Remember that stomach-dropping moment when Bitcoin sliced straight through $100k down to the mid-60s earlier this month? Yeah, me too. I watched my portfolio turn an ugly shade of red and started hearing the same tired “crypto is dead” chorus all over again.
But here’s the thing: sharp drawdowns like that have happened in every single Bitcoin bull market. Every. Single. One. And almost every time, the people who kept their cool ended up laughing on the way back up.
According to fresh analysis coming out of Wall Street this week, we’re on the cusp of exactly that kind of violent snap-back rally. One respected technical shop is pounding the table that Bitcoin is about to rocket at least back toward $100,000 before year-end, maybe even higher.
Why the Worst May Already Be Behind Us
A 36% peak-to-trough crash is brutal, no sugar-coating it. Yet when you zoom out, that kind of move is actually pretty standard for Bitcoin during parabolic advances. In 2017 we saw multiple 30-40% drops. In 2021 we had two separate 50%+ haircuts. The pattern is eerily consistent.
What’s different this time? The selling appears to have been driven by a perfect storm of macro worries and crypto-specific profit-taking rather than any fundamental breakdown in the Bitcoin story.
“After a -36% peak-to-trough decline, we think Bitcoin is now poised to continue its reflex rally at least back towards 100k.”
Head of Technical Strategy at a major investment bank, Nov 2025
That quote didn’t come from some random Twitter maxi. It came from Jonathan Krinsky at BTIG, a firm that institutions actually pay attention to. When they speak, smart money listens.
Three Forces That Crushed Price (And Why They’re Fading)
Let’s break down exactly what spooked the market so we can see why the pressure might be easing.
- Rotation out of risk-on assets: A lot of the same traders who piled into AI stocks also own crypto. When Nvidia and friends started looking frothy, money flowed into “safe” havens like gold. That rotation hit Bitcoin hard.
- Mixed macro data: Hot inflation prints one day, weak jobs numbers the next; markets hate uncertainty. Bitcoin, still treated by many as a high-beta tech play, got punished.
- Long-term holder distribution: We’re roughly 18 months post-halving. Historically, OG holders who survived four years of bear market start taking chips off the table around this point in the cycle. Perfectly normal profit-taking, not capitulation.
The beautiful part? All three of those pressures appear to be losing steam. Gold is rolling over, macro data is stabilizing, and the on-chain data shows the bulk of old-coin selling already happened.
Mining Stocks Are Screaming “Bottom”
If you want confirmation that savvy players are buying the dip, look no further than the mining sector. While Bitcoin dropped 36%, many miners fell 60-70%. That kind of exaggerated move almost always marks panic lows.
Fast-forward to this week and two names in particular are acting like they’ve been shot out of a cannon:
- Cipher Mining → up roughly 35% since Monday
- Terawulf → up roughly 31% in the same span
Those aren’t small moves. That’s the kind of explosive upside you typically see when the market sniffs out a major trend reversal. Even better, the broader mining index has held a key technical support level and analysts see another 15% upside before serious resistance kicks in.
In my experience, when miners lead the way higher after a brutal sell-off, Bitcoin itself usually follows within weeks.
Ether, Solana, and XRP Are Waking Up Too
It’s not just Bitcoin catching a bid. The majors are moving in lockstep, which is classic risk-on behavior.
Ether has ripped almost 13% in five days and looks ready to reclaim $3,400 soon. Solana and XRP are both up double-digits over the same period. When the entire complex starts moving together like this, it usually means fresh capital is rotating back in, not just short covering.
So How High Can This Reflex Rally Actually Go?
BTIG’s base case is straightforward: Bitcoin retests the old highs near $100,000. But if momentum really takes hold (and history is any guide), we could easily blow straight through to new all-time highs before any serious consolidation.
Think about it. The halving supply shock is still in its early innings. Institutional adoption continues accelerating. Spot ETFs keep vacuuming up coins. And perhaps most importantly, we haven’t even seen the real retail FOMO phase yet.
All the ingredients that fueled the 2024 leg higher are still very much in place. We just had a healthy (if painful) flush-out of leverage and weak hands.
What I’m Watching Over the Next Few Weeks
- Can Bitcoin close above $95,000 this week? That would flip the short-term trend decisively bullish.
- Do mining stocks continue outperforming? Outperformance that lasts more than a week is usually very telling.
- Stablecoin inflows, especially on weekends. Big deposits tend to precede major upside moves.
- Whether gold rolls over hard. If it does, that rotation trade unwinds and money flows back to crypto.
If most of those boxes get checked, I wouldn’t be shocked to see us trading north of $100k by Christmas.
Look, nobody has a crystal ball. Another 20% wick lower is always possible in crypto. But the risk/reward right here feels heavily skewed to the upside for anyone with a horizon measured in months, not minutes.
The bears had their shot. They threw everything they had at it: macro fears, profit-taking, leveraged liquidations, you name it.
And yet Bitcoin is already up 10% in five days, miners are exploding, and Wall Street technicians are openly calling for $100k.
If that doesn’t smell like the early stages of the next leg higher, I don’t know what does.
So yeah… maybe it’s time to stop listening to the “crypto is dead” crowd and start paying attention to what price, volume, and the smart money are actually saying.
The bull might have just caught its second wind.
