It’s Christmas Day, and while most people are unwrapping presents or enjoying a quiet moment with family, the crypto market decided to keep things interesting. Bitcoin, the undisputed king of digital assets, is hovering stubbornly below that psychological $88,000 mark. I’ve been watching these kinds of holiday lulls for years, and they always feel a bit eerie—like the calm before a storm or just seasonal fatigue. But this time, there’s real money moving out the door.
Over the past week, something notable has been happening behind the scenes. Investors in U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have been pulling back, and not in small amounts. The numbers are starting to add up in a way that makes you pause and wonder if this is just a blip or the start of a broader shift.
A Persistent Outflow Trend That’s Hard to Ignore
Let’s get straight to the heart of it. For five consecutive trading days, these spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net money flowing out rather than in. The latest figure from Christmas Eve alone showed around $175 million leaving the funds. When you stack that on top of the previous days, the total exceeds $825 million. That’s not pocket change—it’s serious institutional capital taking a step back.
In my experience following these products since their launch, outflows like this during December aren’t entirely unprecedented. Holidays tend to thin out trading volume and encourage portfolio rebalancing. But the consistency here, five days straight with zero inflows on the final day, raises eyebrows.
Breaking Down the Numbers Day by Day
To really understand the scope, it’s worth looking at how this unfolded. The biggest players led the charge on the downside. One of the largest funds saw over $91 million exit on December 24 alone. Others followed with more moderate but still meaningful withdrawals—around $25 million from a converted trust product and $17 million from another major issuer.
The rest of the pack contributed smaller amounts that, when combined, pushed the daily total higher. What stands out is the complete absence of positive flows. Not a single fund managed to attract fresh capital that day. It’s a uniform picture of caution.
- Five straight trading sessions of net outflows
- Total exceeding $825 million in that short window
- December month-to-date close to $804 million out the door
- Still far below November’s massive $3.5 billion exodus
Perhaps the most interesting aspect is how this compares to earlier in the year. We’ve seen explosive inflows drive Bitcoin to new heights, so this reversal feels sharp by contrast. Yet context matters—November was an outlier with its own set of pressures.
Why the Holiday Season Might Be Playing a Role
Many observers point to the festive period as a primary culprit. Trading desks quiet down, liquidity thins, and institutions often use the end of the year for tax-related moves. It’s a pattern I’ve noticed repeatedly: volume drops, volatility can spike on low participation, and flows swing based on administrative needs rather than pure market conviction.
Some market watchers suggest this is largely tax-loss harvesting in action. Investors realizing losses to offset gains elsewhere before the year closes. If that’s the main driver, we could see a snapback once January arrives and fresh allocations begin. It’s a plausible explanation that fits historical behavior.
Most of the selling pressure appears tied to year-end tax strategies, which typically wrap up soon after the holidays.
— Market observer
That said, it’s hard to dismiss entirely the possibility of shifting sentiment. After such a strong run earlier, some profit-taking feels natural. The question is whether this pause turns into something more prolonged.
The Massive Options Expiry Looming Tomorrow
Adding another layer of intrigue is tomorrow’s event on one of the largest crypto derivatives platforms. Roughly $23.6 billion in Bitcoin options contracts are set to expire on December 26. This ranks among the biggest expiry events ever recorded on that exchange.
Large expiries like this often act as gravity points for price action. Traders position ahead of time, gamma exposure can pin or push the spot price, and once it passes, volatility sometimes picks up again. With Bitcoin already trading sideways, the outcome could provide a catalyst—either way.
I’ve watched these events closely over the years, and they rarely pass without some fireworks. Whether it resolves bullishly or adds downward pressure remains to be seen, but it’s definitely something participants are mindful of right now.
Regional Differences in Buying and Selling Pressure
Another angle that’s emerged recently highlights a geographical split. While U.S.-based products show consistent outflows, Asian hours often tell a different story. Demand there appears steadier, with buyers stepping in during dips.
