Every December, like clockwork, a massive document drops into the inboxes of thousands of investors, traders, and curious observers. It’s raw, unfiltered, and often brutally honest. I’m talking about Dave Collum’s annual Year in Review – a tradition that’s been running for nearly two decades and has grown into something of a cult classic in finance circles.
This year’s edition feels different, though. There’s a weariness woven through the wit, a sense that the author is standing at a crossroads. And honestly, after reading through it, I get it. The world feels upside down, facts seem fluid, and the financial markets are floating on air thicker than ever before.
A Changing of the Guard
Collum, a chemistry professor who’s spent decades dissecting markets as a hobby, starts with something personal this year. He’s wrapping up a career, reflecting on life, and questioning whether these marathon reviews are still worth the grind. It’s not just burnout talking – it’s a deeper frustration with a world where truth feels increasingly elusive.
He’s not wrong. We’ve moved from debating facts to debating what constitutes a fact at all. Social media amplified voices, then algorithms silenced them. Propaganda isn’t just for wartime anymore – it’s daily life. And in markets? Well, that’s where things get really interesting.
The Metalverse Awakens
Perhaps the biggest story of 2025 wasn’t stocks or crypto – it was precious metals finally having their moment in the sun.
Gold broke out in a way that caught even seasoned observers off guard, climbing steadily through the year amid central bank buying, geopolitical tension, and growing distrust in paper currencies. But silver and especially platinum? Those were the real fireworks.
“For the first time in my investing experience the big three precious metals… earned serious attention.”
Silver posted triple-digit gains. Platinum, long forgotten at the discount rack, suddenly looked like the most compelling opportunity in decades. Supply constraints, industrial demand, and shifting global dynamics created what might be a perfect storm.
The numbers tell a stark story. Above-ground platinum supplies have been shrinking dramatically while demand – particularly from catalytic converters and emerging green technologies – keeps growing. At current prices, the entire visible supply could theoretically be absorbed by a single determined buyer with a few billion dollars.
- Gold up over 60% in 2025
- Silver delivering 130% returns
- Platinum ETFs showing massive inflows after years of neglect
- Central banks continuing their gold accumulation at record pace
The Everything Bubble Keeps Expanding
While metals surged, traditional stocks kept grinding higher too – but on what foundation?
Valuation metrics are now at levels that dwarf even the dot-com peak. Price-to-sales ratios sit at 3x historical norms. The Buffett indicator – market cap to GDP – has been flashing red for years. Profit margins remain elevated thanks to decades of falling interest rates, but that tailwind has clearly turned into a headwind.
Perhaps most concerning is how concentrated returns have become. A handful of massive technology companies have driven virtually all the gains, while breadth remains dangerously narrow. We’ve seen this movie before.
“Three epic bubbles in just 25 years isn’t creative destruction – it’s creative demolition.”
Passive investing has changed everything. Money flows into index funds regardless of price, pushing the largest stocks ever higher. Active managers, short sellers, even basic price discovery – all have been casualties of this shift.
The Hidden Risks Building Beneath the Surface
Beneath the calm surface of rising prices, pressure is building in multiple areas that could trigger the next major move – and it probably won’t be upward.
Private equity has grown into a multi-trillion-dollar behemoth with opaque pricing and massive embedded leverage. Commercial real estate faces a reckoning as remote work persists and debt rolls over at much higher rates. Household debt, corporate debt, government debt – all continue climbing while savings rates collapse.
The AI boom deserves special mention. Trillions are being poured into infrastructure with uncertain returns. Data centers, power demands, chip production – all expanding rapidly on borrowed money and hoped-for future earnings. History suggests these capital expenditure booms rarely end gently.
- $38 trillion in US debt maturing in coming years
- Private credit markets growing in shadows
- Commercial real estate delinquencies rising
- AI infrastructure buildout consuming massive capital
- Pension funds heavily committed to illiquid alternatives
Personal Portfolio Performance
Despite all these concerns, Collum’s own portfolio had a strong year – up over 30% – largely thanks to heavy precious metals exposure.
His largest positions remain in fixed income and physical gold, with growing allocations to silver and especially platinum through ETFs. Energy exposure helped, as did selective mining positions. The biggest winner? Staying disciplined and avoiding overvalued mainstream equities.
Notably absent: any meaningful exposure to the magnificent tech names that dominated headlines. Sometimes the best trades are the ones you don’t make.
The Bigger Picture: A Fourth Turning?
Collum references Strauss and Howe’s generational theory, suggesting we’re deep into a “Fourth Turning” – a period of crisis that reshapes society. Institutions built during calmer times come under severe stress.
Trust in media, government, academia, medicine – all have eroded dramatically. Financial systems built on endless debt expansion face mathematical limits. Global alliances shift as reserve currency status comes into question.
These aren’t just investment problems. They’re civilizational questions playing out in real time.
Looking Ahead: Caution Warranted
The central message isn’t that disaster is imminent tomorrow. It’s that risk has rarely been higher while complacency appears widespread.
Markets at all-time highs with extreme valuations have historically been dangerous places to allocate fresh capital aggressively. The path back to historical norms could take years or decades, with profound implications for retirement plans built on 8-10% expected returns.
“There has never been an overvalued market that failed to find its way back to cheap.”
Precious metals offer one potential hedge against currency debasement and financial instability. Real assets, conservative positioning, and dry powder for future opportunities might serve investors better than chasing momentum at peak valuations.
Perhaps most importantly, Collum reminds us that time horizons matter. What feels urgent today may prove fleeting. What seems permanent often isn’t. And sometimes the hardest part of investing isn’t finding opportunities – it’s having the patience and capital to act when they finally appear.
As he closes this chapter of his annual tradition, there’s a sense of transition. Not just for one writer wrapping up a remarkable series, but potentially for markets and society themselves. The next few years could prove pivotal.
Whatever comes next, one thing remains clear: understanding the difference between price and value has rarely mattered more.
