Have you ever watched an entire market hold its breath?
That’s exactly what’s happening right now. Bitcoin is flirting with $93,000, privacy coins are suddenly waking up from a multi-year nap, and every leveraged trader on the planet is glued to their screens waiting for Jerome Powell to open his mouth this afternoon. One sentence – just one dovish or hawkish inflection – could send billions flying in either direction.
I’ve been through more than a dozen Fed days in crypto, and I can tell you this one feels different. The anticipation is thicker than usual. Maybe it’s because we’re already at all-time-high territory in December, or maybe it’s because the last two rate cuts produced violent whipsaws. Whatever the reason, the market is primed.
A Quiet Rally That Suddenly Isn’t Quiet Anymore
For weeks the price action felt sleepy – sideways consolidation, low volatility, everyone complaining about “chop.” Then, almost overnight, the board turned bright green.
As of Wednesday morning December 10, 2025, the total crypto market cap has climbed back above $3.2 trillion – a solid 3% jump in 24 hours. Liquidations spiked to $429 million, open interest is up another 3% to $133 billion, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index finally crawled out of “Extreme Fear” (22 → 26). Not greed yet, but at least we’re not panicking.
Here’s what actually caught my eye: the leaders aren’t the usual suspects.
Privacy Coins Steal the Show
Zcash (+11% to ~$440), Monero (+5.4% to ~$390), and even Avalanche (up 6.2% to ~$114) are dramatically outperforming Bitcoin and Ethereum today. That’s not normal for a Fed-driven macro move.
My take? Rotation. While everyone was obsessed with BTC spot ETF flows and ETH staking yields, smart money quietly started accumulating coins that actually offer financial privacy – especially now that regulators worldwide are sharpening their knives for 2026.
“When the Fed pivots to easy money, the first assets to move are the ones with the most narrative torque. Right now that torque belongs to privacy.”
– On-chain analyst known for calling the 2023 Zcash breakout
Bitcoin’s Technical Picture Right Before the Decision
Let’s talk levels, because they matter more today than any time this year.
- Current price: $92,689 (+3.16%)
- Key resistance overhead: $94,500 (all-time high zone)
- Immediate support: $90,000 psychological + 50-hour EMA
- Deeper support if we get a hawkish surprise: $87,000 (Cathie Wood’s line in the sand)
The hourly chart is printing higher lows since yesterday’s Asia session, and the daily RSI sits at a perfectly neutral 51 – plenty of room to run in either direction. Translation: pure coin flip until Powell speaks at 2:00 p.m. ET.
What History Says About Fed Days
CryptoQuant published a great thread this morning looking at the last four rate cuts:
- September 2024 cut → Bitcoin ran +8% in 48 hours, then dumped almost $2,000 in a straight line.
- October follow-up cut → Similar pattern: quick pump, sharp rug.
- Both times the market front-ran the cut and then “sold the news.”
Classic buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact behavior. The million-dollar question is whether this time really is different now that we’re already at new all-time highs and ETF demand appears structural rather than speculative.
The Bulls Have Some Heavy Hitters in Their Corner
Tom Lee of Fundstrat came out swinging again yesterday, repeating his $150,000 Bitcoin target for 2025 and saying today’s cut should trigger a “relief rally” toward $100K–$110K by New Year’s Eve.
CoinDCX Research is even more aggressive, floating a base case of $111,000 and an optimistic case of $130K–$140K if spot ETF inflows re-accelerate after the holidays.
Even the perpetual futures market is pricing in upside: long liquidations would trigger above $94,800 (about $120 million clustered there), which could fuel a violent short squeeze if we break the ATH.
But the Bears Aren’t Dead Yet
Cathie Wood, who has been unusually quiet lately, reminded everyone yesterday that Bitcoin must hold $87,000 on any post-Fed pullback or we risk a fast move toward the mid-$70Ks. She’s watching inflation expectations and the 2026 dot-plot like a hawk.
On-chain exchange reserves are still elevated compared to October levels, meaning plenty of paper hands haven’t sold yet. One whiff of “we’re pausing in January” from Powell and those coins hit the market instantly.
What I’m Watching at 2:00 p.m. ET Today
- The actual rate decision (99% priced as 25 bp cut)
- The 2026 dot plot – how many cuts are they still projecting?
- Powell’s language around “inflation progress” vs “labor market deterioration”
- Any mention of balance-sheet runoff pace (QT slowing = rocket fuel)
If Powell sounds even mildly dovish, I expect Bitcoin to test $95,000 before New York close. If he pushes back and says “data-dependent” ten times, $87,000 comes into play fast.
Look, nobody has a crystal ball – least of all me after a decade of getting rekt on Fed days. But the setup is fascinating: record highs, privacy coins ripping, leveraged traders maxed out, and the most important of all – actual macro liquidity about to shift.
Whatever happens this afternoon, volatility is coming. Strap in, keep your position sizes reasonable, and maybe keep some dry powder on the sidelines.
Because when the Fed finally exhales, crypto tends to take the deepest breath of all.