One analyst recently noted that the United States has temporarily become the largest net seller of Bitcoin through these vehicles—a reversal from much of the post-launch narrative. It’s a reminder that global markets operate on different clocks and incentives.
This divergence could help provide a floor. As long as other regions continue absorbing supply, extreme downside might remain limited. Still, the short-term optics aren’t great when the headline flows are negative.
Technical Picture: Where Bitcoin Stands Right Now
Shifting to the charts, Bitcoin has been consolidating after pulling back from its recent local peak near $90,000. It’s found a range roughly between $86,000 and $88,000, with the price at the time of writing sitting around $87,500. That’s still a respectable level, but notably almost 30% off the all-time high from earlier.
From a technical standpoint, a few elements suggest caution in the near term. The price remains below the 50-day simple moving average, which often acts as a gauge of short-term trend health. Momentum indicators like MACD show fading upside pressure, with the lines pinned in bearish configuration.
The Bearish Flag Pattern Everyone’s Talking About
Perhaps most discussed right now is the potential bearish flag formation on the daily timeframe. These patterns typically consist of a sharp decline followed by a consolidating channel upward—exactly what we’ve seen since the drop from $90,000.
If this pattern plays out classically, a breakdown below the lower boundary could signal continuation lower. Traders are closely monitoring the $85,200 zone, which has held as decent demand throughout December. Losing that might open the door toward lower levels seen in late November, around $80,700 or so.
Of course, technical patterns aren’t destiny. They reflect probability based on past behavior. A strong catalyst—like positive resolution to tomorrow’s expiry or renewed inflows—could invalidate the setup entirely.
- Current range: $86,000 – $88,000
- Key support to watch: $85,200
- Next potential downside target: $80,757
- Resistance overhead: $88,000 then $90,000
In many ways, this feels like a pivotal moment. The market has digested enormous gains over the past year, and now it’s testing whether the foundation remains solid or needs a deeper retracement.
What Could Change the Trajectory?
Looking ahead, several factors could shift momentum. First, the conclusion of year-end tax maneuvers. Once portfolios are squared away, fresh capital often rotates back in during January—a phenomenon sometimes called the “January effect” in traditional markets that has analogs in crypto.
Second, any surprises around tomorrow’s options expiry. Max pain levels, open interest distribution, and how dealers hedge can all influence spot direction in the immediate aftermath.
Third, broader macro cues. Interest rate expectations, dollar strength, and risk appetite across assets tend to correlate with Bitcoin’s moves. If equities remain resilient into year-end, that could provide tailwind.
Finally, the ETF flow picture itself. A return to consistent inflows would signal renewed institutional conviction and likely propel price action higher. We’ve seen how powerful that dynamic can be when it’s running in the opposite direction.
Flows into these products have been one of the strongest drivers of price discovery this cycle. A reversal back to accumulation would be a major bullish signal.
It’s worth remembering that Bitcoin has weathered similar periods of doubt before. Seasonal weakness, technical retracements, and temporary outflows are part of the landscape. What matters is the longer arc.
Final Thoughts on the Current Setup
As we close out 2025, Bitcoin finds itself at an interesting crossroads. The immediate pressures—holiday thinning, tax harvesting, a large expiry—are real and contributing to the stalled price action. Yet the underlying adoption story, infrastructure growth, and global demand haven’t vanished overnight.
In my view, this consolidation could be healthy digestion after an extraordinary run. Or it might evolve into a deeper correction if supports give way. Either way, volatility tends to reward patience more than panic.
The next few sessions, particularly around and after the December 26 expiry, should offer clearer clues. Until then, the market seems content to trade sideways, letting the various forces play out. One thing feels certain: when Bitcoin decides its next big move, it rarely does so quietly.
Whatever happens, moments like these are what make this space endlessly fascinating. The blend of traditional finance mechanics with digital asset innovation keeps even seasoned observers on their toes. Here’s to hoping the new year brings clarity—and perhaps a fresh leg higher.
