Remember that gut-punch feeling when Bitcoin sliced through $100K like it was nothing, only to give back more than 30% in what felt like the blink of an eye? Yeah, me too. As I write this on November 27, 2025, BTC is teasing the $91,000 zone again, and the crypto community is having a full-blown existential crisis about what comes next.
I’ve been through enough cycles to know one thing for certain – when analysts are this divided, something big is brewing. Let’s dig in.
The $90K Range Just Became the Most Important Level in Crypto
For months, the area between roughly $89K and $92K was rock-solid support. It held beautifully through late 2024 and into early 2025. Then something changed. The moment global tariff talks heated up, that same zone flipped into brutal overhead resistance. Watching price get rejected there multiple times felt almost personal.
Now Bitcoin is back testing it from below, and the question on everyone’s mind is simple: is this a successful retest that sets up the next parabolic move, or the prelude to something much uglier?
Why This Level Matters More Than Any Other Right Now
Think of it like a former floor that became a ceiling. When price finally breaks back above a level that previously rejected it multiple times, the psychology shifts dramatically. Traders who shorted the breakdown cover. Stop-losses above the range trigger. New buyers who missed the bottom jump in. It can create violent squeezes.
Conversely, if price fails here again, all those trapped longs from the previous breakdown become fresh supply. The path of least resistance quickly becomes down – potentially much lower.
“The $97K-$98K area is absolutely stacked with liquidity after the heavy selling we saw a couple weeks ago. That pocket of lower highs created a textbook zone for the market to target next.”
– Respected technical trader on X
The Bull Case: This Is Just Healthy Consolidation
Let’s be real – 30% drawdowns aren’t exactly rare in Bitcoin bull markets. In 2021 we saw three separate 30-50% corrections before the final blow-off top. The 2017 run had even wilder swings. So the mere fact that we corrected hard doesn’t automatically mean the macro bull is dead.
Several signals actually look pretty constructive if you zoom out a bit.
- Price has held above the previous all-time high from the 2021 cycle (around $69K) with ease – that’s massive psychological support.
- The 4-hour chart shows BTC trading back above its 50-period EMA, with RSI holding above 50 and Stochastic turning higher.
- On-chain data reveals exchange balances continue trending lower – classic accumulation behavior.
- Long-term holder supply just hit another all-time high. The people who have held through multiple cycles aren’t selling.
Perhaps most interestingly, we haven’t yet seen the kind of extreme capitulation that typically marks cycle lows. The fear and greed index bottomed around 25 – uncomfortable, yes, but nowhere near the single digits we saw in March 2020 or November 2022.
In my experience, real bear markets come with vomiting, not this controlled grinding lower we’ve witnessed. The fact that $80K held as support on the first real test actually impressed me more than most people seem to realize.
The Bear Case: This Drawdown Looks Different
But let’s not kid ourselves – there are some genuinely concerning signals too.
For starters, this is the fastest we’ve ever retraced 30%+ from an all-time high during what was supposed to be the “post-halving parabolic phase.” That’s new. Historically, the deepest corrections in bull markets have come after we were already extended, not right as we were breaking out to new highs.
“At no point in Bitcoin’s history has it fallen this sharply from new highs and then resumed the bull market. We’ve entered a bear phase that could drag on for years.”
– Veteran market commentator
There’s also the leverage question. Open interest remains elevated despite the drop, and funding rates flipped negative only briefly. That tells me a lot of traders are still positioned for the upside and could get wrecked if we break lower. We’ve seen what happens when over-leveraged longs get flushed – it tends to snowball.
Then there’s BTC dominance. Usually when we enter real bear markets, capital rotates into Bitcoin as the safe haven. We saw exactly that after FTX collapsed – alts got obliterated while BTC dominance climbed. Right now? Dominance is still grinding lower. That’s not the behavior of a market seeking safety.
What Needs to Happen for Each Scenario
Here’s where it gets practical. These are the levels I’m watching like a hawk.
- Bull scenario confirmation: We need a weekly close above $94K, followed by acceptance above $97-98K. That would flip the entire narrative and likely trigger the mother of all short squeezes.
- Bear scenario confirmation: A sustained break and close below $84K would invalidate most bullish structures and open the path to $70K or lower. At that point, the “bear market” calls would become consensus.
- Most likely outcome (my personal take): We grind sideways in this $84K-$98K range for weeks, maybe months, shaking out weak hands before the eventual resolution. These periods of maximum confusion often precede the biggest moves.
I’ve learned the hard way that trying to call the exact top or bottom in real-time is a fool’s game. What matters is having a plan for both outcomes and respecting risk levels.
The Macro Wildcard Nobody Wants to Talk About
Let’s address the elephant in the room: global trade policy. The tariff situation isn’t just background noise – it’s potentially the primary catalyst for this entire drawdown.
Risk assets hate uncertainty, and nothing creates uncertainty quite like the threat of widespread tariffs. We saw the exact same reaction in 2018-2019 when trade tensions escalated – Bitcoin topped out and spent the next year grinding lower.
The difference this time? Bitcoin has institutional adoption, ETFs, and nation-state buyers. The floor is much higher than it was six years ago. But that doesn’t make it immune to macro pressures.
If negotiations go well and we get clarity, risk assets could rip higher into year-end. If they drag on or escalate? Buckle up.
Final Thoughts: Stay Paranoid, Stay Disciplined
Here’s what I know after surviving multiple cycles: the market will do whatever hurts the most people. Right now, that probably means keeping everyone guessing for longer than feels comfortable.
The bulls want you to FOMO in at $95K. The bears want you to panic sell at $85K. The smartest move is often doing nothing until the market tips its hand.
Personally? I’m keeping the majority of my dry powder ready while maintaining small positions on both sides of the range. When the real move comes – and it always does – having liquidity to deploy at extreme levels is what separates the winners from everyone else.
Whatever happens, remember this: Bitcoin has survived worse. Much worse. The fact that we’re even debating $90K as potential support would have been unimaginable just a few years ago.
The game is still the game. Manage your risk, keep your emotions in check, and let the market reveal its intention. Everything else is just noise.
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