Monday mornings in crypto are rarely boring, but this one felt like someone yanked the rug out from under the entire market the second Tokyo traders grabbed their coffee.
I opened my charts around 8 PM EST Sunday night, saw Bitcoin comfortably sitting above $91,000, and thought “okay, maybe we grind to $95K this week.” Eight hours later I woke up to absolute carnage. BTC had knifed straight through $86,000, altcoins were down double digits, and the liquidation heatmap looked like a crime scene. Classic Asia open shenanigans, but brutal nonetheless.
The Overnight Bloodbath – What Actually Happened
Let me paint the picture. Bitcoin spent the weekend flirting with the $92K zone, funding rates on perpetual futures were getting stupidly high (some exchanges north of 70% annualized), and open interest had ballooned again. Everyone and their mother was long and leveraged. That’s usually when the market decides to remind us who’s boss.
Right as Hong Kong and Singapore desks came online, sell pressure hit like a freight train. We’re talking $500 million in longs liquidated in under an hour, then another $800 million as the cascade really got going. Spot CVDs (cumulative volume delta) on Binance and Bybit went vertical red. The move was so sharp that even the usually resilient ETH/BTC pair cracked lower.
When funding is that elevated and the weekend pump feels too effortless, I start looking for the exit. Markets rarely let greed go unpunished for long.
Gold Stealing the Safe-Haven Spotlight
While crypto bled, something else caught my eye: spot gold quietly broke out to a new all-time high above $2,790. That’s not coincidence.
We’re in this weird macro limbo right now. The Fed is talking tough on inflation again, Trump’s tariff threats are back in the headlines, and global liquidity conditions feel tighter than they did in October. When uncertainty spikes, capital tends to flow toward the oldest safe haven in the book. Gold doesn’t have counterparty risk, doesn’t have funding rates, and definitely doesn’t liquidate you at 3 AM.
- Bitcoin dominance dropped almost 2% in 24 hours
- XAU/BTC pair hit highest level since early 2023
- Real 10-year yields ticked higher, hurting both gold and crypto but gold recovered faster
In my experience, when gold outperforms Bitcoin during risk-off moves, it usually signals that “risk-on” money is rotating out, not just de-leveraging.
On-Chain Signals: Pain, But Not Panic Yet
Let’s look under the hood because price action alone can be misleading.
Short-term holder realized price (the average price at which coins moved in the last 155 days) currently sits around $87,200. We’re now trading below that level. Historically, when price dips under STH realized price, newer investors are underwater and capitulation often follows. But here’s the twist: exchange inflows spiked, yet the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for short-term holders only dropped to 0.97 not exactly the washout levels we saw in previous major corrections.
Translation: yes, there’s pain, but we haven’t seen the kind of desperate selling that marks a true bottom.
- Long-term holders (coins dormant >1 year) barely moved any coins
- Retail wallets under 0.1 BTC actually increased accumulation during the dip
- Stablecoin balances on exchanges jumped $2.1 billion in 24 hours → dry powder waiting
That last point is huge. When stablecoin reserves rise during a crash, it usually means sidelined capital is ready to buy the dip rather than permanent exit.
The Leverage Flush Everyone Saw Coming
I’ve been vocal about this for weeks: the perpetual futures market was begging for a reset. Aggregate funding rates across major exchanges had been positive for 47 straight days. Open interest hit all-time highs in dollar terms. That only ends one way.
The beautiful (or terrifying) thing about crypto leverage is how efficient the liquidations are. One big wick, a cascade of stop-losses, and suddenly half the longs are gone. We just watched $1.8 billion in positions evaporate in hours. That’s actually healthy in the long run, even if it feels awful right now.
| Asset | 24h Change | Liquidations ($M) |
| Bitcoin | -5.2% | 720 |
| Ethereum | -5.8% | 410 |
| Solana | -7.3% | 180 |
| Memecoins avg | -12% | 320 |
Memecoins got absolutely obliterated, which tells you exactly where the dumb money was hiding.
December Seasonality and Thin Liquidity
If you’ve been in crypto a few cycles, you know December can be weird. Trading desks thin out ahead of holidays, liquidity dries up, and sudden moves get exaggerated. We’re entering that window now.
Add in a packed macro calendar this week (ISM manufacturing, JOLTS, ADP, Non-Farm Payrolls, Powell speaking twice), and you’ve got the perfect recipe for continued volatility. One hot inflation print or hawkish Fed comment could send risk assets lower across the board.
So… Buy the Dip or Wait?
Here the part where I usually get yelled at no matter what I say.
Personally? I took some spot positions in the low $86K region, but I’m keeping 60% in stablecoins because I’ve been wrecked before thinking “this is definitely the bottom.” The honest truth is we could easily see $82K or lower if macro turns uglier, but we could also rip straight back to $90K if this was just a leverage flush and dip buyers step in hard.
What I’m watching:
- Whether funding rates reset to neutral/negative (healthy)
- Stablecoin inflows continuing or reversing
- Bitcoin reclaiming the $88–89K zone with volume
- Gold pulling back vs continuing its tear higher
Until a couple of those boxes are checked, I’m staying nimble.
The market can remain over-leveraged longer than you can remain solvent. But it can’t stay over-leveraged forever.
Ancient crypto proverb
We’re still up 90%+ year-to-date. A 20% pullback from all-time highs is normal, even healthy. Doesn’t make it feel any better when your portfolio is bleeding red at 4 AM, but perspective matters.
Stay safe out there. Manage your leverage (or better yet, don’t use any), and remember: the market will still be here next week. Your capital might not be if you YOLO at the wrong time.
See you on the other side of this mess either way, it’s crypto. Buckle up.
