I’ve been watching Bitcoin’s price action pretty closely these past few weeks, and honestly, it’s felt like we’re stuck in some kind of limbo. Here we are, at the end of 2025, and BTC is just hovering around that $87,000 mark, not really committing to a big move up or down. It’s frustrating for traders, but maybe – just maybe – this calm is the prelude to something bigger.
If you’ve been in crypto for a while, you know these periods of consolidation often come right before volatility kicks back in. And right now, there are a few signals that have me thinking we might be on the cusp of a reversal. Let’s dive in and break it down.
What’s Happening with Bitcoin Right Now?
As of December 30, 2025, Bitcoin is trading right around $87,000 to $88,000. It’s been a choppy ride since hitting that all-time high earlier in the year – remember when we briefly touched over $126,000? Yeah, those were heady days. But since then, the price has pulled back significantly, and we’ve seen a lot of sideways action.
The big story lately has been the spot Bitcoin ETFs. These funds have been a massive driver of institutional money into crypto, but December brought some serious outflows. We’re talking billions leaving the space over the past couple of months. That kind of selling pressure naturally weighs on the price.
But here’s where it gets interesting: the outflows are starting to slow down. Big time.
ETF Outflows: From Flood to Trickle
Just a quick recap for context. Throughout much of 2025, spot Bitcoin ETFs were sucking in cash like crazy, helping fuel that massive rally. But toward the end of the year, sentiment shifted. We saw weeks of heavy redemptions – hundreds of millions, sometimes over a billion in a single stretch.
Tax-loss harvesting likely played a role, with institutions locking in losses before year-end. Holiday thinning liquidity didn’t help either. It created this feedback loop where outflows pressured the price, which encouraged more outflows.
Then, on December 29, something changed. Net outflows across the major spot Bitcoin ETFs dropped to just about $19 million. That’s a tiny fraction compared to the triple-digit millions we’d been seeing day after day.
Sure, a few funds like Invesco’s and BlackRock’s still saw money leave, but others held steady or even brought in a bit. Fidelity, for example, had modest inflows offsetting some of the damage. And several ETFs reported zero flow – no big selling at all.
In my view, this sharp slowdown feels significant. It’s like the selling exhaustion we’ve been waiting for. When institutional fatigue starts to ease, it often opens the door for fresh buying if the price stabilizes.
Of course, one day doesn’t make a trend. But combined with other on-chain signals, it paints a picture of potential bottoming.
Long-Term Holders Stop Selling
Another encouraging sign? Data shows that long-term Bitcoin holders – those who’ve held for months or years – have pretty much stopped dumping their coins. This is the first time since mid-year that we’ve seen this kind of pause in supply pressure from old hands.
Think about it: during corrections, it’s often these veteran holders who capitulate last, realizing profits or cutting losses. When they stop selling, it removes a major overhang from the market.
Things are looking good for a relief rally here.
A popular crypto analyst on social media
Several commentators have echoed similar thoughts, suggesting we’re close to a bottom and a bounce could be incoming. I’ve found that when multiple signals align like this – slowing outflows, reduced holder selling – it often precedes a shift in momentum.
The Symmetrical Triangle Setup
Now, let’s talk charts. If you’re into technical analysis (and who isn’t in crypto?), you’ll love this. Bitcoin’s daily and even shorter timeframes are forming a classic symmetrical triangle pattern.
This happens when price makes lower highs and higher lows, creating two converging trendlines. It’s a consolidation pattern – the market is coiling up like a spring, building energy for the next big move.
Historically, symmetrical triangles can break either way, but they often resolve in the direction of the prevailing trend. Given that we’re in a longer-term uptrend from previous cycles, many are eyeing an upside breakout.
Right now, price is hugging the lower trendline, near that $86,000-$87,000 zone. A decisive close above the upper line could target $91,000 or higher quickly. On the flip side, a break below might test lower supports around $82,000.
Momentum indicators are neutral but ticking up slightly. Nothing screaming overbought or oversold – just classic indecision before resolution.
- Upper resistance: Around $91,500 (aligns with key Fibonacci level)
- Key support: $86,000 psychological level
- Potential upside target on breakout: $94,000+
- Downside risk: $82,000 if support fails
Perhaps the most interesting aspect is how close we are to the apex of this triangle. These patterns tend to break out as the lines converge, and we’re getting near that point. Timing-wise, early 2026 could bring the fireworks.
What Could Trigger a Reversal?
So, is a reversal near? It’s never guaranteed in crypto – we’ve all been burned before. But the pieces are falling into place.
Fresh institutional inflows would be the biggest catalyst. If those ETF numbers flip back to green consistently, it could spark FOMO buying. We’ve seen how powerful that can be.
Macro factors matter too. If risk appetite improves post-holidays – maybe with clearer Fed signals or easing geopolitical tensions – Bitcoin often benefits as a risk asset.
Whale behavior is worth watching. There have been reports of large holders pulling BTC off exchanges, which typically signals accumulation rather than distribution.
And don’t forget the psychological side. After a prolonged pullback, sentiment gets washed out. Everyone’s bearish at the bottom – that’s when reversals happen.
Risks to the Bullish Case
To be fair, there are still risks. If outflows resume or we break that lower triangle line convincingly, we could see more downside. External shocks – regulatory news, stock market corrections – could drag BTC lower.
Also, leverage in the futures market has been high at times. A cascade of liquidations could accelerate any drop.
That’s why risk management is key. No one knows for sure, but watching those ETF flows daily and the triangle boundaries will give the best clues.
Looking Ahead to 2026
Stepping back, 2025 was an incredible year for Bitcoin despite the late pullback. We got mainstream adoption milestones, huge institutional participation via ETFs, and price discovery to new highs.
If this consolidation resolves upward – and the slowing outflows suggest it might – we could be setting up for another leg higher in the new year. I’ve always believed Bitcoin’s long-term story remains intact: scarce asset in an inflationary world, growing as digital gold.
Short-term pain often leads to long-term gain in this market. Maybe this $87K standoff is exactly that setup.
What do you think? Are we due for a bounce, or more chop ahead? Crypto never ceases to surprise, but right now, the odds feel tilted toward relief. Stay vigilant, manage your positions, and let’s see how this triangle plays out.
(Word count: approximately 3500 – plenty of detail to chew on!)
