Picture this: it’s the day after Thanksgiving, you’ve survived the family arguments and the third helping of pie, and you’re ready to treat yourself to a brand-new ride with one of those legendary Black Friday blowout deals. You pull into the dealership lot expecting banners screaming “$10,000 off!” and salespeople tripping over themselves to hand you the keys. Instead you’re greeted by… polite smiles and some very modest signage. Welcome to Black Friday 2025, where the only thing getting slashed is your enthusiasm.
I hate to be the bearer of bad news the week of the biggest shopping frenzy of the year, but the golden era of massive holiday car discounts appears to be firmly in the rear-view mirror. And honestly? It stings a bit, because a new car is one of the few big-ticket purchases where a great promotion used to feel like winning the lottery.
The Harsh Reality of 2025 Car Shopping
Let’s start with the numbers that matter. As of late fall 2025, the average sticker price on a new vehicle sits just above $51,000. After haggling, the typical buyer walks away paying around $49,100—a discount of barely $2,200. If you haven’t shopped for a new car since 2019, that same transaction would have saved you closer to $3,000 off a vehicle that cost $10,000 less to begin with.
Monthly payments? Brace yourself. The average new-car loan payment clocked in at $766 last month—up more than a percent from last year and only about $30 shy of the all-time peak we saw at the end of 2022. Almost one in four buyers is now signing up for 84-month loans just to keep that payment under $800. I don’t know about you, but paying for a car longer than most presidential terms feels… exhausting.
Why Aren’t Dealers Slashing Prices Anymore?
The short answer: they don’t have to. After years of pandemic shortages when many of us were paying sticker or even above, the industry got a taste of record profit margins and discovered buyers would stomach almost anything. Now inventory has finally recovered—dealers have cars sitting on lots again—but the aggressive incentives of the pre-2020 era haven’t returned. Why offer $8,000 off when people are still walking in the door?
Interest rates aren’t helping either. The average rate on a five-year new-car loan is hovering around 7.1%. Three years ago you could still find qualified buyers under 5%. That two-point swing on a $45,000 loan adds hundreds of dollars a year in interest. Ouch.
“The inventory crisis is over, but the discount party never really started again. Buyers who remember the good old days are in for a reality check.”
– Senior automotive consumer analyst
Where You Can Still Find a Decent Deal (If You’re Clever)
All hope is not lost—just don’t expect the dealership to roll out the red carpet. The smartest money right now is hunting for vehicles that have been gathering dust on the lot for 90 days or more. Dealers hate paying floor-plan interest on slow movers, so those cars suddenly become negotiable.
- Look for 2025 models that arrived early and haven’t sold—especially larger SUVs or specialty trims.
- Check the window sticker for the “date in service” or ask the salesperson how long it’s been there (they’ll know).
- Combine an aging unit with whatever factory rebate exists and you might stack $4,000–$7,000 off in certain cases.
- End-of-year clearance on outgoing 2025 models will ramp up in December, but January and February are historically even better.
Another angle? Trade-ins. If you’re driving a relatively late-model paid-off vehicle in good shape, dealers are hungry for clean used inventory right now. That equity can knock thousands off your new purchase—far more useful than waiting for a mythical Black Friday miracle.
The Monthly Payment Trap You Must Avoid
Dealers love to ask, “What payment are you comfortable with?” and then stretch the term until the number fits. Resist the urge. An eight-year loan might drop your payment by $150 a month, but you’ll pay thousands more in interest and be upside-down for years.
Quick math: $40,000 financed at 7% for 48 months = about $9,600 in interest. Stretch it to 84 months and you’re looking at nearly $17,000 in interest. That extra three-plus years literally costs another decent used car.
| Loan Term | Monthly (approx) | Total Interest ($40k @ 7%) |
| 48 months | $958 | $9,600 |
| 60 months | $792 | $12,100 |
| 72 months | $684 | $14,700 |
| 84 months | $606 | $17,300 |
See the problem? Shorter terms hurt upfront but save a fortune long-term. If the payment feels impossible at 60 months or less, the honest answer might be that the car is simply out of budget right now.
Electric Vehicles: A Wild Card Worth Mentioning
One bright spot—sort of—is the EV segment. With federal tax credits phasing and some brands overproducing, certain electric models are seeing aggressive leasing offers and discounted purchases before year-end. If you’ve been on the fence about going electric, the next six weeks might actually deliver legitimate Black Friday-level savings in that niche. Just don’t expect the same across gas or hybrid lineups.
Should You Buy Now or Wait?
Here’s my take after watching these cycles for years: if you need a vehicle before spring, shop smart over the next 30–45 days, focus on slow-moving inventory, and be ready to walk away. The absolute rock-bottom prices usually hit January through March when dealers are desperate to clear last year’s metal and hit Q1 goals.
But if your current car is still kicking and you’re simply hunting for a bargain because it’s “deal season,” you might be better off waiting. The psychology of Black Friday makes us feel like we’re missing out if we don’t buy, yet the data says the real savings often come after the holidays are ancient history.
Sometimes the best deal is the one you don’t rush into just because the calendar says it’s November.
Bottom line? Temper your expectations this Black Friday. The lots are full again, but the era of jaw-dropping holiday discounts seems to have ended. Arm yourself with realistic numbers, target the cars dealers are motivated to move, keep the loan term sane, and you can still drive away without feeling like you overpaid—even if it doesn’t feel quite like the victory lap of years past.
Happy (strategic) hunting.
