Remember when Bitcoin touched $126,000 just a few weeks ago and everyone was calling for $150K by Christmas? Yeah, me too. Fast forward to today, November 26, 2025, and we’re staring at $87,000 like it’s perfectly normal to lose almost a third of your value in a month. Welcome to crypto – the only place where a 30% drop is just “healthy correction.”
But something interesting happened yesterday. After hemorrhaging billions through spot Bitcoin ETFs throughout November, we finally saw meaningful inflows again – $238 million in a single day. Is this the first crack of light, or just another head-fake before the next leg down? Let’s dig in.
Where Bitcoin Stands Right Now (And Why It Matters)
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades just above $87,000 after bouncing from an overnight low near $86,200. That’s still miles away from the euphoria of October, but it’s also holding above some pretty important technical levels that bulls desperately want to defend.
I’ve been through enough cycles to know one thing with certainty: the psychological damage from these drawdowns is real. When BTC drops 30%+ this fast, even seasoned holders start questioning everything. The fear is palpable on trading floors and Telegram groups alike.
Yet here’s what keeps me from hitting the panic button – the macro setup hasn’t actually deteriorated that much. The Fed isn’t hiking rates tomorrow. Trump isn’t suddenly anti-crypto (quite the opposite). And those ETF inflows? They matter more than most retail traders realize.
The ETF Story Nobody’s Talking About
November has been brutal for Bitcoin ETFs. We’re talking $3.5 billion in cumulative outflows – the kind of number that makes even BlackRock executives sweat. When institutions run for the exits that aggressively, price follows. Simple as that.
But yesterday’s $238 million inflow wasn’t just random noise. It was the first meaningful positive day in weeks, and it came right as price found support near the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the entire move up from the September lows. Coincidence? Maybe. But I’ve learned not to ignore these convergences.
When the smart money stops selling and starts buying the dip – even tentatively – that’s usually when the bleeding stops.
Think about it this way: institutions don’t turn on a dime. These flows represent decisions made days or weeks ago. The fact we’re seeing green after such prolonged red suggests at minimum, the selling pressure is exhausting itself.
Technical Levels That Actually Matter Right Now
Let’s get specific because vague predictions are worthless. Here’s what I’m watching like a hawk:
- $88,000 – The first real test. This was previous resistance that became support, then resistance again. A daily close above here changes everything.
- $90,000 – The big psychological level. We’ve rejected here three times since the top. Fourth time’s the charm? Or another rejection that sends us lower?
- $85,000 – The line in the sand for bulls. Lose this on a weekly closing basis and $80,000 becomes very real, very fast.
- $80,000-$82,000 – Where the real buyers live. This zone held beautifully during the summer correction and represents the last major demand area before we start talking about much uglier levels.
Right now, we’re consolidating in no-man’s land between $85K and $90K. These are the moments that define the next move – either accumulation before the next leg up, or distribution before the next leg down.
The Bull Case: Why $100K+ Is Still Very Much Alive
Look, I’ve been wrong before (many times), but the bull case here feels stronger than most people think. Here’s why:
First, we’re still in the post-halving year. Historically, the real parabolic moves happen 12-18 months after halving, and we’re only 19 months in from the April 2024 event. These corrections are normal – in fact, they’re required. The 2021 bull run had multiple 30-50% drawdowns before the final push to $69K.
Second, the macro backdrop remains extraordinarily favorable. We’ve got a crypto-friendly administration coming in, potential regulatory clarity, and central banks still printing money like it’s 2021. The dollar’s been weakening, gold’s at all-time highs – all of this screams “risk-on” for Bitcoin.
Third, and perhaps most importantly, the ETF infrastructure is now mature. We’re not relying on retail FOMO anymore. We’ve got institutions who are under-allocated and know it. Every dip like this brings in fresh capital that wasn’t here during previous cycles.
This isn’t 2022. The buyers today have deeper pockets and longer time horizons than the degens who panic-sold at $16K.
The Bear Case: What Could Send Us to $70K (Or Lower)
That said, I’m not drinking the Kool-Aid completely. There are legitimate risks here that could absolutely crush this market if they materialize.
The biggest one? More ETF outflows. If institutions decide this correction has further to run – perhaps triggered by some macro shock or regulatory surprise – we could easily see another $5-10 billion leave the system. That’s the kind of selling pressure that breaks through $80K like it’s not even there.
We’re also seeing concerning signs in the derivatives markets. Funding rates have been negative for weeks, open interest is dropping, and the options skew shows traders paying up for downside protection. These aren’t screaming buy signals.
- Global liquidity conditions could tighten unexpectedly
- Profit-taking from early ETF investors could accelerate
- Technical breakdowns below $85K would trigger massive stop losses
- The broader risk-off move in traditional markets could drag crypto down
I’ve seen too many “this time is different” narratives blow up to ignore these risks completely.
My Personal Take: What I’m Actually Doing
Full transparency – I’m accumulating between $80K and $90K. Not financial advice, just what makes sense to me given the risk/reward.
At current levels, Bitcoin is trading at roughly the same price it was when the ETFs first launched. All the infrastructure that’s been built since then – the political support, the institutional adoption, the regulatory progress – that’s all real and permanent. You’re essentially getting the same price with significantly less risk than a year ago.
That feels like a pretty good deal to me.
Short-Term Price Targets (Next 4-6 Weeks)
Here’s my base case scenario:
| Scenario | Probability | Target | Trigger |
| Bullish Breakout | 40% | $98,000-$105,000 | Daily close above $90K with increasing ETF inflows |
| Consolidation | 45% | $82,000-$92,000 range | Choppy price action with mixed flows |
| Bearish Breakdown | 15% | $70,000-$75,000 | Weekly close below $85K with accelerating outflows |
Yes, I’m more bullish than bearish. The setup just feels too similar to previous cycle corrections that ultimately resolved higher.
The Bottom Line
Bitcoin at $87,000 after a 30% correction feels like déjà vu – because it is. We’ve been here before, multiple times, in every single bull market. The difference now is the quality of holders and the permanence of the infrastructure that’s been built.
Could we go lower? Absolutely. $80K would surprise exactly no one who’s been paying attention. But is this the end of the bull market? Not even close.
The game hasn’t changed. Bitcoin remains the hardest money humanity has ever created, and we’re still ridiculously early in the adoption curve. These corrections are painful, but they’re also where life-changing wealth is made.
Stay patient. Stay rational. And maybe, just maybe, consider that the best opportunities often come when it feels the worst.
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