Remember that moment when something feels almost too good to be true? That’s exactly where Bitcoin stands right now.
This morning, December 3rd, BTC spiked to $93,900 in a matter of minutes. For a brief, glorious second, six figures felt within touching distance. Then, just as quickly, sellers stepped in and price settled back around $92,600. Classic crypto – giving you hope and heartbreak in the same candle.
But here’s the thing: that little tease wasn’t random. The entire move screams anticipation. Everyone knows the real catalyst isn’t some whale on Binance – it’s the Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for December 9-10. One week from now, Jerome Powell and company will decide whether to cut rates by 25 basis points (currently priced at roughly 87% probability) or hold steady.
And in crypto, liquidity is oxygen. A rate cut would be like throwing open the windows in a smoky room.
Why This Particular FOMC Meeting Actually Matters
Let’s be honest – most FOMC meetings are snooze-fests for anyone outside fixed-income trading desks. But December 2025 feels different, and there are three concrete reasons why.
1. Bitcoin Is No Longer Trading in Isolation
Gone are the days when BTC moved purely on crypto-native narratives. The correlation with Nasdaq and risk assets generally has been painfully obvious throughout 2025. When the Fed prints or hints at printing, high-beta assets like Bitcoin tend to fly first and fastest.
I’ve watched this pattern repeat so many times it’s almost boring: dovish surprise → lower real yields → weaker dollar → capital flooding into “growth” assets → Bitcoin rips faces off. The November 2024 rate cut cycle gave us the entire move from $69k to $108k last time around. History doesn’t repeat, but it definitely rhymes.
2. Institutional Money Is Already Positioned
The ETF inflows tell the story better than any chartist ever could. November closed with another $220 million pouring into spot Bitcoin ETFs on the last trading day alone. That’s not retail FOMO – that’s institutions rotating ahead of expected liquidity.
When BlackRock, Fidelity, and Ark are consistently buying the dips, it creates an incredibly strong bid underneath the market. Any post-FOMC volatility to the downside will meet real money waiting with limit orders.
3. The Technical Setup Is Stupidly Clean
Look, I’m not usually one for overly neat chart patterns, but even I have to admit this one is ridiculous. Bitcoin spent most of November consolidating in a perfect ascending triangle between $89,000 support and converging resistance around $94,000. Today’s breakout attempt above that resistance – even though it got rejected – confirmed the pattern is alive.
Measured moves from ascending triangles typically target the height of the pattern added to breakout point. Do the math: roughly $9,000 height suggests $103,000 minimum if we get sustained follow-through.
Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent, but when technicals, fundamentals, and institutional flows all align… well, that’s when the really violent moves happen.
The Bull Case: What Happens If Powell Delivers
Imagine this scenario – and it’s not particularly far-fetched given current pricing:
- Powell announces the expected 25bps cut
- Dot plot shows perhaps one more cut baked in for Q1 2026
- Press conference language emphasizes “monitoring incoming data” but maintains accommodative stance
That’s the goldilocks outcome crypto traders are praying for. In that world, Bitcoin doesn’t just reclaim $94k – it probably never looks back. The path to $100k becomes almost inevitable as:
- Shorts get absolutely wrecked (open interest shows massive leverage betting against breakout)
- FOMO kicks in from retail sitting on the sidelines
- ETF flows accelerate as financial advisors finally get comfortable allocating
- Corporate treasury announcements start trickling in again
I’ve been doing this long enough to know that when Bitcoin breaks a major psychological level with momentum, it rarely stops at the next round number. $100k becomes support, not resistance, faster than most people expect.
The Bear Case: Yes, It Could Still Go Wrong
Of course, nothing in markets is guaranteed. There are three realistic scenarios that could trigger a nasty pullback:
- The Fed surprises with a hawkish hold or signals extended pause
- Some random macro data point (CPI, jobs report) comes in hot before the meeting
- Profit-taking from miners or early 2025 buyers decides this is “close enough” to six figures
In any of these cases, $88,000-$89,000 becomes the immediate downside target. That’s the previous all-time high zone from earlier this year and would represent roughly a 5-6% drop from current levels – painful but hardly catastrophic in Bitcoin terms.
The more dangerous scenario would be a breakdown below $88k, which could trigger cascading liquidations and potentially test $82k-$84k. But honestly? The amount of institutional money parked in ETFs makes that outcome feel increasingly unlikely unless something truly shocking happens.
What I’m Watching This Week
If you’re trading this event (and let’s be real, who isn’t?), these are the levels that actually matter:
| Level | Significance | Bullish Above / Bearish Below |
| $94,200 | Triangle resistance & today’s high | Confirms breakout |
| $91,800 | Previous local support | Hold for continuation |
| $89,000 | Major psychological + ETF cost basis | Last line of defense |
| $88,000 | Former ATH zone | Potential capitulation trigger |
Volume profile also shows massive accumulation between $90k-$92k over the past month. Any move below there would require serious selling pressure that simply hasn’t materialized yet.
The Bottom Line
Look, nobody has a crystal ball. But when you combine:
- Near-certainty of a rate cut
- Record institutional positioning
- Textbook technical setup
- Seasonal tailwinds (December historically strong for BTC)
…it’s hard not to be structurally bullish here. The risk/reward for longs heading into FOMC looks about as favorable as it ever gets in this market.
That doesn’t mean buy blindly at $93k with 50x leverage. It means the path of least resistance, for once, actually appears to be higher. Sometimes the market gives you these moments where everything lines up. This feels like one of them.
Whatever happens next week, one thing is certain: volatility is coming. The only question is direction.
And honestly? After everything Bitcoin has survived in 2025, betting against it right before what could be the most dovish Fed meeting in years feels like fighting the tape.
See you on the other side of $100k. Or not. Either way, it’s going to be one hell of a ride.
