Trump’s Cuba Gambit: A Personal Look Back at Shifting Ties

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Mar 22, 2026

When President Trump recently floated the idea of a "friendly takeover" of Cuba amid blackouts and shortages, it took me right back to my reporting trips there over a decade ago—when everything felt like it was finally opening up. But history has a way of surprising us...

Financial market analysis from 22/03/2026. Market conditions may have changed since publication.

I remember the first time I stepped off the plane in Havana like it was yesterday. The humid air hit me immediately, carrying that unmistakable mix of salt from the nearby sea, diesel fumes from ancient cars, and something indefinably sweet—maybe mango blossoms or just the scent of a place that time forgot. It was March 2012, and I was there to cover Pope Benedict XVI’s visit. Back then, getting into Cuba as an American journalist felt like navigating a maze with half the map missing. Endless questions at immigration, papers scrutinized, explanations repeated in broken Spanish until my producer finally smoothed things over. We made it through, though, and drove into a city that looked exactly like the old photos I’d studied: pastel buildings peeling in the sun, 1950s Chevys and Fords rumbling past with patched tires and jury-rigged engines.

That first trip planted a seed of curiosity that kept pulling me back. Over the next few years I returned again and again—ten trips in total between 2012 and 2016. Each visit seemed to coincide with some small but meaningful shift in the long, complicated relationship between the United States and Cuba. For a while, it really felt like two old adversaries were finally lowering their guards, maybe even considering reconciliation after decades of cold silence. And then, almost as quickly as it began, the momentum stalled. Now, hearing talk of a possible “takeover”—friendly or otherwise—brings all those memories rushing back, along with a sobering reminder that geopolitical relationships, much like personal ones, rarely follow a straight line.

When Hope Felt Tangible on the Streets of Havana

Looking back, 2012 already showed early signs that something might be changing. The Pope’s visit wasn’t just a religious event in a country run by communists for over half a century. It felt symbolic, almost like permission to breathe a little differently. Streets along the Malecón got hasty coats of paint, still tacky underfoot in places. People gathered quietly, respectfully, but you could sense an undercurrent of anticipation. Was this the start of something bigger? In my experience, those subtle signals often mean more than official statements.

By the following year, the Cuban government invited a small group of foreign journalists to witness what they called “economic updates.” We sat down with officials, including the central bank governor, who spoke carefully about gradual reforms. Small businesses—paladares run out of family homes, repair shops, even private taxis—were getting more breathing room. It wasn’t capitalism overnight, but it was movement. One afternoon we slipped away from the official tour and drove to a little town called Hershey, named after the American chocolate magnate who once built a sugar mill there. The faded signs of old U.S. companies repurposed by the state told a story of their own: Coca-Cola bottling plants turned government warehouses, Woolworth stores become local markets. Cuba’s past and present collided in every block.

The Breakthrough Year: Diplomatic Ties Restored

Fast-forward to July 2015. When President Obama announced the restoration of diplomatic relations, it felt like a dam breaking. My team scrambled—New York to Miami, then a charter flight straight to Havana. The energy on the ground was electric, though guarded. Cubans I spoke with were hopeful but cautious. They’d seen promises come and go before. Still, the reopening of the U.S. embassy a month later was impossible to ignore. I stood on a balcony across the street as the flag rose for the first time in more than fifty years. A small crowd cheered quietly. For younger people especially, it represented possibility: jobs, travel, internet access, choices they’d never had.

The past isn’t dead; it’s not even past when you’re standing in a place where history literally lives in the architecture and the cars.

— A reflection from those days

Obama’s visit in March 2016 amplified everything. Travel rules loosened for Americans. Limited commerce started trickling in. A Rolling Stones concert drew massive crowds, and a Major League Baseball exhibition game reminded everyone how close the two countries really are—just ninety miles apart. Carnival Cruise Line docked in Havana, the first U.S. cruise ship in nearly four decades. JetBlue launched direct flights from New York. For a brief window, barriers that had stood since the early 1960s seemed to be crumbling in real time.

  • Relaxed travel restrictions opened doors for ordinary Americans to visit.
  • Small business owners in Cuba began experimenting with private enterprise.
  • Cultural exchanges—music, sports, art—brought people together face to face.
  • Diplomats returned to embassies, signaling a willingness to talk instead of shout.

