Have you ever watched a cryptocurrency quietly build strength under the surface, only to suddenly burst higher when everyone least expects it? That’s exactly the feeling surrounding Hedera right now. As February 2026 draws to a close, HBAR has delivered an impressive rebound, climbing roughly 8% over the past week while the broader market finds its footing again. What makes this move particularly interesting isn’t just the price action—it’s the underlying fundamentals lighting up in ways that smart money can’t ignore.
In my view, moments like these separate the noise from real opportunity in crypto. When network activity picks up alongside technical signals aligning bullishly, it’s often a sign that something meaningful is brewing. Let’s dive into why Hedera seems poised for more upside and whether this momentum has legs.
Why Hedera Is Suddenly Grabbing Attention Again
The crypto space moves fast, and it’s easy to overlook projects that aren’t constantly making headlines. Yet Hedera has been steadily carving out a niche as an enterprise-grade network, thanks to its unique hashgraph consensus and a governing council packed with global heavyweights. Lately though, the spotlight has returned because of tangible improvements in usage metrics that directly support price discovery.
One of the clearest drivers behind the recent rally has been the sharp increase in stablecoin holdings on the network. Over the past seven days alone, the total stablecoin supply has jumped by nearly 17%, with the majority tied to USDC. This isn’t random—when more stable value flows into a blockchain, it usually signals growing transaction volume, DeFi experimentation, or users parking capital for yield opportunities.
Stablecoins: The Quiet Engine Behind Network Growth
Think about it this way: stablecoins act like the bloodstream of any blockchain ecosystem. Without sufficient liquidity in dollar-pegged assets, it’s tough for users to trade, lend, borrow, or simply move value efficiently. On Hedera, the surge suggests more participants are actively engaging—whether that’s businesses settling payments, developers building applications, or retail users exploring options.
I’ve always believed that on-chain activity is one of the most reliable leading indicators for price. When people actually use a network instead of just holding tokens, it creates real demand for the native asset needed to pay fees. Hedera’s low, predictable transaction costs make it especially attractive for high-volume use cases, and the stablecoin uptick appears to confirm that appeal is translating into adoption.
- More stablecoin supply often correlates with higher transaction throughput
- USDC dominance on Hedera highlights institutional-grade trust
- Increased liquidity supports smoother DeFi and payment flows
- Network fees paid in HBAR rise alongside usage
Of course, correlation isn’t causation, but the pattern holds across multiple cycles. When stablecoin metrics heat up, native tokens frequently follow—sometimes dramatically.
Derivatives Market Signals Growing Bullish Conviction
Beyond the spot market, futures traders are starting to place more bullish bets. Open interest in HBAR perpetual contracts has ticked higher recently, and the weighted funding rate has flipped positive. For those unfamiliar, a positive funding rate means longs are paying shorts to keep positions open—essentially a market tax that reflects stronger demand from buyers expecting prices to rise.
This shift in sentiment among leveraged players often precedes bigger spot moves. It’s like watching the smart money position itself ahead of a trend change. In my experience following derivatives data, these early flips can be remarkably prescient, especially when combined with improving fundamentals.
Positive funding rates tend to attract more momentum traders, creating a self-reinforcing cycle as long as the trend holds.
— Seasoned crypto derivatives analyst
That said, derivatives can also amplify volatility, so it’s worth keeping an eye on whether this conviction sustains or fizzles if broader market conditions sour.
Breaking Down the Technical Setup
Now let’s talk charts, because the technical picture is arguably the most exciting part right now. On the daily timeframe, HBAR has decisively broken above a descending trendline that had capped upside since late last year. That kind of breakout from multi-month resistance often marks the beginning of a trend reversal, shifting control from sellers to buyers.
Even more compelling is the developing moving average crossover. The 20-day simple moving average is inching closer to crossing above the 50-day SMA—a classic short-term bullish signal that has sparked sharp rallies in many altcoins historically. If confirmed, it could act as rocket fuel for the next leg higher.
The MACD is also turning constructive, with lines trending upward and approaching a potential zero-line cross. Momentum is clearly building, and the chart looks primed for continuation if volume supports the move.
- Break above descending trendline resistance signals reversal
- Imminent 20/50 SMA bullish crossover
- MACD lines rising toward zero
- Next major target aligns with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement near $0.12
Of course, no setup is bulletproof. If price fails to hold above the 20-day SMA around $0.097, bears could regain control and push toward lower supports. But right now, the balance tilts toward optimism.
Broader Market Context and Potential Catalysts
Hedera isn’t rallying in a vacuum. Bitcoin has reclaimed important support levels, tech stocks are showing strength, and risk appetite is improving across asset classes. When the king of crypto steadies, altcoins often catch a bid—especially those with strong narratives like Hedera’s focus on enterprise utility and real-world applications.
Looking ahead, several potential catalysts could keep the momentum alive. Continued growth in stablecoin and transaction metrics would reinforce the adoption story. Any positive developments around real-world asset tokenization or regulatory clarity for enterprise DLTs could act as major triggers. Even modest inflows into related investment products would help, though demand for HBAR-specific vehicles has been underwhelming compared to some peers so far.
Perhaps the most intriguing aspect is how Hedera’s carbon-negative status and predictable economics position it well for institutional interest in a world increasingly focused on ESG factors. If more corporations experiment with blockchain for supply chain, payments, or identity, Hedera’s design advantages could shine.
Risks That Could Derail the Rally
Let’s be real—no crypto story is without risks. Broader market corrections remain a constant threat, especially if macroeconomic headwinds return. Regulatory uncertainty could also weigh on sentiment, particularly for projects tied to enterprise use cases that attract scrutiny.
On the technical side, failure to confirm the bullish crossover or a rejection at higher resistance could lead to a retest of recent lows. Low demand for certain HBAR-related investment products might limit institutional fuel compared to other layer-1 networks that have seen stronger flows.
In my opinion, the biggest wildcard is whether the network can sustain and accelerate on-chain growth. Fundamentals matter most in the long run, but short-term price action often hinges on sentiment and liquidity flows. Balancing these factors will determine whether HBAR delivers a sustained breakout or falls back into consolidation.
What the Road Ahead Might Look Like
If the current setup plays out favorably, $0.12 seems like a realistic near-term objective, aligning with key Fibonacci levels and previous swing highs. A decisive move above that could open the door to higher targets, especially if market conditions remain supportive.
Longer term, Hedera’s focus on scalability, low fees, and enterprise partnerships gives it a solid foundation for growth. Whether it captures significant market share in payments, tokenization, or other verticals remains to be seen, but the infrastructure is in place.
Ultimately, crypto rewards patience and conviction. Hedera has quietly built an impressive foundation, and now the pieces appear to be aligning for a potential breakout. Whether it materializes depends on continued execution, market tailwinds, and the ability to convert network activity into sustained price appreciation.
Whatever happens next, one thing feels clear: HBAR is worth watching closely in the coming weeks. The combination of technical strength, rising on-chain metrics, and positive derivatives positioning creates a compelling case for upside. As always in crypto, stay nimble, manage risk, and let the market show its hand.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.
