’s a castle surrounded by a lava-filled moat. The reason isn’t just hardware; it’s the entire ecosystem. CUDA, the software platform Nvidia has spent two decades perfecting, is still the default choice for most AI developers. Switching costs are astronomical.
And let’s talk about the next-gen platform: Vera Rubin. From everything I’ve seen, it’s not just an incremental upgrade—it’s designed to push reasoning capabilities far beyond what current architectures can handle. AMD and others are playing catch-up, not leapfrogging.
The real competition isn’t about who has the fastest single chip today; it’s about who controls the software stack that makes those chips actually useful tomorrow.
In short: yes, there are challengers. No, they aren’t dethroning Nvidia anytime soon.
2. Jensen Huang’s China Stance Will Backfire
Another popular narrative: CEO Jensen Huang has been too cozy with Washington, trying to sell “watered-down” chips to China while lobbying against stricter export controls. Meanwhile, Chinese companies allegedly built something better anyway, so Nvidia is locked out of a massive market.
Here’s the reality: Huang has been saying the same thing since early 2024—banning advanced chips from China doesn’t stop their progress; it just forces them to reinvent the wheel and hurts American leadership in the long run.
Interestingly, that message seems to have landed. Recent policy shifts have opened the door for Nvidia to sell more advanced silicon to approved customers in China (with some revenue-sharing strings attached). It’s not the full market, but it’s far from a total shutdown.
Huang isn’t just a chip designer—he’s a world-class communicator and strategist. People underestimate that at their peril.
- Export controls tightened → Chinese firms accelerated domestic development
- Huang’s advocacy → partial easing of restrictions
- Result → Nvidia still sells meaningful volume in China
Checkmate? Not quite. But definitely not checkmate against Nvidia either.
3. Vera Rubin Will Be Late—and Customers Will Flee
This one keeps resurfacing: if the Vera Rubin platform misses its late-2026 window, everyone will jump to competitors. No chip, no customers.
I get the concern—delays happen. But Nvidia has a nearly flawless track record of delivering on major platform transitions. Blackwell was complicated, expensive, and still sold out. Rubin is already on the roadmap, with a clear successor (named after Richard Feynman) slated for 2028.
More importantly, Nvidia thinks in decades, not quarters. The company has repeatedly turned supposed “delays” into opportunities to widen its lead. I’m not saying nothing can go wrong—I’m saying doubting Jensen’s execution at this point feels like betting against gravity.
In my view, the bigger risk is not owning the stock when Rubin finally ships.
4. The Chips Burn Too Hot and Need Impossible Power
The latest scare story: Nvidia’s Blackwell chips run so hot that custom servers keep failing, and the power infrastructure needed to run these monsters won’t be ready for years. Quantum computing is also supposedly right around the corner, making everything obsolete.
First, the overheating reports. Yes, there were early design hiccups. But Nvidia has already iterated on rack designs multiple times, and demand is still described as “insane” by the CEO himself. These are teething problems, not fatal flaws.
As for power: sure, training the next generation of frontier models will require gigawatts. But data-center operators are racing to build exactly that capacity—because the revenue potential is astronomical.
Quantum? It’s coming, eventually. But we’re talking decades, not years. Nvidia isn’t standing still either; they’re already exploring hybrid architectures.
Power constraints are real—but they’re a speed bump, not a wall.
The market keeps pricing in the worst-case scenario. I think that’s a mistake.
5. OpenAI Won’t Get Enough Funding—and Nvidia’s Chips Will Sit Idle
The final bear thesis: OpenAI needs $100 billion+ to build out data centers. If they can’t raise it, Nvidia’s monster orders will go unfulfilled, and earnings will crater.
Let’s be real: the entire AI industry is in a funding frenzy. Oracle, Microsoft, Google, Amazon—they’re all pouring hundreds of billions into infrastructure. OpenAI has already raised enormous sums and is negotiating even bigger rounds. The money is there because the demand is there.
Even if OpenAI stumbles, Nvidia’s customer base is far broader—think Meta, Google, Tesla, Microsoft, xAI, and dozens of others. The idea that one customer’s funding hiccup would sink the ship is laughable.
Bottom line: the AI arms race isn’t slowing down. It’s accelerating.
The Bottom Line: Why I’m Still Bullish
I’m not blind to risks. Nvidia trades at a premium valuation. Competition is real. Geopolitical tensions are real. Power and cooling challenges are real.
But every time I look at the counterarguments, they seem to fall apart under scrutiny. The company has the best hardware, the best software ecosystem, the best leadership, and the strongest customer pull in the industry.
Perhaps the most telling sign is how often the bears recycle the same narratives—only to watch Nvidia prove them wrong again and again.
- Market share remains dominant
- Software moat is widening
- Execution track record is near-perfect
- Demand is still described as “insane”
- Next-gen platforms are already on the roadmap
So yeah—I’m staying long. And honestly? I sleep pretty well at night.
What do you think? Are the bears finally onto something this time, or is this just another chapter in the “Nvidia is doomed” saga that never quite materializes? Drop your thoughts below—I read every comment.
