Have you ever stared at a crypto chart that’s flashing red warnings everywhere, yet something deep down tells you the real move is still coming? That’s exactly the vibe right now with Bitcoin. We’re sitting around $95,000 in mid-January 2026, after a choppy start to the year, and yet a growing chorus of voices insists we’re on the verge of blasting past that psychological $99,000 barrier. It’s the kind of contrarian call that either looks genius in hindsight or painfully optimistic in the moment.
I’ve followed these cycles long enough to know that markets love to fool the crowd. Bearish candlesticks? Check. Cooling momentum? Absolutely. But underneath the surface noise, some pretty compelling forces are quietly lining up. Let’s unpack why at least one sharp analyst believes Bitcoin isn’t done climbing yet—and why that view might not be as wild as it first appears.
Why Bitcoin Could Still Push Past $99,000
The core argument boils down to this: Bitcoin often needs to tag certain price levels before it allows itself a meaningful breather. In this case, reaching toward $99,000 or slightly beyond could serve as the necessary “relief valve” before any deeper pullback. Without that upside extension, a correction might slice too aggressively through key supports and scare everyone out prematurely.
Think about it like a rubber band. Pull it only halfway and the snap back is weak. Stretch it fully first, and the release carries real force. Right now, the chart is coiling, and some technical readers see that final stretch aiming for the high 90s before any serious retracement kicks in.
Reading the Technical Picture Carefully
At first glance, the daily and weekly candles aren’t screaming bullish. We’ve got some bearish engulfing patterns, momentum indicators drifting lower, and price hugging beneath short-term moving averages. Classic “sell” signals in many textbooks.
Yet context matters enormously. The recent bounce from the low 90s came right after softer inflation numbers hit the wires—exactly the kind of macro trigger that has historically lit a fire under risk assets. Traders didn’t just shrug; they bought. That tells me the underlying bid is still alive, even if it’s not roaring yet.
Support around $90,000–$92,000 has held firm so far. If we do see a pullback after testing higher, the hope is that it respects those levels rather than crashing through. A higher high followed by a shallow retracement would reset sentiment beautifully for the next leg up.
The market wants to touch this target before retracing deeper so the correction doesn’t break critical support.
– Crypto market analyst observation
That’s the kind of nuanced take that separates experienced traders from the noise. It’s not blind hopium; it’s pattern recognition combined with an understanding of how liquidity and psychology interact.
The ETF Inflow Engine Is Revving Again
One of the biggest under-the-radar stories right now is the renewed appetite for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. After some choppy flows late last year, we’re seeing consistent net buying. Hundreds of millions poured in during single sessions recently, pushing weekly and year-to-date totals into impressive territory.
- Robust one-week inflows signaling fresh capital
- Year-to-date accumulation that dwarfs earlier hesitation
- Institutional buyers stepping in when retail sentiment wavers
This isn’t speculative froth—it’s structural demand. Once Wall Street has easy access to BTC exposure without custody headaches, the flows tend to be stickier than pure retail momentum. And sticky money tends to push prices higher over time, even through periods of doubt.
In my view, these ETFs have quietly become the backbone of the current cycle. They absorb selling pressure and provide a steady bid that wasn’t there in previous bull runs. Ignore them at your peril.
Liquidity: The Silent Driver Nobody Talks About Enough
Perhaps the most intriguing macro angle comes from a well-known crypto figure who recently pointed out that dollar liquidity is the real puppet master here. When credit expands and money sloshes around freely, risk assets—including Bitcoin—tend to feast. When it tightens, they starve.
Last year was tough precisely because liquidity conditions were unsupportive. No massive speculative mania, no parabolic blow-off top—just a slow grind lower as dollars became scarcer. But the script could flip dramatically in the months ahead.
Policy changes, potential rate adjustments, and broader economic stimulus ideas all point toward easier money. Lower borrowing costs, increased government spending in certain sectors, even tweaks to mortgage markets could flood the system with fresh dollars. And wherever dollars go looking for yield, scarce digital assets often catch a bid.
The rally could be sustained as dollar liquidity rapidly increases.
– Prominent crypto thinker
That’s not a guarantee, of course. But it’s a logical framework that aligns with how markets have behaved for decades. Bitcoin isn’t trading in a vacuum; it’s reacting to the same forces that move stocks, bonds, and commodities.
What Could Derail the Rally—and What Wouldn’t
Let’s be real for a second. Nothing in crypto is certain. A sudden risk-off move in equities, unexpected regulatory noise, or a macro shock could send prices reeling. We’ve seen it before and we’ll see it again.
But notice what’s not on the worry list right now: fundamentals of the network itself. Hash rate remains robust, adoption metrics keep creeping higher, and institutional infrastructure grows stronger by the month. The bear case feels more tactical than structural.
- Short-term bearish price action could persist
- Volatility will remain elevated no matter what
- Any rally past $99,000 likely precedes a healthy reset
- Longer-term outlook stays constructive if liquidity cooperates
That’s the balanced view I keep coming back to. Chase every green candle and you’ll get burned; dismiss every contrarian call and you’ll miss the turns.
Broader Market Context in Early 2026
Zoom out a bit and the picture gets even more interesting. We’re still relatively early in what many expect to be a multi-year expansion phase for digital assets. The halving cycle effects are still playing out, institutional participation is nowhere near saturation, and global uncertainty keeps driving interest in decentralized stores of value.
Compare that to traditional markets. Equities are expensive by most measures, bonds offer limited upside in a potentially inflationary environment, and cash earns next to nothing once you adjust for real returns. Bitcoin, for all its volatility, still offers asymmetric potential.
I’ve watched enough cycles to know that the moments of maximum doubt often precede the strongest moves. Right now feels like one of those moments—everyone’s looking at the red flags while the smart money quietly accumulates.
Trading Psychology and Position Management
If you’re actively trading this, a few principles stand out. First, respect the levels. A failure to hold $90,000 on a weekly close would shift the narrative dramatically. Until then, the path of least resistance still points higher.
Second, size appropriately. Volatility isn’t going away. Use stops, scale in on dips, and take partial profits into strength. The worst thing you can do is go all-in at the exact moment euphoria returns.
Third, stay humble. The market doesn’t care about your conviction level. It rewards adaptability, not stubbornness.
Looking Ahead: Targets and Scenarios
Short-term, a push toward $99,000–$103,000 feels plausible if momentum builds. That would represent a clean extension of the recent bounce and likely trigger the next wave of FOMO buying.
Medium-term, assuming liquidity conditions improve as expected, new all-time highs become realistic. Not tomorrow, not next week—but within the next several quarters? Quite possible.
Long-term, the structural story remains intact. Bitcoin continues carving out its place as a legitimate asset class. The noise will fade; the adoption will not.
So yes, the bearish indicators are real. But so are the bullish undercurrents. And in markets, it’s often the undercurrents that end up doing the heavy lifting.
Whether we see that $99,000 print sooner rather than later remains an open question. But dismissing the possibility entirely? That might be the bigger risk right now.
What do you think—bull trap or setup for the next leg higher? The next few weeks should tell us a lot.
