I was standing in the checkout line the day after Thanksgiving when it hit me—again—how absurd the whole “death of the American consumer” narrative really is.
The woman in front of me had a cart so full the cashier needed a second scanner. Designer coats, cookware that probably costs more than my first car, toys stacked like Jenga. Meanwhile, the guy behind me was buying one single pack of store-brand paper towels and counting out exact change. Same store, same hour, two completely different economic realities playing out side by side.
That’s the thing nobody in the financial media wants to admit: there is no single “consumer.” There never really was, but in 2025 the gap feels wider than ever.
Why the Holiday Season Could Surprise Everyone
Every year around this time we get the same doom loop. Headlines scream about shrinking disposable income, credit-card delinquencies, and the dreaded “trade-down effect.” Analysts predict the weakest holiday season since the financial crisis. And then… something funny usually happens. Certain retailers absolutely crush it while others blame the weather, supply chains, or aliens.
The difference almost always comes down to who truly understands that the American shopper isn’t a monolith. Some households are flush with stock-market gains and fat savings yields. Others are making hard choices between groceries and heat. The winners figure out how to serve both—and everyone in between—without pretending the macro picture is the same for all 330 million of us.
TJX Companies: The Silent Killer of Retail Excuses
Let’s start with the name that keeps humiliating every other big-box CEO on earnings day: TJX Companies. You know them as TJ Maxx, Marshalls, and HomeGoods. Five thousand stores worldwide, most of them within spitting distance of a Target or a Walmart.
While other retailers spend conference calls whining about “consumer headwinds,” TJX just prints money. Quietly. Consistently. Almost rudely.
Think about the last quarter numbers. Comparable-store sales up a clean 5%. Earnings per share guidance raised again. The stock? New all-time highs while the rest of the consumer-discretionary sector has basically been asleep since January.
“We don’t set prices from some ivory tower in Framingham. Our buyers live in the markets. They see what’s moving and price accordingly—always chasing value, never chasing margin dollars for the sake of it.”
— Paraphrased from decades of TJX earnings calls
That decentralized, almost chaotic approach sounds messy on paper. In practice it’s a superpower. When inflation spikes, TJX marks stuff down faster than anyone and watches traffic explode. When the economy feels shaky, treasure-hunt shoppers flock to the stores knowing they’ll find Calvin Klein at 60% off. Win-win.
Look at the earnings progression the past few years—it’s almost boring in its reliability:
- Fiscal 2023 → $2.97 per share
- Fiscal 2024 → $3.86 (up almost 30%)
- Fiscal 2025 → $4.26 (another 10% jump)
- Fiscal 2026 guidance → $4.63–$4.66 (9% growth at the midpoint)
That’s not a flash in the pan. That’s a compounding machine disguised as a discount store.
Ulta Beauty: From Post-Pandemic Hangover to Breakout Candidate
If TJX is the quiet assassin, Ulta Beauty is the comeback kid everyone wrote off too soon.
Remember 2022–2023? Same-store sales went negative, the stock got cut in half, and the narrative was that Gen Z had permanently switched to Sephora or straight to brand websites. Turns out beauty spending didn’t disappear—it just got more selective.
Ulta’s response wasn’t panic price cuts. It was a laser focus on the things that actually move the needle in prestige beauty: loyalty, experiences, and exclusive partnerships nobody else can copy.
Fast-forward to today. The Ultamate Rewards program now has nearly 46 million members—95% of total sales. That’s not a loyalty program; that’s a walled garden with a moat the size of Lake Michigan.
- Beyoncé Cowboy Carter tour partnership? Check.
- Exclusive drops at Coachella and Lollapalooza? Check.
- Super Bowl campaign that broke social engagement records? Check.
- In-store events back above 30,000 per quarter? Check.
All of that noise is translating straight to the register. Second-quarter comparable sales jumped 6.7%. Traffic, basket size, conversion—everything moving in the right direction again. More importantly, Ulta is taking share in a category that was supposedly saturated.
And the stock chart? Classic triple-top setup around $570 that I’ve been watching for months. In my experience, triple tops almost always resolve higher. The third test exhausts the last stubborn seller, and the breakout tends to be violent when it finally comes.
How to Think About Risk Heading Into Year-End
Nothing moves in a straight line—especially retail stocks in November and December. Weather, tariffs, consumer sentiment swings, you name it. So here’s the simple risk framework I’m using right now.
For TJX:
- Short-term traders: anything under $140 on a closing basis and you step aside. That would negate the recent breakout.
- Longer-term holders: the August gap around $134 is the line in the sand. A weekly close below there probably means extended consolidation.
For Ulta:
- Support cluster around $500 has held twice already. That’s your stop on a weekly closing basis.
- Next meaningful upside trigger is a decisive weekly close above $570. I’d rather buy half a position now and add aggressively on that breakout.
Simple, mechanical, emotion-free. Exactly how you want to manage money when CNBC is blasting holiday foot-traffic reports 24/7.
The Bigger Picture Nobody Wants to Talk About
Here’s what keeps me up at night—in a good way.
The top 20% of households by income and wealth have never had it better. Savings rates are high, home equity is through the roof, and a huge chunk of their net worth is tied to an S&P 500 that keeps minting new highs. Those people are not clipping coupons. They’re renovating kitchens, booking vacations, and yes—splurging on $80 face serums at Ulta and random Le Creuset score at HomeGoods because it feels like a steal.
Meanwhile, the value-conscious majority is doing exactly what TJX built its entire empire on: hunting for deals without sacrificing quality. Two completely different cohorts, both spending freely in their own lanes.
Add in the fact that consumer discretionary stocks are still the worst-performing sector year-to-date—up less than 4% while bonds are up 7%—and you get the setup I love most: high-quality companies trading at reasonable valuations in a market that’s already priced in the apocalypse.
Put another way, the fear is baked in. The upside is not.
So yeah, I’ll take my chances on the retailers that have proven they can win regardless of which version of “the consumer” shows up this holiday season. History says betting against TJX and the new-and-improved Ulta is usually a quick way to run out of money—and excuses.
Disclosure: The author and clients of his firm may own positions in the securities mentioned. This is not personalized investment advice. Do your own research and consider consulting a professional advisor before making investment decisions.
