Have you ever watched a coin bleed for months, hit every support on the way down, and still somehow feel like something big is brewing underneath? That’s exactly where I find myself with Cardano right now.
While the rest of the market was busy pumping memes and Solana ecosystem tokens, ADA quietly dropped almost 60% from its 2025 highs and settled into what looks suspiciously like the final stages of a gigantic falling wedge. And with the Midnight network launch creeping closer every day, the stars might actually be aligning for Cardano holders who’ve been patiently (or impatiently) waiting for a reversal.
A Textbook Bullish Setup Hiding in Plain Sight
Let me paint the picture for you.
On the daily chart, Cardano has been carving lower highs and lower lows since early this year. Classic downtrend, right? Except those highs and lows are getting tighter and tighter, forming two converging trendlines that are now only a few percentage points away from touching. That, my friends, is the very definition of a falling wedge—one of the most reliable reversal patterns in technical analysis.
I’ve traded enough wedges in my life to know that when price is squeezing into the apex like this, something has to give. Either we break down hard (and invalidate the pattern), or we get the classic breakout to the upside that often catches everyone flat-footed.
The Oscillators Are Screaming “Oversold”
It’s not just the wedge that has my attention. The indicators are starting to flash green in a way we haven’t seen in months.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) bottomed at 23 earlier this month—an extreme oversold reading we rarely see outside of capitulation events. Since then it has climbed back above 40 and is curling higher. More importantly, price made a lower low while RSI printed a higher low. That’s textbook bullish divergence, and it usually shows up right before reversals.
The Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO)—basically MACD’s cooler cousin—just formed a bullish crossover, and the histogram is about to flip positive for the first time since the summer. When you combine that with the wedge compression, it feels like the rubber band is stretched about as far as it can go.
In my experience, when you get wedge compression + bullish divergence + an upcoming catalyst, you usually don’t have to wait very long for fireworks.
First Realistic Target? $0.51
If Cardano does manage to break the upper trendline of the wedge (currently around $0.46–$0.47), the measured move takes us straight to roughly $0.51—exactly the June swing low that has acted as resistance all year.
Clear that level with conviction and the next stop is probably the $0.60 zone, which would represent a 40%+ move from current prices. Not life-changing in this market, but definitely enough to wake up the sleeping giant narrative that Cardano holders love so much.
Of course, nothing is guaranteed. A decisive drop below $0.3895 would invalidate the entire setup and likely send us hunting for the next major support around $0.30. But right now the risk/reward feels heavily skewed to the upside.
Midnight: The Catalyst Everyone Is Underestimating
Technical patterns are nice, but in crypto we all know catalysts are what actually move price. And Cardano is about to drop what could be its biggest catalyst since the Alonzo hard fork.
Midnight is a zero-knowledge proof sidechain designed from the ground up for data protection and privacy-preserving smart contracts. Think of it as Cardano finally getting its own version of what Polygon is to Ethereum or Arbitrum is to… well, Ethereum again. But with a heavy focus on privacy—an area where most layer-1 chains still fall short.
Charles Hoskinson has been unusually vocal about Midnight lately, repeatedly calling it the solution to Cardano’s biggest adoption hurdles: lack of developer activity, low TVL relative to competitors, and enterprise hesitation due to transparency concerns.
- Zero-knowledge smart contracts that actually protect sensitive data
- Rust and TypeScript support to attract developers from other ecosystems
- Native bridging to the main Cardano chain
- Glacier Drop airdrop rewarding existing ADA stakers with NIGHT tokens
That last point is particularly interesting. The Glacier airdrop means every long-term ADA holder gets a free bag of the new token. We’ve seen what airdrop anticipation can do—look at Arbitrum, Optimism, or even Celestia last year. Speculative fervor tends to spill over to the main chain token as well.
Perhaps the most underrated aspect is the narrative shift. For years critics have hammered Cardano for being “too academic,” “too slow,” “no DeFi.” Midnight gives the ecosystem a shiny new toy that directly addresses those criticisms while opening doors to regulated finance, healthcare records, identity solutions—basically all the enterprise use cases that want blockchain benefits without broadcasting everything on a public ledger.
The Elephant in the Room: Cannibalization Risk
Let me be honest—there is a legitimate bear case here.
What happens six months after Midnight launches if developers decide they prefer building on the shiny new privacy chain instead of the original Cardano mainnet? We’ve seen this movie before with Ethereum and its layer-2s. Activity migrates, fees collapse on L1, and the base token suffers.
But I actually think Cardano is better positioned than most to avoid that fate. The architecture is designed for tight interoperability from day one, and the economic model ties the two chains together more closely than Ethereum and its rollups. Plus, Midnight still needs Cardano for settlement and security. It’s less “competitor” and more “specialized teammate.”
Time will tell, of course. But short-term? The hype cycle around a major launch almost always benefits the native token first.
Putting It All Together
So here’s where I land:
Cardano is showing one of the cleanest bullish reversal setups I’ve seen all year on the daily timeframe. The wedge is maturing, oscillators are turning, volume is starting to pick up on the bounces, and we have a major catalyst just around the corner.
Am I saying ADA is about to 10x tomorrow? Of course not. But a move back to $0.60–$0.70 in the coming weeks feels very much on the table, especially if Bitcoin remains constructive and risk appetite stays healthy.
For the first time in a long time, being long Cardano actually feels like the higher-probability play. And if Midnight delivers even half of what’s being promised, we might finally see the ecosystem narrative flip from “slow and steady to something a lot more exciting.
Sometimes the best opportunities are the ones everyone else has written off. Cardano might just be setting up for exactly that kind of move.
See you at $0.51.
