Have you ever watched a market that looks completely dead on the surface, yet feels like a coiled spring underneath? That’s exactly where Bitcoin sits right now in December 2025.
Price is stuck in a tight range around $92,000–$94,000, daily trading volumes have dropped to levels we haven’t seen since the boring summer of 2023, and most retail traders are yawning or panic-selling tiny dips. But if you zoom out and actually look at the plumbing of the market, something fascinating is happening: the underlying structure of Bitcoin has never been stronger.
The Quiet Bull Case Nobody Is Talking About
In my years covering crypto, I’ve learned one thing—when everyone is bored and volume dries up, that’s usually when the smart money does its best work. And right now, all the signals point to exactly that scenario playing out.
Long-Term Holders Are Rock Solid
Let’s start with the people who have the strongest hands in the entire ecosystem: long-term holders (LTHs). These are addresses that have held their coins for at least 155 days—often years.
Despite the recent correction from the all-time high near $108,000, LTH supply has barely budged. In fact, it’s still climbing slowly. That tells us something powerful: the investors who survived 2018, 2020, and 2022 are not blinking at a 15-20% drawdown. If anything, many of them are using the dip to stack more.
“The conviction of long-term holders right now is off the charts. We’re seeing the exact opposite behavior of previous cycle tops.”
— On-chain analyst shared privately with me last week
Exchange Supply Is Evaporating
Here’s a metric I watch religiously: Bitcoin balance on exchanges. Every time this number drops meaningfully, price tends to follow higher a few months later.
Since October, more than 150,000 BTC have left exchanges for cold storage. That’s roughly $14 billion at current prices. When coins move off exchanges in size, it almost always means holders are positioning for a multi-year horizon, not quick trades.
Lower exchange reserves are now at 2018 levels (adjusted for lost coins and ETFs). Think about that for a second. We have way more institutional participants than 2018, yet the available floating supply is the same or lower. That’s structural scarcity in action.
- Spot exchanges down ~5% in BTC reserves since summer
- ETFs continue to absorb 2,000–4,000 BTC per week on average
- Over-the-counter desks report constant outflow to custody solutions
The Nasdaq Divergence Everyone Should Watch
Perhaps the most intriguing chart right now isn’t the BTC price chart—it’s BTC versus the Nasdaq 100.
Since the November peak, the Nasdaq has fully recovered and is making new all-time highs almost daily. Tech stocks are screaming “risk-on.” Meanwhile, Bitcoin is still 15% below its high and moving sideways. That divergence has only happened a handful of times in the past, and each time Bitcoin eventually played aggressive catch-up.
Why does this matter? Because for the past two years, Bitcoin has traded like a high-beta tech stock. When growth assets rally, BTC usually rallies harder. The fact that it isn’t right now smells like temporary mispricing rather than a broken correlation.
“Bitcoin is lagging the exact asset class it’s most correlated with. That’s not bearish—it’s a screaming opportunity.”
— Macro trader Michaël van de Poppe, December 9, 2025
Institutions Front-Ran the Fed Report
One of the wildest on-chain stories of the past week happened literally hours before the latest U.S. jobs report.
Multiple clusters—identified as major exchanges, market makers, and one unknown whale—scooped up tens of thousands of BTC in a very narrow time window. The timing was impeccable: right before data that ultimately came in softer than expected, sending rate-cut odds higher.
That’s not retail traders chase momentum. Institutions were positioning in advance. The difference in behavior has rarely been this stark.
What Low Volume Actually Means Right Now
A lot of people see low volume and immediately think “lack of interest” or “distribution phase.” Sometimes that’s true. But context matters.
When volume drops while price holds a range and supply metrics improve, it usually signals absorption. The big players have already positioned, and there’s no one left to sell to them at these levels. The path of least resistance becomes higher when fresh capital eventually rotates back in.
We saw the exact pattern in Q4 2020. Volume collapsed after the summer rally, everyone called for a deeper correction, and then Bitcoin ran from $20K to $60K in four months.
Is the Four-Year Cycle Thesis Dead?
One narrative taking a beating lately is the idea that Bitcoin must follow a rigid four-year halving cycle with a blow-off top exactly 18 months after each halving.
According to that script, we should already be in parabolic euphoria. Instead, we’re consolidating. Some analysts are now arguing the script broke because of ETF adoption and macro overlap. Personally, I think the cycle is simply maturing. The shape is changing, but the underlying supply dynamics from halvings remain intact.
Either way, rigid cycle predictions feel less useful than ever. Watching actual on-chain behavior and risk appetite in broader markets tells us far more.
What Could Change the Picture?
Of course, nothing is guaranteed. A few scenarios could delay or derail the bullish setup:
- Unexpectedly hawkish Fed in 2026 (low probability at the moment)
- Major liquidation cascade in altcoins dragging BTC down with it
- Geopolitical shock that triggers global risk-off
But barring those, the balance of probabilities leans heavily toward higher prices in Q1 2026. The market has already absorbed massive selling pressure from short-term holders and miners post-halving, and the remaining supply is in stronger hands than ever.
Final Thoughts – Patience Is Being Rewarded
I’ll be honest—writing about sideways price action isn’t the sexiest topic. But these are exactly the periods that separate casual participants from people who actually compound wealth in this space.
Bitcoin isn’t screaming higher right now, but almost every fundamental and on-chain indicator is flashing green for the medium term. The boredom is the feature, not the bug.
If you’ve been waiting for confirmation that the bull market isn’t over, this is it. The structure is strengthening while most people look the other way. When volume eventually returns—and it always does—the move could be explosive.
Until then, maybe take a page from the long-term holders: zoom out, stack quietly, and let the market do its thing.
