Have you ever watched a ceasefire slowly unravel in real time? The kind where both sides claim to honor the agreement while quietly preparing for the next round. Right now, southern Lebanon feels exactly like that — a powder keg with a very short fuse.
Just this past weekend, Israeli forces carried out multiple precision strikes across several villages south of the Litani River. Meanwhile, in Beirut, government officials were publicly stating that the first phase of disarming Hezbollah in that very same area was only days away from completion. The timing feels almost theatrical.
A Fragile Truce Under Heavy Pressure
The November 2024 ceasefire was supposed to end more than a year of devastating cross-border fighting. For a while, it actually held — at least on paper. But in the past two months, violations have become almost routine. Israeli drones, artillery, and ground incursions have claimed dozens of lives since early November. Over 300 people — civilians included — have died since the ink dried on the agreement.
From the Israeli perspective, the justification is straightforward: Hezbollah has been quietly rebuilding its military infrastructure south of the Litani, in direct violation of the ceasefire terms. From Beirut’s viewpoint, Israel is using these claims as a pretext to keep the pressure on and prevent Lebanon from ever regaining full sovereignty over its southern territory.
Both can’t be entirely wrong. And that’s exactly why the situation remains so volatile.
The Disarmament Timeline: Days or Years?
Lebanon’s Prime Minister recently made a rather bold statement. He claimed the first phase — removing Hezbollah’s military presence south of the Litani — is nearly finished. According to official briefings, the Lebanese army has already dismantled around 90% of the infrastructure that was supposed to come down under the ceasefire deal.
“The first phase… is only days away from completion.”
Lebanese government statement
That sounds promising — until you realize the second phase (everything north of the Litani) is supposed to follow shortly after. And here’s where things get murky. Originally, the government talked about completing full disarmament by the end of 2025. Now, sources close to the process suggest a more realistic timeline stretches into 2026. Or longer.
Israel has made it clear: anything less than full and immediate disarmament is unacceptable. They’ve even hinted at launching another large-scale operation if the weapons aren’t handed over by year’s end. Hezbollah, for its part, has rejected the idea of total disarmament outright, insisting it retains the right to defend Lebanese territory.
What the Weekend Strikes Actually Tell Us
Sunday’s attacks were not isolated incidents. In the town of Yater, an Israeli drone first struck a vehicle, then minutes later targeted a motorcycle roughly 300 meters away. The army later confirmed both strikes were aimed at individual Hezbollah operatives.
Elsewhere, artillery and machine-gun fire hit areas near Kfar Shuba and Bastra Farm. Similar patterns have emerged in Blida and Taybeh in recent days. The message from Tel Aviv seems unmistakable: even if Beirut is making progress on paper, Israel is not convinced — and will keep hitting until it sees tangible results.
- Multiple drone strikes on suspected Hezbollah targets
- Artillery shelling of border-adjacent areas
- Confirmation of targeted eliminations of operatives
These are not random acts. They are deliberate signals.
Behind Closed Doors: US Pressure and Direct Talks
One of the more surprising developments is the quiet emergence of direct Israel-Lebanon talks. Under heavy American pressure, Beirut appointed a special envoy to engage with Israeli representatives — despite Lebanese law technically prohibiting such direct contact.
Two rounds of meetings have already taken place as part of the U.S.-led ceasefire monitoring mechanism. The Lebanese government has been deliberately vague about the content, but the timing of the Prime Minister’s disarmament announcement suggests some kind of progress — or at least an attempt to show progress.
Yet even here, divisions are visible. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri has repeatedly stated that Lebanon will not negotiate “under fire.” The contrast between his position and the government’s willingness to talk directly is telling.
The Human Cost of a Stalemate
While politicians and generals debate timelines and percentages, ordinary people on both sides of the border continue to pay the price. Since the ceasefire began, scores of civilians — including children — have lost their lives in Israeli strikes. Lebanese villages near the border remain largely empty, their residents displaced and afraid to return.
In Israel’s northern communities, the memory of Hezbollah rockets is still fresh. Many Israelis remain skeptical that any Lebanese disarmament plan will ever be fully implemented — or that it will make their communities truly safe.
It’s a vicious cycle: each new strike fuels distrust, and each act of distrust justifies another strike.
Can the Ceasefire Be Saved?
The honest answer is: probably not in its current form. The agreement was always a temporary bandage on a much deeper wound. Without a genuine political breakthrough — something that addresses not only Hezbollah’s arsenal but also the underlying grievances on both sides — the truce will continue to erode.
Some analysts believe the current escalation might actually be a prelude to a more serious negotiation. Israel applies maximum pressure, Lebanon makes visible concessions, and eventually a new understanding emerges. Others fear it’s simply the beginning of another round of open warfare.
I’ve followed this region for years, and one thing stands out: when both sides are convinced they can outlast the other, the body count just keeps climbing.
What Happens If Disarmament Fails?
If the Lebanese army cannot (or will not) complete the disarmament process, several scenarios become likely:
- Israel launches a new ground operation aimed at creating a deeper buffer zone
- Hezbollah escalates rocket attacks on northern Israel
- The U.S. and France lose patience and reduce diplomatic support for Beirut
- Lebanon descends into deeper internal political chaos
None of these outcomes are good for anyone involved.
A Glimmer of Hope?
Despite the grim headlines, there are a few small signs that de-escalation is still possible. The fact that direct talks are happening at all is remarkable given the history between the two countries. The Lebanese government’s willingness to publicly commit to disarmament timelines — even if those timelines are flexible — shows a level of political courage.
If the United States can maintain pressure on both sides without being seen as taking sides, there might still be a narrow path to a more durable arrangement. But that path is getting narrower by the day.
At the end of the day, southern Lebanon is not just a military buffer zone — it’s home to hundreds of thousands of people who want nothing more than to live without fear of the next drone strike or rocket barrage. Whether the current round of diplomacy and violence leads to peace or to another war remains an open question. But time, as always, is not on anyone’s side.
What do you think — is Beirut really days away from disarming Hezbollah south of the Litani, or is this just another chapter in a very long conflict?