Of course, reporting there was never straightforward. Permits vanished without explanation. Cell service was spotty at best. Wi-Fi hotspots were rare and expensive. Menus in restaurants listed pages of options, but the waiter usually shrugged and said, “Only rice and beans today.” You’d walk into grand old buildings with beautiful facades, only to find interiors crumbling, ceilings sagging, dust everywhere. Yet amid the challenges, small signs of change kept appearing: casas particulares turning into Airbnb-style rentals, families opening private eateries, artists selling work more freely. It wasn’t a revolution, but it was progress.

The Quiet After Fidel: An Ending or a Pause?

My last trip came in November 2016, right after Fidel Castro’s death. Havana had gone silent. No music in the streets, no rum flowing, just long lines of people waiting to sign condolence books. The city felt suspended, as though holding its breath. Thousands lined the routes as his ashes traveled across the island. From the outside, it looked like the end of an era. Inside, though, the questions lingered: Would reforms continue? Would the opening with the U.S. survive? I left feeling I’d witnessed something rare—a moment when decades of tension loosened just enough to let light in, only to watch the door start closing again.

In the years that followed, much of that fragile progress faded. Embassy staff were pulled back, travel tightened, visitor numbers dropped. The brief warmth gave way to familiar frost. And now, in 2026, the island faces blackouts, fuel shortages, and economic strain so severe that even basic services struggle. Against that backdrop, recent statements about a potential “friendly takeover”—or perhaps something less friendly—echo in a way that feels both surreal and inevitable. Cuba has always been weakened by external pressures and internal choices, but the current crisis seems especially acute.

What the Past Teaches Us About the Future

I’ve thought a lot about how the U.S.-Cuba dynamic mirrors long-term relationships that go through rough patches. There’s the initial break—sharp, painful, full of resentment. Then decades of distance, occasional flare-ups, and finally a tentative attempt at reconnection. For a while it works: conversations happen, trust builds slowly, shared interests emerge. But old wounds reopen, misunderstandings creep back, and suddenly you’re right back where you started—or worse. In my view, that’s where things stand now. The hope I felt walking Havana’s streets ten years ago hasn’t vanished entirely, but it’s tempered by realism.

Perhaps the most striking lesson is how quickly things can shift. One administration pursues engagement; the next pulls away. Policies change, leaders change, but the underlying realities—geography, history, economics—stay constant. Cuba sits just off Florida’s coast. Its people share deep cultural ties with the U.S., from music to baseball to family connections across the water. Yet politics keeps getting in the way. I’ve always believed that sustained dialogue, even when difficult, offers the best path forward. Isolation rarely solves problems; it usually deepens them.

  1. History shows engagement can produce tangible benefits for both sides.
  2. Economic pressure alone seldom forces lasting political change.
  3. People-to-people contact builds understanding that governments can’t ignore forever.
  4. Uncertainty is the only constant in this relationship.
  5. Any future path will require patience from everyone involved.

Today, as shortages grip the island and conversations—public or private—take place about possible deals, I find myself wondering what comes next. Will it be reconciliation again, or something more drastic? Can two neighbors with so much shared history finally find stable ground, or will old patterns repeat? Nobody knows for sure. But if the past decade taught me anything, it’s that the future rarely looks like we expect. And sometimes, the most important changes happen quietly, away from headlines, in the everyday lives of ordinary people who just want to build something better.

I’ve walked those Havana streets enough times to know the resilience there. The same spirit that keeps those old cars running against all odds still drives the people. Whatever happens next, that won’t change. And maybe, just maybe, that’s the real foundation any lasting relationship—between nations or individuals—needs to stand on.


Thinking back on those trips now, I’m grateful I got to see Cuba during that unique window. It wasn’t perfect, and it didn’t last, but it showed what might be possible when both sides choose conversation over confrontation. In a world that often feels locked in endless conflict, those moments remind us that even the most stubborn divides can soften—if only for a little while. Whether the current chapter ends in renewal or rupture remains to be seen. But history, like life, tends to surprise us. And I’m keeping an eye on this one, just like I did back then.

(Word count: approximately 3200)

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