Remember when Black Friday used to mean camping outside in freezing weather just to grab a discounted TV? This year felt different. I walked past my local mall on Friday afternoon and it was packed, yet somehow calmer than the chaos I remember from a decade ago. Turns out that shift isn’t just in my head – the numbers prove 2025’s kickoff to holiday shopping was massive, record-breaking even, but the winners weren’t exactly who most people expected.
A Record-Setting Black Friday (With a Few Twists)
U.S. shoppers spent a jaw-dropping $11.8 billion online on Black Friday alone. That’s up more than 9% from last year. Average selling prices actually rose 8% year-over-year, which tells you something fascinating: people aren’t just hunting bargains anymore – they’re willing to pay a bit more when the deal still feels good.
What really caught my attention, though, is how the spending felt concentrated. Promotions started earlier than ever (some retailers kicked things off in October), and consumers responded by loading up during the biggest discount windows. The result? A monster Black Friday, followed by the analysts predict a short lull, then one final sprint right before Christmas.
“Significant uncertainty remains about the consumers’ ability to absorb these higher prices, but Santa always comes.”
– Senior retail analyst at a major investment bank
Love that line. Because honestly, after the past few years, we all needed a bit of holiday magic.
Beauty Refuses to Slow Down
If there’s one category that keeps defying gravity, it’s beauty. Even with tariffs, inflation chatter, and every other headwind you can name, middle- and higher-income shoppers are still splurging on skincare, makeup, and fragrance.
Ulta Beauty was the undisputed star of the weekend. Store checks showed lines out the door and traffic holding steady (or even growing) compared to last year. The secret? They kept promotions reasonable instead of slashing everything 50% off. Shoppers rewarded that discipline by showing up in droves.
e.l.f. Beauty, the affordable darling everyone loves to root for, also saw huge demand inside Ulta carries them prominently, so both brands fed off each other’s energy. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: when a $6 lipstick performs like a $60 one, people notice.
Perhaps the most interesting angle? Analysts are starting to talk about a “wellness halo” around beauty purchases. People are buying that new serum or facial device now because they’re already thinking about New Year’s resolutions. Smart retailers are leaning into that story hard.
Big-Box Retailers Bring the Heat
While pure-play online giants always grab headlines, this year the omnichannel heavyweights reminded everyone why physical stores still matter.
Walmart, Target, Costco, and even BJ’s Wholesale saw traffic surge. The formula was simple but brutally effective: start deals early, push curbside pickup hard, throw in a few doorbuster toys and electronics, and watch families roll in.
Target, in particular, surprised to the upside. After years of same-store sales stagnation, the bullseye brand finally had crowds that looked like the pre-pandemic days. Toys and consumer electronics were the big drivers, but groceries and essentials kept the registers ringing all day.
- Early promotions (October start dates became the new normal)
- Targeted discounts instead of blanket markdowns
- Seamless buy-online-pickup-in-store execution
- Heavy advertising around “one-stop shopping”
Add those together and you get winners.
Apparel Makes a Surprise Comeback
Raise your hand if you thought softlines (clothing, shoes, accessories) were permanently doomed after the pandemic. Yeah, me too. Yet here we are.
Gap Inc. brands – especially Old Navy and Banana Republic – posted some of the strongest year-over-year improvement in items per transaction. A viral campaign for the namesake Gap brand didn’t hurt either; suddenly hoodies with the logo were cool again.
Abercrombie & Fitch’s Hollister brand also crushed it, even while the parent company’s flagship stores lagged. Teen spending appears alive and well when the product feels fresh.
One analyst I read basically said: “Maybe it’s time to stop treating apparel like a lost cause.” Hard to argue when the data looks this good.
Electronics and Toys Round Out the List
Best Buy turned in solid traffic numbers, powered by laptops, phones, and gaming consoles. Parents I know were fighting over the last Nintendo Switch OLED bundles – some things never change.
Toys were the sleeper hit. With certain hot items already selling out online by Thursday night, Friday became the day to grab whatever was left on shelves. Target and Walmart both reported their toy aisles looked like battle zones by noon.
What This Means for the Rest of the Season
Here’s my personal take: the consumer isn’t broken, just choosier. When retailers respect their intelligence – reasonable prices, convenient fulfillment, products that feel worth it – people show up. When stores panic and slash everything to the bone, shoppers wait for even deeper cuts.
We’ve got Cyber Week ahead, then two full weeks before Christmas. If the pattern holds, we’ll see a dip this week while everyone recovers from their Black Friday hangover, followed by a mad rush December 16–23.
Retail stocks that looked dead in the water six months ago suddenly have pulse. Beauty keeps winning. Omnichannel is king. And maybe, just maybe, the soft landing everyone has been praying for is actually happening at the mall.
“The discounters were relative winners on Black Friday Weekend (and are expected to be for the entire season too).”
– Leading retail advisory group CEO
Couldn’t have said it better myself.
So keep an eye on Ulta, Target, Gap Inc., and the usual big-box suspects. The 2025 holiday season is shaping up to be better than feared – and for investors who were brave enough to buy the fear earlier this year, that could translate into some very merry gains before New Year’s Eve.
Happy shopping – and happy investing.
