Have you ever watched the crypto market feel almost… scripted? Like some invisible director is following the same playbook from previous cycles, just with better special effects and higher stakes.
Right now, in late November 2025, we’re sitting on what looks suspiciously like the opening scene of the next big act. Bitcoin dominance is pressing hard against a diagonal resistance that has rejected it multiple times across years. Meanwhile the ETH/BTC pair is grinding along a support zone that previously marked the exact bottom before explosive moves higher. If you’ve been around long enough, this setup feels eerily familiar.
I’m not here to scream “altseason tomorrow” from the rooftops — anyone who’s traded more than one cycle knows that’s a quick way to lose money. But the alignment of these two macro indicators is impossible to ignore. Let’s break it down properly, look at what actually happened last time, and figure out whether history is genuinely setting the stage again.
The Two Indicators Everyone Should Be Watching Right Now
Forget the daily noise of meme coin pumps or exchange drama. When it comes to spotting the real shift from Bitcoin season to altcoin season, only two charts have consistently called the turn years in advance.
1. Bitcoin Dominance at Diagonal Resistance
Bitcoin dominance — the percentage of total crypto market cap belonging to BTC — is the ultimate scoreboard. When it rises, money flows into Bitcoin and everything else suffers. When it falls, capital rotates out and floods the rest of the market.
Right now we’re touching a descending trendline that connects the major peaks of 2018, 2021, and early 2022. Every single time BTC dominance kissed this line in the past, it reversed hard lower for months. The 2021 peak, for example, capped dominance around 72% before a six-month bleed that took it all the way down to 38%. Altcoins, meanwhile, went parabolic.
Today we’re back at that same line, somewhere in the high 50s. The rejection candles are starting to look ugly, and weekly RSI is showing clear bearish divergence. In plain English: the path of least resistance for dominance might finally be down again.
2. ETH/BTC Testing Cyclical Support
The second piece of the puzzle is the ETH/BTC trading pair. Think of it as the exchange rate between Bitcoin and the flagship altcoin. When ETH/BTC is falling, Ethereum is underperforming Bitcoin. When it reverses and climbs, Ethereum leads the altcoin charge.
Zoom out to the monthly chart and you’ll see we’re sitting right on top of a horizontal support zone that held perfectly in 2017 and again in late 2020/early 2021. Both times, the bounce from this level kicked off multi-year altcoin bull runs.
Interestingly, the current touch comes with ETH/BTC at roughly 0.033 — almost identical to the 0.032 area that marked the bottom in 2021. The pattern is so clean it almost feels unfair.
When Both Signals Flash Green Together
Here’s where it gets spicy. The real magic doesn’t happen when just one of these indicators flips. It happens when both align at the same time.
- Bitcoin dominance rolling over from multi-year resistance
- ETH/BTC putting in a higher low or reversal candle at historic support
That exact combination has preceded every major altcoin season on record. 2017. 2021. And now, arguably, late 2025.
“The setup never missed.”
— A sentiment echoed by multiple veteran chartists this week
What Actually Happened in Previous Cycles
Let’s take a quick walk down memory lane — but with numbers instead of nostalgia.
In early 2017, Bitcoin dominance peaked around 95% (yes, really) before collapsing to 35% over the following year. The average top-50 altcoin gained more than 10,000% against the dollar during that period. Ethereum itself went from $10 to $1,400.
Fast-forward to 2021. Dominance rejected the same diagonal line near 72%, dropped to 38%, and we got the DeFi summer, NFT mania, and meme coin insanity all rolled into one glorious chaotic run.
Even smaller rotations matter. The mini altseason in Q1 2024 saw dominance fall from 55% to 48% and still delivered 3-10x gains across layer-1s and layer-2s.
The pattern is clear: when Bitcoin’s share of the pie stops growing, the pie itself starts growing faster — and the crumbs falling to altcoins become feasts.
Why This Time Feels Different (But Probably Isn’t)
I keep hearing the same objections every cycle.
- “Institutions only want Bitcoin and Ethereum now.”
- “Regulatory risk is too high for small caps.”
- “Liquidity is worse than ever.”
Every single one of those arguments was made in 2020-2021 too. And they all got steamrolled by price action once capital started rotating.
Yes, the market is more mature. Yes, the easy 100x moonshots are rarer. But human psychology hasn’t changed. Greed still follows fear. FOMO is still undefeated. And when Bitcoin stops making new highs while money keeps pouring into the sector, that cash has to go somewhere.
Perhaps the most interesting aspect this cycle? We’re seeing the setup form while Bitcoin is still below its all-time high from March 2025. In previous cycles the rotation usually started after Bitcoin had already put in a local top. If dominance cracks while BTC is still grinding sideways or higher, the fuel for an altcoin run could be absolutely massive.
The Counter-Arguments (Because Balance Matters)
Look, I’ve been wrong before — spectacularly wrong. So let’s talk about why this setup could fail.
- Macro headwinds: Rising real yields or a dollar squeeze could crush risk assets across the board.
- ETF flows: Spot Bitcoin ETFs keep sucking up billions. If that continues unabated, dominance might hold or even climb.
- ETH underperformance: If Ethereum can’t decouple due to high gas fees or competition from faster chains, the ETH/BTC bounce might fizzle.
- Time: These setups can take weeks or months to confirm. Patience is required.
None of these would surprise me. Markets love to fake out the majority before the real move.
What I’m Personally Watching Next
Charts are great, but confirmation is better. Here are the specific levels and behaviors that would make me sit up and pay serious attention:
- Weekly close of BTC dominance below the diagonal trendline (currently ~58%)
- ETH/BTC reclaiming the 0.04 level with conviction
- Total crypto market cap (excluding BTC) breaking its 2025 downtrend
- Altcoin/BTC pairs (SOL/BTC, BNB/BTC, etc.) putting in higher lows
- Increasing volume in mid-cap and small-cap altcoins
If four out of five of those happen in the next 6-8 weeks? I’ll be rotating heavier into alts than I have in years.
Final Thoughts — Hope Is Not a Strategy, But Neither Is Blind Skepticism
We’re in that weird limbo phase where everything feels expensive yet nothing has truly gone parabolic except Bitcoin itself. Sentiment is mixed, charts are giving conflicting signals on short timeframes, and most people are exhausted from the chop.
That, ironically, is exactly when the biggest moves tend to start.
The 2025 altcoin season might not look exactly like 2017 or 2021 — it rarely does. But the underlying mechanics of capital rotation haven’t changed. When Bitcoin’s grip on the market loosens even slightly, the results can be breathtaking.
So keep an eye on dominance. Watch ETH/BTC like a hawk. And maybe, just maybe, start doing your research on projects you wrote off months ago.
Because if history is any guide, the next few months could separate those who were paying attention from everyone else catching up at the top.
Disclosure: The author holds Bitcoin, Ethereum, and various altcoins at the time of writing. This is not financial advice — always do your own research.
