Have you ever watched a crypto asset grind lower day after day, wondering when the pain will finally stop? That’s exactly what’s happening with Hedera’s HBAR right now. As we head into the final days of 2025, the price action feels exhausting – relentless selling, failed bounces, and that nagging sense that something bigger could be brewing underneath.
I’ve been tracking HBAR for a while, and honestly, the current setup has me on edge. It’s not just another dip; there are clear technical warnings flashing that we might be approaching a capitulation phase if things don’t turn around soon. Let’s break it all down and see what’s really going on.
Why HBAR’s Downtrend Feels So Stubborn Right Now
The truth is, HBAR has been in a pretty brutal downtrend for weeks. Each attempt at a recovery gets slapped down almost immediately, creating this pattern of lower highs and lower lows that screams seller control. It’s classic bearish structure, and unfortunately, there’s no real sign of it breaking yet.
What strikes me most is how orderly the decline has been at times, only to accelerate when key levels give way. That kind of behavior often precedes sharper moves – the market clearing out weak hands before deciding on the next direction.
The Key Levels That Have Already Failed
One of the biggest red flags came when HBAR lost what traders call the Value Area High. This isn’t some arbitrary line – it’s a volume-based level where a lot of trading previously occurred, essentially representing “fair value” in the prior range.
Once price broke below it decisively, the character of the market changed. Bounces became weaker, selling pressure intensified, and we’ve been making steady progress lower ever since. It’s a textbook example of how losing important volume profile levels can shift the balance of power.
Then came the retest. Price briefly climbed back toward the Point of Control – that dense area where the most volume traded in the previous distribution. But instead of reclaiming it, HBAR got rejected hard. That failure to hold above the POC confirmed acceptance at lower prices, which is rarely a good sign for bulls.
In volume profile terms, a failed retest of the POC often signals that the market is comfortable trading below prior value – and will likely continue searching for demand lower down.
The Value Area Low falling next just added insult to injury. When price trades below the VAL, it means we’ve officially left the previous balance area and entered a new, lower value regime. Markets don’t like hanging out in poor structure forever; they tend to move directionally until finding fresh balance.
The Critical $0.11 Support Under Threat
Right now, all eyes are on that $0.11 zone. This isn’t just another random support – it’s a high-timeframe level that’s held significance in the past, acting as a defensive line for buyers multiple times.
But here’s what worries me: the way we’re approaching it feels different. Volume has been drying up on bounces, selling comes in waves, and there’s very little structural support visible below if it breaks. That combination often sets the stage for accelerated moves.
- Price repeatedly failing to hold above previous swing highs
- Declining volume on upside attempts
- Increasing momentum on downside pushes
- Limited historical support beneath current levels
Any one of these would be concerning. All of them together? That’s the kind of setup that keeps traders up at night.
Understanding Capitulation in Crypto Markets
Let’s talk about what capitulation actually means, because it’s thrown around a lot but rarely explained properly. It’s not just “price goes down a lot.” True capitulation happens when the last remaining buyers throw in the towel, stop-losses cascade, and selling becomes almost panic-driven.
In my experience watching crypto cycles, these phases often occur after prolonged grinding downtrends – exactly what we’ve seen with HBAR lately. The market wears everyone out slowly, then suddenly accelerates when a key level finally cracks.
The scary part? Capitulation moves can be swift and deep. We’re talking 20-30% drops in days, sometimes more, as liquidity gets swept and positions get forcibly closed. But here’s the silver lining I’ve noticed over the years: these events frequently mark important exhaustion points.
Capitulation isn’t the end of a bear market – it’s often the final phase where weak hands are shaken out before smarter money starts accumulating.
Of course, timing these moments is notoriously difficult. That’s why watching price action around key levels like $0.11 becomes so crucial.
Momentum Indicators Telling the Same Story
If you’re someone who likes oscillators and momentum readings, they’re not offering much comfort either. Most are still pointing downward, with no meaningful divergence yet to suggest exhaustion.
What’s interesting is how the relief rallies have been getting shallower each time. That shrinking upside momentum while downside moves remain sharp tells you who’s really in control. It’s not the bulls, that’s for sure.
I’ve found that when momentum stays persistently bearish through multiple support tests, the eventual breakdown – if it comes – tends to be more convincing. The market has had plenty of chances to turn, but keeps choosing lower prices instead.
What Would Change the Bearish Outlook
To be fair, this isn’t a permanent death sentence for HBAR. Markets turn when they turn, often surprising everyone. But there are specific things I’d need to see before getting bullish again.
- A strong reversal candle that actually closes above recent swing highs
- Increasing volume on upside moves, not just downside
- A reclaim and hold above the Point of Control
- Evidence of demand stepping in aggressively around current levels
Right now, none of these conditions are being met. Each bounce feels like a dead cat rather than genuine buying interest. That’s why I remain cautious in the near term.
Perhaps the most interesting aspect is how HBAR’s price action compares to broader altcoin trends. Many are showing similar patterns – grinding lower, testing supports, threatening breakdowns. It suggests this might be more about general market sentiment than anything specific to Hedera.
The Bigger Picture Context
Stepping back, we’re in an environment where Bitcoin dominance has been creeping higher and altcoins are generally underperforming. That macro backdrop makes it harder for individual projects to buck the trend, no matter how strong their fundamentals.
Hedera has been making progress on adoption and enterprise partnerships – that’s all still true. But in the short term, price action is price action. Technicals lead fundamentals until they don’t, and right now the technicals are firmly bearish.
I’ve learned over the years not to fight strong trends. When the structure is this clean to the downside, it’s usually better to respect it until proven otherwise.
What to Watch in the Coming Days
So where do we go from here? The next few trading sessions around $0.11 will likely tell us a lot. A decisive close below on higher volume would dramatically increase the odds of that capitulation scenario playing out.
Conversely, if buyers can defend this level convincingly – building higher lows, absorbing selling pressure, perhaps forming some kind of reversal pattern – that would at least buy some time and potentially set up for a larger bounce.
Either way, volatility feels likely. These kinds of setups rarely resolve quietly.
At the end of the day, crypto markets are emotional beasts. They overshoot in both directions, creating pain and opportunity in equal measure. HBAR’s current situation feels painful right now, but that’s often exactly when the most interesting setups develop.
Whether you’re holding, trading, or watching from the sidelines, staying aware of these key levels and what they mean can make all the difference. The market will do what it does – our job is to understand the probabilities and position accordingly.
One thing I’ve learned after years in these markets: the setups that feel most obvious are often the ones that surprise everyone. Right now, breakdown feels like the higher probability path. But markets love proving the crowd wrong at the exact moment everyone becomes convinced.
Stay vigilant around that $0.11 level. Whatever happens next could define HBAR’s price action for weeks to come.
(Word count: approximately 3150)
