Airbus Sets 870 Delivery Target for 2026 Amid Rising Boeing Pressure
It’s no secret that the commercial aviation sector has been recovering strongly from pandemic disruptions, with airlines scrambling to expand fleets and replace aging aircraft. Yet the real story isn’t just about numbers climbing—it’s about who is delivering those planes and how the balance of power might be shifting. Airbus recently outlined its plan for around 870 commercial aircraft deliveries this year, a figure that came in a touch below what many industry watchers had penciled in. This comes at a time when Boeing appears to be regaining ground after several tough years.
In my view, this isn’t merely a numbers game; it reflects deeper currents in supply chains, production stability, and customer confidence. When one manufacturer has enjoyed a relatively smoother run while the other navigated serious challenges, any sign of reversal grabs attention. And right now, those signs are hard to ignore.
Looking Back at Recent Performance
Last year wrapped up with Airbus handing over 793 aircraft, edging past its adjusted target of roughly 790. That might sound like a solid win—and in many ways it was—but it followed a late downgrade from an initial goal of around 820. The culprit? Supplier-related quality concerns, particularly around fuselage panels for the popular A320 family jets. These weren’t catastrophic, but they did create enough friction to slow momentum at a critical time.
Meanwhile, Boeing’s recovery story has been one of the more compelling narratives in aerospace lately. After facing prolonged headwinds—including well-documented issues with its narrowbody program—the American manufacturer has been methodically rebuilding trust and output. By the end of last year, the gap in deliveries favored Airbus, but the trend lines started tilting differently when looking at fresh orders.
Deliveries remain the ultimate scorecard in this business because that’s when manufacturers pocket the majority of the payment.
Industry observer
That’s a key point worth repeating. While order books get all the headlines for their long-term implications, it’s the actual handovers that drive revenue recognition and signal operational health. So when Boeing started pulling ahead in monthly metrics early this year, it sent ripples through the analyst community.
The Early 2026 Snapshot: Boeing Takes an Unexpected Lead
January is rarely a blockbuster month for deliveries—everyone knows production often ramps slowly after the year-end push—but the contrast this time was striking. One side managed just 19 aircraft handed over, while the other cleared 46. That’s more than double, and it wasn’t a one-off anomaly. Order activity told a similar story, with the U.S. player booking over 100 net new commitments against fewer than 50 for its European counterpart.
Of course, skeptics quickly pointed out that early-year figures can mislead. Airbus deliveries have historically been back-loaded, meaning the bulk of the year’s output arrives later. Still, the softness in that opening month raised eyebrows, especially given the expectations for a stronger overall ramp.
- Airbus: 19 deliveries in January, below prior-year levels
- Boeing: 46 deliveries, showing meaningful acceleration
- Orders: Boeing captured more net commitments in the opening period
- Context: January typically slow, but the disparity stood out
Perhaps the most intriguing aspect here is how sentiment has flipped so quickly. Not long ago, many viewed the European manufacturer as nearly untouchable in the narrowbody segment. Now, questions are surfacing about whether the tide could truly turn.
Why the 870 Target Matters—and Why It’s Conservative
Setting a public target of around 870 for this year signals confidence in overcoming recent hurdles, yet it sits modestly below the roughly 880 that some analysts had modeled. That gap isn’t trivial; it reflects caution around persistent supply-chain headwinds, particularly engine availability for certain models and ongoing efforts to stabilize quality processes.
Production rates for the A320 family—the workhorse that drives most volume—are expected to climb steadily toward higher monthly outputs by year’s end. But getting there requires flawless coordination across a vast network of suppliers, something that’s proven elusive lately. Engine constraints, in particular, have been called out as a limiting factor.
Still, the long-term trajectory looks intact. Industry experts describe recent disruptions as temporary execution challenges rather than structural flaws. If Airbus can navigate the near-term bottlenecks, the path to even higher volumes in future years remains open.
Boeing’s Comeback Story Gains Momentum
It’s hard not to root for a turnaround when a company has faced as many trials as Boeing has in recent times. Under new leadership, the focus has sharpened on stabilizing production, addressing quality concerns, and rebuilding airline relationships. Revenue surprises on the upside in recent quarters have helped fuel optimism.
Widebody programs, especially the Dreamliner, are showing promise as output increases. And while narrowbody challenges linger, the trajectory points toward meaningful gains. When you layer on the fact that Boeing secured more orders last year than its rival for the first time in several cycles, the picture starts to look balanced again.
I’ve always believed competition brings out the best in any industry. A resurgent Boeing pushes Airbus to sharpen its execution, and vice versa. Customers ultimately win with better products, more reliable delivery schedules, and hopefully healthier pricing dynamics.
Financial Picture and Forward Guidance
Alongside the delivery outlook, Airbus shared its expectations for profitability and cash generation. Adjusted earnings before interest and taxes are projected around a specific mid-range figure, with free cash flow before financing activities targeted similarly. These numbers suggest steady progress even as the company invests heavily in ramping production.
Revenue trends reflect the delivery profile—strong but tempered by the cautious stance on output. The order backlog for both manufacturers remains enormous, built up over years of pandemic-era supply constraints and surging travel demand. That cushion provides visibility, but it also underscores the urgency to deliver consistently.
| Metric | Airbus 2026 Target | Context |
| Commercial Deliveries | Around 870 | Slightly below some analyst views |
| Adjusted EBIT | Around €7.5 billion | Modest growth expected |
| Free Cash Flow (before customer financing) | Around €4.5 billion | Supports investment needs |
This guidance assumes no major new disruptions, which in this industry is never a guarantee. But it does paint a picture of measured optimism.
Broader Implications for Airlines and the Industry
Airlines care deeply about when their new jets arrive. Delays can scramble fleet planning, impact growth strategies, and even affect financial performance. A tighter race between the two dominant manufacturers could mean more negotiating leverage for carriers, potentially better terms, and faster innovation.
From a macro perspective, the push toward higher production rates supports global connectivity and economic activity. More efficient aircraft help reduce emissions per passenger mile, aligning with sustainability goals. Yet supply-chain fragility remains the Achilles’ heel for the entire sector.
One thing I’ve noticed over the years is how quickly perceptions can shift in this capital-intensive world. A few strong months can rebuild confidence; a string of misses can erode it just as fast. Right now, the momentum feels like it’s tilting toward a more even contest.
What to Watch Moving Forward
- Monthly delivery reports—will Airbus rebound strongly in the coming quarters?
- Order activity trends—does Boeing sustain its early edge?
- Supply-chain updates—any easing of engine or component bottlenecks?
- Airline fleet decisions—how do carriers balance their orders between the two?
- Production rate achievements—especially for narrowbody programs
These elements will shape the narrative through the rest of the year and beyond. The 870 target is a starting point, not the finish line. Execution will determine whether Airbus holds its ground or faces stiffer headwinds.
At the end of the day, this rivalry benefits everyone in aviation. A healthy competition drives progress, forces accountability, and keeps the focus on delivering safe, efficient aircraft to the world’s airlines. Whether you’re an investor, an aviation enthusiast, or simply someone who flies regularly, these developments are worth following closely.
The skies are getting busier, and the manufacturers building the planes that fill them are in an intriguing phase. Stay tuned—there’s plenty more to come.
