BRICS Unity Shifts: Decoding Global Alliances

Have you ever watched a chess game where one move changes the entire board? That’s what happened when the BRICS nations—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—came together in Rio de Janeiro for their latest summit. Their joint declaration didn’t just address trade or economics; it dropped a subtle bombshell by condemning a terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, on April 22, 2025. At first glance, it seems like a standard diplomatic gesture, but dig deeper, and you’ll find a web of geopolitical maneuvering that exposes tensions, alliances, and a surprising shift in China’s strategy. Let’s unpack this global chess match.

Why the BRICS Declaration Matters

The Rio Declaration wasn’t just another diplomatic document—it was a statement of unity, or at least an attempt at one. Paragraph 34 stood out: “We condemn in the strongest terms the terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir on 22 April 2025.” For India, this was a diplomatic win, especially after a frustrating experience at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) just weeks earlier. For China, however, this moment revealed a rare misstep in its carefully crafted global image. To understand why this matters, we need to explore the dynamics at play.

The Pahalgam Attack: A Flashpoint

The Pahalgam attack wasn’t just a tragedy; it became a litmus test for global alliances. On that April day, lives were lost, and India demanded international condemnation. Most nations complied, but the SCO—a group meant to foster security cooperation—stayed silent. Why? Because China, as the chair of the SCO’s recent defense ministers’ meeting, refused to include the attack in their joint statement. India’s defense minister walked away, refusing to sign a document that ignored such a critical issue.

Diplomacy often reveals more in what’s left unsaid than what’s declared.

– International relations analyst

This wasn’t a simple oversight. The SCO’s silence felt like a deliberate snub to India, and many pointed fingers at China. Was Beijing trying to shield its ally Pakistan, often linked to regional tensions? Or was it a calculated move to undermine India’s growing influence? Whatever the reason, it set the stage for a dramatic contrast at the BRICS summit.

China’s SCO Play: A Miscalculation?

China’s role as SCO chair gave it significant leverage. It could shape the agenda, draft statements, and steer discussions. By omitting Pahalgam from the SCO’s joint statement, Beijing sent a message—but it wasn’t the one they expected. Instead of isolating India, it exposed China’s willingness to politicize a platform meant for cooperation. The move backfired, painting Beijing as a less-than-neutral player.

• Supporting Pakistan: China’s refusal to condemn the attack aligned with its long-standing alliance with Islamabad.
• Weakening India: By sidelining India’s concerns, China aimed to portray it as the SCO’s “weak link.”
• Influencing Russia: The move may have targeted Russia’s pro-China factions, pushing for deeper alignment.

But here’s where it gets messy. Just weeks later, China found itself in a bind at the BRICS summit. Brazil, the host, wasn’t about to let the declaration ignore Pahalgam—especially after rolling out the red carpet for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during a state visit. For China, opposing the condemnation would’ve meant derailing the entire summit. They had no choice but to agree.

Brazil’s Balancing Act

Brazil’s President Lula da Silva played his cards masterfully. Hosting Modi wasn’t just about bilateral ties; it was a signal to the world that Brazil could balance its relationships with both India and China. By ensuring Pahalgam’s inclusion in the Rio Declaration, Lula avoided alienating India while keeping the summit on track. It’s no coincidence that China’s President Xi Jinping skipped the event, citing “scheduling conflicts.” Was it really about a busy calendar, or did Xi want to avoid sharing the spotlight with Modi?

In my view, Xi’s absence was strategic. Agreeing to condemn Pahalgam after stonewalling at the SCO would’ve looked like a flip-flop. By sending his prime minister instead, Xi saved face while still signing off on the declaration. It’s a classic move in diplomacy—let someone else take the heat.

What This Means for BRICS

The BRICS summit wasn’t just about terrorism; it was a test of the group’s cohesion. With China and India as founding members, their rivalry often threatens to derail progress. Yet, the Rio Declaration showed that BRICS can still function, even when tensions simmer. Here’s how the summit reshaped perceptions:

For India, the summit was a triumph. It not only secured condemnation but also highlighted China’s inconsistent stance. For China, it was a rare stumble. By politicizing the SCO, Beijing inadvertently gave India a platform to call out its tactics. And for Brazil, it was a chance to shine as a mediator.

The Bigger Picture: Trust and Alliances

Global alliances are like relationships—you need trust to make them work. China’s SCO maneuver eroded that trust, not just with India but potentially with other members like Russia. If Beijing is seen as using multilateral platforms for its own gain, it risks alienating partners. Meanwhile, India’s steadfast push for accountability strengthens its image as a reliable player.

Trust is the currency of diplomacy. Once spent, it’s hard to earn back.

– Geopolitical strategist

Perhaps the most intriguing aspect is how this saga reflects the broader struggle for influence. BRICS was meant to counter Western dominance, but internal rivalries like this show it’s not a monolith. Each nation has its own agenda, and navigating those differences requires finesse.

Lessons for the Future

So, what can we take away from this diplomatic drama? First, consistency matters. China’s flip-flop from SCO to BRICS didn’t go unnoticed, and it’ll likely face scrutiny in future summits. Second, hosting matters. Brazil’s ability to steer the narrative shows how much influence a host nation wields. Finally, unity is fragile. BRICS may project strength, but cracks like these remind us it’s a work in progress.

1. Stay Consistent: Nations must align their actions across platforms to avoid looking hypocritical.
2. Leverage Hosting: Summit hosts can shape outcomes by setting the tone and agenda.
3. Build Trust: Long-term alliances depend on mutual respect and accountability.

In my experience, watching global politics is like following a soap opera—full of twists, betrayals, and unexpected alliances. The BRICS summit was no exception. It showed that even the most powerful nations can misstep, and those missteps ripple far beyond the summit room.

Final Thoughts

The BRICS summit in Rio wasn’t just about condemning terrorism; it was a window into the delicate dance of global alliances. China’s SCO tactics exposed its priorities, while India’s persistence paid off. Brazil, meanwhile, proved it could play referee. As these nations navigate their roles, one thing’s clear: the world is watching, and every move counts. What’s next for BRICS? Only time will tell, but I’d bet on more surprises.

Have you followed the BRICS saga? What do you think about China’s strategy? Drop your thoughts below—I’d love to hear your take on this geopolitical chess game.