Remember when everyone was calling for $100,000 by Christmas? Yeah, me too. But right now, as I stare at the charts on this quiet December evening, Bitcoin is doing what it loves most—keeping absolutely everyone guessing.
After teasing us with a run toward $94,000, the king of crypto got slapped back down harder than I expected. And honestly? The way price is behaving underneath the surface tells me this isn’t just another healthy pullback. There’s a real chance we’re about to see a much deeper correction than most people are ready for.
Why the $94,000 Rejection Actually Matters More Than You Think
Let’s be real—$94,000 isn’t just a random round number that looks pretty on a chart. It’s a perfect storm of technical confluence that has rejected Bitcoin not once, not twice, but multiple times in recent weeks.
Think of it like trying to push through a brick wall disguised as a curtain. From far away it looks possible. Get up close and—bam—solid resistance.
Here’s what’s actually stacked up at that level:
- The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the entire move down from the all-time high
- The Value Area High (VAH) of the current multi-week range
- A high-timeframe rejection candle wick that screams “not yet”
- Heavy overhead supply from earlier breakout traps
Every time Bitcoin has poked its head above $94K recently, the selling pressure has been immediate and brutal. This isn’t retail FOMO getting shaken out—this feels like smart money actively defending that zone.
The Point of Control Breakdown That Changes Everything
If you’ve never used volume profile before, here’s the simple version: the Point of Control (POC) is literally the price level where the most trading actually happened in a given range. It’s where the “fair value” was agreed upon by the market.
When price trades above the POC, bulls are in control. Below it? Bears take the wheel.
Guess where we are right now?
Bitcoin has sliced straight through the POC like it wasn’t even there. And in my experience, once that happens, the market rarely just shrugs and climbs back above it without some serious pain first.
Trading below the POC after failing to break range highs is one of the cleanest bearish structure shifts you can get. It’s not emotional—it’s pure supply and demand mechanics.
I’ve watched this exact setup play out more times than I can count, and the statistics aren’t kind to the bulls when this happens.
$88,960 – The Last Real Line in the Sand
Right now, there’s one level that every serious Bitcoin trader is watching like a hawk: $88,960.
This isn’t some arbitrary support I pulled out of thin air. It’s the Value Area Low (VAL) of the current range and has acted as rock-solid support multiple times over the past few weeks.
But here’s what worries me—volume is thinning out as we approach it. The buying conviction just isn’t there like it was during previous tests.
If $88,960 cracks—and I’m increasingly thinking it will—the next meaningful support doesn’t show up until the mid-$70K region. And yes, that means $76,510 is very much in play.
That would represent a roughly 15% drop from current levels. In crypto terms? That’s actually pretty normal. But try telling that to someone who bought the top thinking we were going straight to $150K.
What Would Actually Flip This Bearish Bias?
Look, I’m not married to the bearish thesis here. Markets change, and they change fast. But for me to even consider flipping bullish again, I’d need to see some very specific things happen.
- A decisive close back above the POC (currently around $91,200 and shifting)
- Acceptance above $94,000 with expanding volume
- A higher high and higher low structure on the daily timeframe
- Some actual fundamental catalyst—not just hopium tweets
Until those boxes get checked? The risk/reward heavily favors the downside.
Don’t get me wrong—Bitcoin could absolutely bounce hard from current levels. We’ve seen vicious short squeezes before. But betting on that without confirmation feels a lot like catching a falling knife right now.
The Broader Market Context Nobody’s Talking About
One thing that’s flying under the radar is how altcoins are performing during this Bitcoin weakness. Usually, when BTC corrects, alts get absolutely destroyed. But right now? Many are holding up relatively well.
That tells me two things:
- Money is rotating rather than completely exiting the market
- Bitcoin dominance might actually roll over if we do see that deeper correction
In other words, a Bitcoin drop to $76K doesn’t necessarily mean the entire crypto market is doomed. It could actually set up one of those beautiful altseason environments we’ve been waiting for.
Silver linings, right?
How I’m Positioning Right Now (And What I’m Watching)
Full disclosure—I’m mostly in cash with a small short bias via perpetual futures. Not because I think Bitcoin is going to zero (please), but because the current setup screams “protect your capital” to me.
Here’s what would make me change my mind and start buying aggressively:
- A weekly close above $94,000 (that would be huge)
- Strong volume-supported bounce from the $85K–$88K zone
- Any kind of positive macro catalyst (Fed being dovish helps)
Until then? I’m perfectly content watching from the sidelines. There’s zero shame in missing the exact bottom if it means avoiding a 15–20% drawdown.
Remember: the market will be here tomorrow. Your capital might not be if you keep trying to hero-trade every single move.
At the end of the day, Bitcoin has survived worse. Much worse. This isn’t 2018 or 2022. The fundamentals are stronger than they’ve ever been—institutional adoption continues, ETFs keep accumulating, nation-states are buying.
But fundamentals don’t pay the bills when technicals are screaming caution. And right now? The technicals are about as cautious as I’ve seen them in months.
So zoom out, protect your downside, and remember that every major Bitcoin bear market has created millionaires on the other side. The question is whether you’re willing to endure the pain required to be one of them.
Stay safe out there. The charts aren’t done moving yet.
