Signs Pointing to a Tentative Turnaround in the UK Property Scene
One of the most encouraging shifts comes from buyer enquiries. Professionals on the ground report that interest from new prospective purchasers has improved noticeably. The measure of this sentiment moved to less negative territory recently, climbing from deeper lows seen in previous months. This suggests more people are at least window-shopping again, perhaps encouraged by slightly better affordability signals or simply deciding the time feels right to start looking.
Agreed sales tell a similar story. The net reading for completed transactions has become the least pessimistic in quite some time. While still in negative territory overall, the direction is clearly upward compared to where things stood just a few months back. In my view, this gradual improvement in actual deals getting done is one of the strongest hints that momentum might be building, even if it’s slow.
House prices themselves seem to be finding a floor. The balance of professionals reporting falls versus rises over recent months has improved steadily. It’s still showing more declines than increases nationally, but the gap is narrowing significantly from the weakest points last autumn. Regional differences stand out here—some northern areas and parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland are performing better, while southern regions, especially around the capital, continue to face tougher affordability headwinds.
What the Short-Term Outlook Looks Like
Near-term expectations remain fairly cautious. When asked about sales over the coming three months, sentiment eased a touch but stayed modestly positive overall. This reflects ongoing worries—perhaps lingering effects of higher borrowing costs or general economic jitters. It’s understandable; many buyers are still weighing up whether now is truly the moment to commit.
Yet zoom out to the next twelve months, and the mood brightens considerably. Optimism for sales volumes over the full year reached its strongest level in over a year. That kind of forward-looking confidence doesn’t appear out of nowhere. It hints that professionals believe conditions could steadily improve as borrowing costs potentially ease further and confidence rebuilds.
There are early signs that market conditions may be improving after a challenging period, although activity levels are still subdued, meaning any recovery is likely to be gradual.
– Chief economist, professional property body
This comment captures the nuance perfectly. No one’s popping champagne corks, but the trajectory feels different from late last year.
House Price Expectations: Mixed but Improving
Looking specifically at prices, the short-term view remains soft. More respondents still anticipate downward pressure over the next quarter than upward. Recent movements in borrowing costs—some edging higher lately—plus persistent inflation concerns, explain part of this caution.
But flip to the year-ahead perspective, and sentiment flips positive. A solid majority now expect prices to rise over the coming twelve months—the most upbeat reading in quite a while. This divergence between near-term caution and longer-term hope is fascinating. It suggests many in the industry see headwinds easing as the year progresses, perhaps tied to expectations around monetary policy or broader economic stability.
- Buyer demand showing incremental gains month by month
- Sales volumes less weak than recent lows
- Price falls moderating nationally
- Stronger optimism for the full year ahead
- Regional variations with northern areas outperforming
These points together paint a picture of stabilization rather than dramatic rebound. Perhaps the most interesting aspect is how this aligns with wider economic signals. Lower borrowing costs take time to fully feed through, but when they do, they tend to support activity.
Influencing Factors: Mortgage Rates and Broader Confidence
Mortgage pricing remains a critical driver. After declines through much of last year, some rates ticked up recently. Central bank policy held steady in early 2026 amid sticky inflation readings. That combination has kept some potential buyers on the sidelines.
Yet the longer view assumes rates trend lower as inflationary pressures moderate. Real wage growth, if sustained, could also help affordability. Combine that with any pickup in buyer confidence, and transaction volumes could gradually climb. I’ve always thought confidence is half the battle in property—when people feel the market is moving, they often jump in before conditions look perfect.
Supply constraints add another layer. Stock levels remain tight in many places, which tends to support prices even when demand is subdued. Rental markets, incidentally, continue showing upward pressure due to similar supply-demand imbalances.
Regional Differences Worth Noting
Not everywhere is moving in lockstep. Scotland and Northern Ireland continue reporting relatively stronger price trends. Parts of northern England show upward momentum too. Meanwhile, southern regions—London, the South East, South West, East Anglia—lag noticeably. Affordability challenges remain acute there, with higher entry prices and wage-to-house-price ratios still stretched.
This patchwork pattern isn’t new, but it underscores how national averages can mask local realities. Buyers in stronger regions might feel more optimistic right now, while those in pricier areas weigh options more carefully.
What Could Accelerate—or Derail—the Recovery?
Several factors could tip the balance. Continued easing in borrowing costs would obviously help. If inflation trends convincingly toward target levels, policy makers might have room for further adjustments, feeding through to cheaper mortgages.
Broader macro confidence matters too. Stable employment, real income growth, and clarity on fiscal direction all play roles. Political developments can sway sentiment quickly—uncertainty at the top can pause decisions, while clear direction often unlocks activity.
On the flip side, renewed inflationary spikes, unexpected rate hikes, or global shocks could stall progress. Property markets hate surprises, especially when affordability is already stretched.
In my experience following these cycles, recoveries rarely look linear. They stutter, pause, then gather pace. Right now, the data leans toward the early, hesitant phase—promising, but requiring patience.
Stepping back, the UK housing market feels like it’s catching its breath after a difficult period. The latest professional sentiment survey highlights incremental improvements in enquiries, sales, and price expectations. While activity remains subdued and short-term caution persists, the longer-term outlook carries real optimism.
Whether this tentative improvement blossoms into something more sustained will hinge on borrowing costs, economic confidence, and how quickly affordability improves. For now, though, the direction feels encouraging. Buyers, sellers, and investors might reasonably start planning with a bit more hope than they had just a few months ago.
Keep watching those monthly updates—they’ll tell us whether these green shoots strengthen or need more time to take root. The property market rarely moves in straight lines, but sometimes the smallest shifts signal the biggest turns ahead.
