Remember when everyone thought Bitcoin would never see $70,000 again after the 2022 crash? Here we are in December 2025, staring at $92,000 like it’s just another Tuesday. And yet, the entire crypto market is holding its breath for one single event today – the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision. One quarter-point cut, a dovish dot plot, or even just the right choice of words from Jerome Powell could be the spark that finally pushes BTC past six figures. Or everything could fizzle out and we slide right back to the mid-80s. Honestly, I’ve been around crypto long enough to know these moments are when the real money is made… and lost.
Why the Fed Still Moves Bitcoin More Than Anything Else
Let’s be real for a second. We love to pretend Bitcoin is this independent, decentralized money that laughs at central banks. The truth? BTC still dances every time the Fed sneezes. Lower interest rates mean cheaper dollars, more risk appetite, and a whole lot of fresh liquidity looking for a home. And right now, that home looks a lot like the orange coin.
Since the March 2023 banking mini-crisis, every single meaningful Bitcoin rally has come after – or in anticipation of – Fed easing signals. The 2023-2024 run from $25K to $73K? Started the day Powell hinted at pausing hikes. The summer 2024 leg from $53K to $108K (yes, we actually tapped that in late 2024 before the pullback)? Kicked off when the Fed delivered the first cut in years. History isn’t subtle here.
Where Bitcoin Stands Right Now – The Technical Picture
As I write this, Bitcoin is trading just under $92,000 after bouncing beautifully off the $90,000 zone that everyone thought would fold like paper. That level held. Multiple times. And that’s important because it tells us buyers are still very much in control on any dip.
Zoom out and you see something even more interesting – we’re still inside a massive ascending channel that started way back in 2023. The lower trendline sits around $84,000 right now. Until that breaks, calling for a new bear market feels premature at best.
- Daily RSI: cooling off from overbought but still above 50 – healthy
- Weekly MACD: bullish crossover intact
- Monthly chart: higher highs, higher lows – the definition of an uptrend
Put simply, the path of least resistance remains higher. The only question is whether today’s Fed meeting provides the catalyst we need.
The Bull Case – How We Actually Hit $100K This Cycle
Imagine this: Powell steps up, announces the expected 25 bps cut, and – crucially – signals at least two or three more cuts in 2026. The dot plot shifts lower. He even throws in the phrase “we’re data dependent but inflation is largely defeated.” The room erupts.
Within minutes, U.S. 10-year yields drop, the dollar weakens, and every risk asset on the planet rips higher. Bitcoin leads the charge. Here’s how the price action could play out:
- Break and close above $93,700 – this flips the entire range structure bullish and invalidates the bearish “lower high” narrative
- Quick move to $94,600 – $95,000 – that’s the measured move from the recent consolidation
- Retest turned support, then push to $97,500 – $98,000 where the previous all-time high cluster lives
- Final leg above $100,000 – psychological round number, but also where a ton of sell orders are stacked from people who bought the top last time
“Rate cuts are rocket fuel for Bitcoin. Every single major leg higher in this cycle has happened on the back of easier financial conditions. Today is no different.”
– Veteran macro trader (widely shared sentiment on Crypto Twitter)
And it’s not just technicals. Institutional flows are waiting on the sidelines. Spot ETF inflows have slowed in the last two weeks exactly because managers want clarity on the rates path. Give them that clarity on the dovish side and we’re talking billions pouring in before New Year’s Eve.
The Bear Case – When “Risk-Off” Actually Wins
Now let’s look at the other side – because pretending downside doesn’t exist is how people get wrecked.
What if Powell sounds cautious? What if the dot plot shows only one cut in 2026? Or worse – what if they skip December entirely? Suddenly every “buy the dip” trader who’s been conditioned for the last two years starts to question the narrative.
The first real support under current price sits around $90,900 – that’s the recent breakout level. Lose that on a daily close and things get ugly fast:
- $87,500 – the 50-day moving average and previous range top
- $84,000 – the ascending channel trendline I mentioned earlier
- $78,000 – $80,000 – where the 200-day sits and a lot of late buyers would be underwater
I’m not saying we’re going there tomorrow. But a hawkish surprise could easily trigger a 10-15% flush lower in a matter of days. We’ve seen it before.
What History Tells Us About Fed Days and Bitcoin
People love to say “this time is different.” Usually it isn’t. Let’s look at the last three major Fed pivot moments:
| Fed Event | Bitcoin Reaction (7 days) | Outcome |
| March 2023 pause signal | +42% | New bull market confirmed |
| September 2024 first cut | +28% | BTC from $53K → $73K |
| November 2024 50 bps cut | +19% | Pushed BTC above $90K |
Three for three. Dovish Fed = explosive Bitcoin moves higher. The only time we got burned was when the Fed surprised hawkish (May 2023) and BTC dropped 12% in a week. The pattern is pretty clear.
My Personal Take – What I’m Doing Today
Full transparency: I’ve been adding small chunks on every dip below $91,000 this week. Not financial advice – just what I’m comfortable with. The risk/reward around current levels feels heavily skewed to the upside, especially with the ETF flows we’ve seen every time rates look friendly.
If we get the cut and a dovish statement, I’ll likely let winners run and look to add more above $95K on the inevitable pullback. If somehow they skip or sound hawkish, I’ve got dry powder ready around $87K. Either way, volatility is about to spike and that’s when the real opportunities appear.
Final Thoughts – This Is Why We’re Here
Moments like today are exactly why most of us got into crypto in the first place. Not for the 2% daily grinds, but for these macro inflection points where everything aligns and the chart goes vertical. Or sometimes vertical the other way.
Whatever happens at 2:00 PM EST, one thing is certain – the Bitcoin price prediction game is about to get a lot more interesting. Strap in.
Disclosure: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile. Always do your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making investment decisions.
