Have you ever watched a stock you really like do everything right on the fundamentals side – nailing new licenses, dropping cool products, signing big partnerships – only to see the chart flash a giant red warning sign? That’s exactly where we are with Circle right now, and honestly, it’s fascinating.
The company behind the second-largest stablecoin in the world just keeps stacking wins, but the price action is starting to look like that friend who says they’re fine while clearly not being fine. Let’s unpack what’s happening, why it matters, and whether this actually changes the longer-term picture.
The Technical Warning Nobody Saw Coming
Ali Martinez – yeah, the same guy who called the recent bottom almost to the day – just pointed out that the TD Sequential indicator on Circle’s daily chart has flipped to a sell signal. If you’ve followed his work before, you know these calls carry weight.
For the uninitiated, the TD Sequential is one of those old-school technical tools that somehow keeps working in crypto-era markets. It basically counts to nine (or thirteen) and looks for exhaustion patterns. When it flashes red after a solid run-up, smart money tends to listen.
And Circle had been on a tear. From the lows earlier this year to touching fresh highs, the stock was finally rewarding patient holders. Then boom – sell signal right as most retail traders were probably getting comfortable.
“The same indicator that identified the local bottom has now presented a sell signal on the daily chart.”
– Market analyst tracking Circle’s price action
What the Chart Is Actually Saying Right Now
As I write this, shares are bouncing around the $88-90 range after closing Tuesday up almost 6%. That’s the tricky part – the price hasn’t collapsed yet. These signals can sometimes mark the exact top, but more often they warn of coming weakness over the next few days to weeks.
Year-to-date performance? Pretty much flat after giving back all the early 2025 gains. Classic crypto-related stock behavior – massive volatility with the underlying asset class, even when the business itself is executing flawlessly.
- Early 2025: Stock rockets on stablecoin narrative strength
- Mid-year: Crypto summer doldrums drag everything lower
- Fall rally: Regulatory wins + product launches spark hope
- Now: Technical exhaustion meets macro uncertainty
Sound familiar? It’s basically every crypto-adjacent name since 2021.
The UAE License – Actually a Really Big Deal
While traders obsess over candlestick patterns, Circle’s business development team has been quietly building what might be one of the most important regulatory footholds in the Middle East.
The Financial Services Permission from Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM) isn’t just another checkbox. It’s full authorization to operate as a money services business in one of the most crypto-friendly jurisdictions on earth. Think Dubai but with even better regulatory clarity.
Jeremy Allaire didn’t hold back in his statement:
“We are honored to work with the FSRA in ADGM. Their framework sets a high bar for transparency, risk management, and consumer protection.”
– Jeremy Allaire, Circle CEO
This matters because the UAE is aggressively positioning itself as the Switzerland of the Middle East for digital assets. Having USDC officially recognized and able to facilitate regulated payments there opens doors that most stablecoin issuers can only dream about.
USDCx and the Privacy Push
Perhaps the most under-discussed announcement recently was the partnership with Aleo to launch USDCx – essentially a privacy-enhanced version of USDC that still maintains regulatory compliance.
In a world where Tether gets constant heat for transparency issues while offering perfect privacy (read: opacity), Circle is trying to thread the needle – give institutions the privacy they increasingly demand without sacrificing the compliance that makes them comfortable holding billions in stablecoins.
Use cases they’re targeting tell you everything:
- Global payroll for multinational companies
- Humanitarian aid distribution (huge in conflict zones)
- Configurable compliance for DeFi protocols
- Peer-to-peer payments that actually protect privacy
This isn’t just another wrapped token. This feels like Circle trying to build the enterprise-grade privacy layer that the industry has been missing.
Reducing Coinbase Dependence – The Bybit Partnership
One of the biggest lingering concerns with Circle has been revenue concentration. Yes, they’re diversified beyond just interest on reserves now, but a huge chunk of USDC distribution and trading volume still flows through Coinbase thanks to their revenue-share agreement.
The new partnership with Bybit is clearly designed to chip away at that dependence. More liquidity venues, more on/off ramps, more places where USDC is the default stablecoin – all of this strengthens Circle’s moat while reducing single-point-of-failure risk.
Analysts loved it. Baird reiterated their outperform rating specifically citing this partnership. Sometimes the market ignores good news, but Wall Street definitely noticed.
The Competition Never Sleeps
Let’s be real – Tether still owns something like 70% of the stablecoin market. USDC has been stuck in the 20-25% range for years now. The growth is there (circulation pushing $74 billion recently), but closing that gap requires constant execution.
Every new partnership, every regulatory win, every product launch is Circle throwing haymakers in a fight they’re still losing on market share. But here’s the thing – they’re clearly winning on the institutional adoption front, which is ultimately what matters for long-term survival.
Think about it: when a major bank or payment processor wants to hold stablecoins, who are they calling? Not the offshore issuer with questionable reserves. They’re calling Circle.
So… Buy the Dip or Respect the Signal?
Here’s where it gets interesting. I’ve been through enough of these technical sell signals in crypto stocks to know they usually mean something. Sometimes it’s a 10-15% pullback. Sometimes it’s the start of something uglier.
But I’ve also learned that when fundamentals are this strong – regulatory expansion into major financial centers, new product launches solving real problems, diversifying away from single partners – these pullbacks often become the best buying opportunities.
The macro environment matters too. We’re heading into what could be a pretty data-heavy few weeks with inflation numbers, Fed speeches, and all the usual December weirdness. Crypto stocks hate uncertainty, even when their businesses are printing money.
My take? The sell signal is real and should be respected on a trading timeframe. If you’re positioned long from lower levels, considering taking some profits here wouldn’t be crazy. But if you’re building a multi-year position in the company actually trying to bring stablecoins into the regulated financial system?
This feels a lot more like noise than signal.
The UAE license alone probably adds tens if not hundreds of millions in future revenue potential. The privacy coin with Aleo could be massive if institutions bite. The Bybit partnership chips away at the biggest risk in the investment thesis.
Technical analysis catches turning points. Fundamentals determine destinations.
Right now, Circle’s fundamentals look stronger than they’ve been in years. The chart might give us a scare over the next few weeks, but the business keeps moving forward. In this space, that’s usually worth betting on.
