Have you ever watched a tech giant drop earnings that not only beat the street but send its stock buzzing in premarket trading? That’s exactly what happened recently when Apple unveiled its fiscal fourth-quarter results, and let me tell you, the iPhone 17 was the star of the show. Shares jumped nearly 2% before the bell, and it’s easy to see why—demand for the new flagship has been nothing short of explosive since its September launch.
In my view, these moments remind us how one product cycle can reignite investor enthusiasm in a company that’s been around the block. The CEO even shared some bold predictions in an interview, talking about revenue climbing at least 10% and the upcoming quarter potentially being the best ever. It’s the kind of news that gets analysts scrambling to update their models overnight.
Wall Street’s Enthusiastic Response
Right out of the gate, several big-name firms on Wall Street raised their price targets, signaling confidence in Apple’s trajectory. This wasn’t just a minor tweak here and there; we’re talking significant hikes that point to double-digit upside potential from current levels. Perhaps the most interesting aspect is how the iPhone 17’s success is spilling over into expectations for services and future innovations.
Let’s break it down a bit. The quarter’s beat came from both earnings and revenue surpassing forecasts, with the new iPhone driving the bulk of it. Supply constraints actually held back some sales, meaning the true demand might be even stronger than the numbers suggest. Add in guidance for double-digit iPhone growth in the December quarter, and you’ve got a recipe for continued momentum.
Evercore ISI Stays Bullish with a $300 Target
One firm keeping its outperform rating intact bumped its price objective to $300 from $290. That implies about 11% upside, and honestly, it feels conservative given the chatter. They highlighted Apple’s ability to maintain mid to high single-digit sales growth alongside low double-digit earnings expansion.
Net/net: Sticking with our OP rating and raising our target to $300, as we think AAPL remains well positioned to sustain mid/high single digit sales and low double digit EPS growth.
I’ve found that when analysts stick to their guns like this after a beat, it often signals deeper conviction. The focus here is on sustainable growth, not just a one-quarter wonder. With the installed base expanding, services should keep chugging along nicely too.
Think about it: mid-single digit sales might not sound thrilling, but paired with earnings growth in the low teens, it compounds nicely over time. It’s like building a solid portfolio—one steady step after another.
JPMorgan Sees $305 Potential
Over at another heavyweight, they lifted their target to $305 from $290, calling for around 12% gains ahead. They’re overweight on the stock, and the reasoning centers on the product cycle’s staying power. Expectations now include the iPhone 18 carrying the torch, plus gross margin improvements despite higher ops costs.
We are raising our revenue growth forecasts materially on the momentum of the product cycle, which we expect to sustain with the iPhone 18 series as well, and our earnings estimates rise too, powered by gross margin upsides, partly offset by higher operating expenses. Reiterate Overweight rating with a favorable multi-year product cycle and robust Services growth through an expanding installed base.
This multi-year view is what catches my eye. It’s not just about the current quarter; it’s a longer game. Services growth, fueled by more devices in users’ hands, acts like a recurring revenue machine. And with margins holding up better than anticipated, there’s room for pleasant surprises.
- Material revenue forecast increases
- Sustained product cycle into next model
- Gross margin tailwinds
- Expanding services from installed base
Varied sentence lengths aside, the key takeaway is optimism tempered with realism about expenses. AI investments are ramping up, but the cycle’s strength should more than cover it.
Morgan Stanley’s Overweight Stance at $305
Raising from $298 to $305, this group emphasizes accelerating iPhone growth and services outperformance. Gross margins are defending better than expected, even as R&D swells by 27% next fiscal year due to AI pushes. Their thesis remains unchanged—momentum keeps estimates trending up.
iPhone growth is accelerating, Services is outperforming, and AAPL is protecting GMs better than we expected. However, AI spending is driving R & D materially (+27%) higher in FY26. All-in, our OW thesis doesn’t change post-earnings as iPhone momentum keeps est revisions biased upwards.
AI spending is the elephant in the room, isn’t it? It’s costly now, but positions the company for future wins. In my experience, tech leaders who invest heavily during peaks often dominate later. Here, iPhone acceleration provides the cash flow to fund it without derailing profitability.
Services outperforming is huge—it’s the high-margin glue holding everything together. With iPhone units flying off shelves, that segment should accelerate further.
Citi’s Aggressive $315 Call
Jumping from $245 to $315, this represents about 16% upside and stands out for its boldness. Guidance for the December quarter—10-12% revenue growth and implied EPS around $2.65—topped street estimates of 6% and $2.54. Greater China sales turning positive and services up 14% ease worries.
Dec-Q sales guide of +10-12% y/y and implied EPS of $2.65 are above Street +6%/$2.54. Greater China sales are expected to be up y/y in the Dec-Q and services +14% providing a relief to investors’ concerns on both. GM guide of 47.5% or +30bps assumes $1.4B tariff, reduction in China tariff to 10% from 20%, and no impact from rising commodity (memory) prices. We adjust our FY26/27 EPS +48c/+62c on stronger iPhone demand and lift TP to $315 or 33x P/E vs prior 28x to reflect continued services growth momentum on revised CY27 EPS. Fundamentally, we see 2026 as a better product cycle year for Apple with a trio of product launches (Advanced Siri, Foldable Phone, Vision Pro 2).
Gross margin guidance at 47.5% factors in tariffs and commodity pressures but still shows expansion. Lower China tariffs help, and no memory price hit yet is a bonus. Looking to 2026, a trifecta of launches could make it a banner year.
