Remember when nobody wanted to touch airline stocks with a ten-foot pole?
Yeah, me too. The entire sector felt like a permanent value trap for years — endless fuel costs, labor issues, pandemics, you name it. But something fascinating has been happening over the past couple of months that most investors completely missed while chasing the usual tech darlings.
The airlines are quietly putting in one of the cleanest technical breakouts I’ve seen in a very long time.
Why the JETS ETF Just Caught My Full Attention
There’s something particularly satisfying about watching a beaten-down sector finally snap out of its multi-year funk. And right now, the US Global Jets ETF (JETS) is doing exactly that — with style.
I’ve been trading transports for over two decades, and these moves don’t come around often. When they do, you better pay attention because they tend to run much further than anyone expects.
Let me show you what’s happening under the hood.
The Breakout That Changes Everything
For practically four years, JETS has been stuck bouncing around in a massive base between roughly $15 and $27. That $27 level? It rejected the price like clockwork — May 2021, November 2021, August 2022, January 2023… you get the picture.
Until now.
Over the past few weeks, something shifted. Volume started picking up. The moves became more deliberate. And then — boom — price sliced through $27 like it wasn’t even there. We’re talking about a textbook breakout on expanding volume with zero real pullback so far.
This isn’t some random pop. This is what accumulation finally turning into markup looks like.
What the Big Players Are Actually Doing
Look at the major holdings and the picture gets even clearer:
- Southwest (LUV) — fresh all-time highs
- Delta (DAL) — crushing its previous highs
- United (UAL) — same story, new highs
- American (AAL) — not quite there yet but just broke nine-month highs
These aren’t isolated moves. When the four largest US carriers start trending together like this, especially coming out of a multi-year base, you have the makings of a genuine sector rotation.
And here’s what really gets me excited — the transports as a whole are confirming this strength. Both the Dow Jones Transportation Average and the broader transport ETF (IYT) are hitting 52-week highs. In market lore, when trannies lead, the rest of the market tends to follow.
The Long-Term Chart That Made Me Sit Up Straight
Pull up the monthly chart of JETS going back ten years and try not to smile.
What you’re looking at is a classic four-year base — a massive cup pattern that’s been quietly forming since the COVID crash. The $27 level that just broke? That was the rim of the cup.
In pattern recognition, when you get a multi-year cup with a clean breakout above the rim on good volume, the minimum measured move is the depth of the cup added to the breakout point.
Do the math and we’re looking at roughly $33 as the conservative target. That’s twenty percent from current levels — and honestly, probably the least this move does given how long the base has been building.
But stretch your imagination a bit further. If this really is the start of a new bull cycle for airlines (and there’s decent evidence it might be), the old highs up near $40+ from 2019 aren’t exactly crazy.
Cyclical sectors don’t ring a bell at the bottom — they just quietly build massive bases while everyone ignores them. Then one day you wake up and they’re twenty percent higher and nobody saw it coming.
How I’m Actually Trading This Setup
Full disclosure — I’m long JETS right now. Got in on the breakout above $27 and added a bit more on the first pullback that held.
Here’s my exact plan:
- Entry — Already executed on the breakout, but any pullback to $27 that holds is still a gift
- Initial target — $33 area (previous major resistance, now support on the monthly)
- Stretch target — Low $40s if we get real momentum going into 2026
- Stop loss — Below the 50-day moving average, currently rising around $25.50 and climbing
That 50-day has been golden support throughout this entire move higher. As long as price stays above it on a closing basis, the bulls remain in full control.
If we lose the 50-day and can’t quickly reclaim $27? Yeah, I’ll be out faster than you can say “turbulence.” No heroics here.
Why This Feels Different Than Previous Fakeouts
I’ve been burned by airline rallies before — we all have. So what makes this one different?
For starters, the fundamentals are actually cooperating this time around. Lower fuel prices, strong travel demand that’s holding up better than expected, and — perhaps most importantly — capacity discipline from the majors.
Remember when every airline was adding routes like crazy and killing pricing? That era seems to be over, at least for now.
Add in the fact that money is clearly rotating out of overcrowded tech trades and into forgotten sectors, and you have the recipe for something that could run longer than anyone anticipates.
The Risk/Reward Math That Makes This Compelling
Let’s keep it simple:
| Current Price | ~ $27.80 |
| Conservative Target | $33.00 |
| Potential Gain | +18.7% |
| Stop Loss Level | $25.30 |
| Potential Loss | -8.99% |
| Risk/Reward Ratio | 1:2.08 |
Even better if we get to the low $40s — that’s over 40% upside against less than 9% downside risk.
Show me many trades with that kind of math in this market and I’ll show you why I’m paying attention.
Why an ETF Makes Perfect Sense Here
Individual airline stocks can be brutal. One bad weather quarter or labor negotiation and you’re down 20% while the rest of the sector holds up.
JETS spreads that risk around beautifully. The top four holdings (Southwest, American, Delta, United) make up about 45% of the fund, with another dozen or so names filling out the rest. You get the sector move without putting all your eggs in one volatile basket.
Plus, the expense ratio is reasonable and liquidity is excellent. This is how you play sector rotation without getting married to any single management team.
What Could Still Go Wrong (Because Something Always Can)
Look, nothing moves in a straight line — especially cyclical sectors like airlines.
A sudden spike in oil prices, recession fears picking up steam, or just general market rotation out of cyclicals could put pressure on this trade. That’s why the stop below the 50-day exists.
But right now? The weight of the evidence is clearly bullish. The charts are clean, the sector is confirming, and money flow is pointing in the right direction.
Sometimes the best trades are the ones that have been staring you in the face for years while everyone else ignored them.
The airline trade might just be one of those.
Fasten your seatbelts.
