Will HOOD Stock Rise or Fall After Earnings?

Imagine staring at your trading screen as the clock ticks toward after-hours on a chilly February evening. The stock you’ve been watching—Robinhood Markets, ticker HOOD—has already swung wildly this year. One day it’s riding high on crypto optimism, the next it’s getting hammered by broader market nerves. Tomorrow, February 10, 2026, the company drops its fourth-quarter results, and everyone’s asking the same question: will this report send the shares soaring or straight back down?

I’ve followed HOOD closely for years, and let me tell you, these earnings calls always feel like high-stakes poker. The platform that democratized trading for millions still carries that reputation for volatility. But beneath the noise, there are real numbers, shifting trends, and analyst opinions worth unpacking. Let’s dive in and see what might actually happen when the results land.

The Big Picture: Why February 10 Matters So Much

Robinhood isn’t just another brokerage anymore. It has evolved into a multifaceted fintech player with fingers in stocks, options, cryptocurrency, and even emerging areas like prediction markets. The fourth quarter of 2025 was a mixed bag for markets overall—Bitcoin took a breather after previous highs, interest rates lingered in uncertain territory, and retail traders showed signs of caution. Against that backdrop, HOOD’s performance becomes a litmus test for how resilient the company really is.

What makes this release particularly intriguing is the contrast between fundamentals and sentiment. On one hand, the business keeps adding users and assets under management. On the other, macro pressures and competition from bigger players never quite disappear. As someone who’s seen multiple earnings cycles play out, I find it fascinating how quickly perceptions can shift based on a few key metrics.

What Wall Street Expects From the Numbers

Analysts have been busy fine-tuning their models ahead of the report. The consensus points to earnings per share landing somewhere around $0.62 to $0.63. That’s a respectable figure, though it’s down from the unusually strong year-ago quarter. Revenue, however, tells a more encouraging story—most forecasts cluster around $1.32 billion to $1.35 billion, representing roughly 30-32% growth year-over-year.

Those are solid increases, driven partly by steady options activity, net interest income, and contributions from newer initiatives. One analyst recently pointed out that even with softer crypto volumes, other segments like prediction markets and international expansion could deliver pleasant surprises. In my view, that’s where the real upside lies—if management highlights momentum in those areas, traders might overlook any short-term crypto softness.

The combination of diversified revenue streams and user growth continues to position the company well, even in choppy markets.

– Equity research analyst

Of course, expectations can be a double-edged sword. Beat them convincingly, and the stock tends to gap higher. Miss—even slightly—and the reaction can be swift and painful. Options markets are pricing in a potential move of around 9-11% in either direction post-earnings, which is fairly aggressive for a name of this size.

The Bull Case: Reasons HOOD Could Jump Higher

Let’s start with the optimistic angle because there’s plenty to like. Robinhood has spent the past couple of years broadening its appeal beyond the meme-stock crowd. Gold subscriptions keep climbing, platform assets have ballooned, and the user base remains sticky. Recent quarters showed funded customers pushing past 26 million, with premium subscribers approaching 4 million.

• Strong transaction-based revenue from options and equities, even if crypto cooled off.
• Net interest income benefiting from elevated rates.
• Newer products like tokenized assets in Europe and prediction markets gaining traction.
• Analyst upgrades rolling in—some firms recently bumped ratings to Outperform with targets well above current levels.

Wall Street’s average price target sits comfortably in triple digits, with several voices calling for $130-$150 or higher. That’s a hefty premium to where shares trade today. If the company guides optimistically for 2026 or highlights accelerating user engagement, it’s easy to envision a sharp rally. I’ve watched similar setups before, and when sentiment flips positive, momentum can carry the stock quite far.

Perhaps the most compelling part is the valuation argument. After pulling back from earlier peaks, HOOD trades at a multiple that looks reasonable given its growth trajectory. If revenue keeps compounding and profitability improves, the path toward those higher targets starts looking realistic.

The Bearish Perspective: Risks That Could Drag It Lower

But no story is one-sided. Technical charts show HOOD still stuck in a broader downtrend from last year’s highs. The price has struggled to reclaim key moving averages, and momentum indicators remain cautious. A death cross between shorter- and longer-term averages has been threatening to form, which often spooks traders.

From a fundamental standpoint, any slowdown in retail activity or further crypto weakness could weigh on results. The fourth quarter included a period of market turbulence, and transaction volumes in some areas might not have held up as well as hoped. If guidance disappoints or management sounds guarded about near-term trends, sellers could easily take control.

1. Potential sequential decline in certain revenue lines due to lower market volatility.
2. Ongoing competition from established brokers and newer fintech challengers.
3. Macro uncertainty—interest rates, inflation expectations, and equity market direction all play a role.
4. History of post-earnings volatility—sharp moves both ways have happened before.

In my experience, when a stock is already digesting a big prior run-up, any hint of a miss can trigger outsized downside. Support levels around recent lows could come into play quickly if sentiment sours.

Key Metrics to Watch During the Call

Beyond the headline EPS and revenue figures, the real story often hides in the details. Pay close attention to net deposits—strong inflows signal confidence from users. Gold subscriber additions and total platform assets will show whether the premium push is working. Also, any commentary on crypto trading volumes versus other segments could reveal how diversified the business truly is.

Management tends to emphasize long-term initiatives during these calls. Listen for updates on international growth, product launches, or regulatory progress. Those forward-looking statements can move the needle more than the backward-looking numbers.

These numbers will paint a clearer picture of whether the company is firing on all cylinders or hitting speed bumps.

Historical Context: How HOOD Has Reacted Before

One thing I’ve learned following this name—earnings reactions are rarely muted. Previous releases have produced double-digit percentage swings in after-hours trading. Sometimes the move extends into the next session; other times it reverses quickly. The key is whether the results align with—or exceed—the narrative Wall Street has built.

Last fall’s report triggered an initial pop followed by a pullback as traders locked in gains. Earlier cycles showed similar patterns. Volatility is baked into the DNA here, so position sizing and risk management become critical if you’re planning to trade around the event.

My Take: Balanced but Slightly Tilted

After weighing everything—the bullish analyst chorus, the solid growth estimates, the technical caution, and the ever-present crypto influence—I lean toward a cautiously optimistic outcome. I suspect the company delivers numbers that at least meet, if not modestly beat, expectations. Guidance could provide the spark if management sounds confident about 2026.

That said, I’m not ignoring the risks. The stock has room to run if sentiment improves, but it also has support levels that could be tested if things go sideways. Perhaps the most interesting aspect is how HOOD has matured. It no longer lives and dies solely by meme frenzies or Bitcoin rallies. That evolution gives it more staying power than many realize.

Whatever happens on February 10, one thing is certain: the next few trading sessions will be lively. Whether you’re a long-term holder or a short-term trader, staying glued to the updates will be essential. The market loves a good story, and Robinhood knows how to deliver one.

At the end of the day, earnings are just one chapter. The bigger question is whether Robinhood can keep executing on its vision in a competitive, fast-changing industry. From where I sit, the foundation looks stronger than ever—even if the path includes a few bumps along the way.

Now we wait. Tomorrow’s report will give us the next set of clues. Until then, keep an eye on pre-market action and options flow—they often telegraph what big players are thinking.