Picture this: Bitcoin hovering around $87,000 on Christmas Eve, down slightly for the day but still up solidly over the past week. The market feels quiet, almost sleepy ahead of the holidays. Yet one seasoned macro analyst is out there saying we’re smack in the middle of a bull run that still has plenty of gas left in the tank. It’s the kind of take that makes you pause and wonder if the real fireworks are yet to come.
I’ve followed crypto cycles long enough to know that timing the market is notoriously tricky. But when someone with serious institutional credentials steps forward with a measured, fundamentals-driven case for more upside, it deserves attention. That’s exactly what happened recently when a well-known macro investor shared his updated view on where Bitcoin stands today.
Why This Analyst Sees Bitcoin as Mid-Cycle
The core argument boils down to a simple but powerful observation: Bitcoin’s price relative to gold has barely budged since 2021, even though the underlying ecosystem has matured dramatically in the meantime. Think about everything that’s changed—spot ETFs launching, major corporations adding BTC to balance sheets, clearer regulatory paths emerging. To this analyst, that disconnect screams opportunity.
Lower interest rates back in 2021 certainly helped fuel the last peak, no question. But the structural improvements since then feel far more significant. The space has grown up. Revenue streams have diversified. Governance standards have tightened. And perhaps most importantly, traditional finance is finally opening its doors wide.
The Power of Public Market Listings
One of the biggest catalysts ahead, according to this view, lies in crypto companies going public on major U.S. exchanges. We’re not just talking about one or two isolated IPOs. The pipeline appears robust: established exchanges preparing filings, prominent funds gearing up, even merger and acquisition activity picking up steam.
Why does this matter so much? Because listing on the NYSE or Nasdaq forces a level of transparency and accountability that institutional investors crave. Clean books, proper audits, board oversight—these aren’t sexy, but they’re essential for unlocking billions in sidelined capital. Once those gates swing open, fresh liquidity can flow in ways we’ve only glimpsed so far.
When successful private digital asset firms transition to public markets, entirely new sources of capital become available.
In my experience watching markets, legitimacy often arrives in stages. First comes skepticism, then tolerance, and finally enthusiastic embrace. Public listings tend to mark that final shift. They validate the entire sector in the eyes of traditional allocators who previously kept crypto at arm’s length.
The Americanization of Crypto
Another fascinating angle is what the analyst describes as the “Americanization” of cryptocurrency. It’s a trend that’s hard to ignore when you look at the numbers. U.S. equity markets dwarf their European and Asian counterparts combined—a gap that’s only widened since the financial crisis.
While many overseas indices still languish near levels from 2008, the Nasdaq has multiplied more than tenfold. That dominance creates a powerful gravitational pull. Global blockchain projects increasingly eye American capital markets for growth, whether through direct listings, SPACs, or reverse takeovers.
- U.S. political support for digital assets growing in Washington
- Favorable conditions for innovation compared to stricter regimes elsewhere
- Dollar-denominated stablecoins dominating global volume
- Deep pools of institutional capital seeking yield
Add it all together, and you get a compelling case for America emerging as the clear hub for crypto capital formation. That shift could accelerate dramatically over the coming years, bringing more mature companies into public view and broadening investor access.
Stablecoins: The Quiet Revolution
Speaking of underappreciated developments, stablecoin adoption continues to surge almost unnoticed by mainstream headlines. Just five years ago, meaningful dollar-pegged volume barely existed. Today it’s a multi-hundred-billion-dollar ecosystem facilitating trades, remittances, and yield strategies worldwide.
Most of that growth remains tied to USD tokens—a subtle but important reinforcement of American financial influence. As regulatory clarity improves domestically, expect even faster expansion. Stablecoins aren’t flashy like meme coins, but they form the plumbing that keeps everything running smoothly.
From a cycle perspective, widespread stablecoin infrastructure means capital can move in and out of crypto assets with unprecedented efficiency. That reduces friction during both accumulation and distribution phases, potentially extending bull market duration compared to previous cycles.
Catching Up to Precious Metals
Perhaps the most intriguing claim is that Bitcoin should eventually catch up to gold and silver’s strong 2024 performance. Both traditional safe-haven assets posted impressive gains while BTC consolidated for much of the year. Yet the fundamental case for digital scarcity arguably strengthened during that same period.
Consider the parallels and differences:
| Asset | 2024 Performance Driver | Key Narrative |
| Gold | Central bank buying, inflation hedge | Traditional store of value |
| Silver | Industrial demand surge | Dual monetary/industrial role |
| Bitcoin | Institutional adoption, ETF flows | Digital gold narrative maturing |
If Bitcoin truly functions as “digital gold” for younger generations and tech-native institutions, then relative underperformance against physical precious metals creates a classic mean-reversion setup. Of course, nothing is guaranteed in markets, but the asymmetry feels noteworthy.
How Many Public Crypto Companies Ahead?
Looking further out, estimates suggest we currently have maybe five to ten meaningful publicly traded crypto-native firms. Within five years, that number could easily swell to fifty or more as the sector matures and profitability improves.
That’s not just speculation—it’s a logical extension of current trends. Mining operations scaling, exchanges expanding globally, infrastructure providers building recurring revenue, custody solutions gaining enterprise clients. Each vertical contains multiple candidates for eventual public debuts.
The ripple effects would be substantial. Broader analyst coverage. Inclusion in major indices. Passive fund inflows. All the mechanics that turned tech stocks into household names during previous decades could play out again, this time for blockchain companies.
What This Means for Cycle Timing
Putting it all together, the mid-cycle thesis rests on a straightforward premise: most of the really transformative catalysts still lie ahead rather than behind us. ETF approvals were huge, certainly. But public company creation, widespread corporate treasury adoption, and nation-state accumulation feel like later-stage developments.
Previous bull markets often featured distinct phases. Early retail frenzy giving way to institutional FOMO, followed by corporate participation and eventually sovereign interest. If that pattern holds, we’re transitioning from phase two toward phase three—typically where the most violent upside occurs.
Naturally, risks remain plentiful. Macro conditions could deteriorate. Regulatory setbacks aren’t impossible. Technical breakdowns can always trigger cascades. But from a pure supply-demand standpoint, shrinking exchange reserves, steady ETF accumulation, and growing self-custody trends paint a constructive picture.
Personal Take: Patience Often Pays
I’ve learned over years of watching crypto that the crowd usually gets the direction right but the timing wrong. When sentiment swings to extreme greed, tops form. When despair dominates, bottoms emerge. Right now, we’re in that awkward middle ground where enthusiasm exists but hasn’t reached fever pitch.
That environment often rewards patience more than aggressive trading. The foundations being laid today—better regulation, public market access, infrastructure scaling—aren’t the kind of things that create overnight moonshots. They’re the boring but essential building blocks for sustainable long-term growth.
Whether Bitcoin blasts through $100k soon or consolidates longer while alts catch fire, the bigger story appears intact. A multi-year secular trend toward digital asset adoption continues unfolding, driven increasingly by American institutions and innovation.
So as we head into 2026, the question isn’t really whether another leg higher arrives. It’s more about how violent that move becomes once traditional capital finally commits in size. Mid-cycle indeed feels like the right description—for now, anyway.
Whatever happens next, staying informed and avoiding emotional extremes remains the best approach. Markets reward those who respect both opportunity and risk in equal measure. Here’s to an interesting year ahead.