Advanced Siri, a foldable phone, Vision Pro 2—sounds like science fiction becoming reality. If executed well, these could drive another upgrade supercycle. The P/E expansion to 33x reflects that potential.
| Key Guidance Metric | Company Forecast | Street Estimate |
| December Revenue Growth | 10-12% y/y | 6% y/y |
| Implied EPS | $2.65 | $2.54 |
| Services Growth | N/A | |
| Gross Margin | 47.5% | N/A |
This table really drives home how much the guidance exceeded expectations. Relief on China and services is palpable after recent concerns.
Goldman Sachs Pushes to $320
From $279 to $320, implying 18% upside—their buy rating shines through. Strong iPhone demand persists into fiscal 2026, with services accelerating. The quarter’s EPS beat came from services offsetting an iPhone miss due to supply, but underlying demand was robust as channel inventories dropped.
Strong underlying iPhone demand continuing into F2026, Services growth accelerating. AAPL’s F4Q25 EPS beat as a beat in Services more than offset a miss in iPhone; however, iPhone demand was very strong with the iPhone revenue miss in the quarter driven by supply constraints with channel inventories down qoq. The strong underlying demand was supported by a better-than-expected F1Q26E revenue growth guidance of 10-12% yoy including DD% yoy iPhone revenue growth and ~14% yoy Services revenue growth.
Supply constraints pushing sales forward actually bolsters the December outlook. Double-digit iPhone growth there is aggressive but backed by checks on build rates and promotions. Services at 14% is the cherry on top.
Channel inventory drawdown is a telltale sign of demand outstripping supply. It’s frustrating short-term but bullish long-term.
Bank of America Eyes $325
The most optimistic yet, targeting $325 for 20% upside. Bullish into 2026 on better-than-expected upgrades, rising gross margins despite headwinds, and improving mix toward services in March. AI-enabled Siri in 2026 and foldable iPhone in September add optionality.
We remain bullish on shares of Apple heading into 2026 given (1) iPhone upgrades are tracking better than expected, (2) gross margins continue to move higher despite commodity headwinds, (3) March qtr should see even better GMs as tariffs abate further and mix shifts to Services, (4) AI enabled Siri will be available in 2026 and (5) A foldable iPhone is expected in Sep 2026. In our Oct 29 note, we laid out our 5-Year expectations for Apple’s rev/earnings power where EPS could grow in the mid-teens through 2030. Reiterate Buy on strong capital returns, eventual winner on AI at the edge and optionality from new products/markets.
Mid-teens EPS growth through 2030? That’s the kind of long-term vision investors dream about. Capital returns remain strong, and edge AI leadership could be a game-changer. New products open doors to untapped markets.
- Better upgrade rates
- Higher gross margins
- Tariff relief in March
- AI Siri launch
- Foldable iPhone
This numbered list outlines the pillars of their bull case. Each point builds on the last, creating a compelling narrative for sustained outperformance.
UBS Plays It Cautious at $280
Not everyone is all-in. Maintaining a neutral rating but raising to $280 from $220 implies just 3% upside. The quarter was solid with 6% iPhone growth to $49 billion, though below some estimates due to constraints. Demand checks suggest sales pushed to December, supporting double-digit iPhone and 14% services growth there.
Apple reported a solid qtr led by 6% iPhone rev growth or $49.0B, slightly below our $50.3B est. However, rev was held back as supply constraints impacted iPhone in the qtr. Given a series of intra-quarter checks around build rates and promotional activity that suggested strong demand, constraints appear have pushed some sale into the Dec qtr with the company expecting iPhone rev to be up ‘double-digits’ with constraints spilling into the Dec qtr as well. Solid demand for iPhone along with expected ~14% ‘Services’ growth in Dec, drives total company expected rev growth of 10%-12% in Dec.
It’s refreshing to see a contrarian voice amid the hype. Constraints spilling over means December could overdeliver, but they’re not betting big yet. Neutral makes sense if you think valuations are stretched.
Pulling it all together, the consensus leans heavily bullish. Average price target from these updates sits well above current trading levels, with most seeing 2026 as a pivotal year. iPhone 17 kicked things off, but AI, foldables, and services will carry the baton.
What about risks? Tariffs, commodities, geopolitical tensions in China— they’re baked in but could flare up. Supply chain resilience has improved, yet constraints persist. Competition in AI is fierce, but Apple’s ecosystem gives an edge.
In my opinion, the services moat is underrated. With billions of active devices, recurring revenue grows almost on autopilot. Pair that with prudent capital allocation—buybacks, dividends—and you have a shareholder-friendly machine.
Looking ahead, the December quarter guidance sets a high bar, but early indicators like promotional activity and build rates are encouraging. If China rebounds as expected, it silences doubters. Gross margins expanding amid headwinds shows operational excellence.
Investors often ask: is this the start of another supercycle? History says yes when new form factors and features align. Foldable, advanced AI, refreshed Vision—2026 lines up nicely. But markets are forward-looking; much is priced in.
Still, with earnings revisions biased upward and analysts mostly aligned, dipping on weakness could pay off. I’ve seen similar setups play out profitably before. The key is patience—tech cycles ebb and flow, but leaders endure.
To wrap up, Apple’s latest report underscores its resilience and innovation pipeline. The iPhone 17 lit the fuse, but the explosion is just beginning. Whether you’re a long-term holder or tactical trader, this is one to watch closely.
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