Remember when Dogecoin was the darling of the internet, pumping on every Elon tweet and making ordinary people feel like geniuses overnight? Yeah, those days feel like ancient history right now.
Today, as I write this on December 5 2025, DOGE is bleeding out again, down another 6% while I sip my morning coffee, and the chart looks uglier than ever. Honestly, it hurts a little to watch – I’ve been in this meme coin since the 2021 madness – but facts are facts: the downtrend is still fully in control and the path of least resistance remains south.
The Painful Truth: Dogecoin Is Still in a Textbook Bear Market
Let’s not sugar-coat it. Since the rejection at roughly $0.48 earlier this year (and the failed retest of $0.21–$0.22), Dogecoin has done nothing but print lower highs and lower lows. That’s the very definition of a downtrend, and anyone telling you otherwise is coping hard.
What makes this move particularly nasty is how clean the structure has stayed. No messy sideways chop, no fake breakouts that trap bulls for weeks – just relentless distribution inside a perfectly drawn descending channel. Every rally gets sold, every bounce dies exactly at the channel midline or upper border. Brutal efficiency.
The Descending Channel That Refuses to Break
If you pull up the 4-hour or daily chart, you can’t miss it: a fat red channel that has contained price action since mid-2025 summer. We’ve touched the upper border at least five times and the lower border four times. Each touch has been respected with almost mechanical precision.
Right now we’re pressing against the lower boundary again, around $0.135–$0.138. The previous two tests of this zone produced weak bounces that failed to even reclaim the volume point of control. That tells me buyers are exhausted or simply not interested at current levels.
- May bounce → rejected at $0.18
- June bounce → rejected at $0.16
- October bounce → rejected at $0.17
- November bounce → rejected at $0.155
- Current bounce → struggling under $0.145
See the pattern? Each recovery is shorter and weaker than the last. Classic bear market behavior.
Volume Tells the Real Story
One thing I always drill into people: price can lie, but volume rarely does. And the volume profile on Dogecoin right now is screaming distribution.
Every time price approaches the channel resistance, we see a spike in selling volume. Every time we tag the $0.13–$0.14 support zone, buying volume dries up almost completely. The most recent 48-hour bounce? Barely any pickup in real volume. That’s not how real bottoms look.
“Weak volume on an oversold bounce is the market’s way of saying ‘we’re not done going down yet.’”
– Something every painful lesson in my trading journal taught me
The Liquidity Magnet Below $0.08
Here’s the part that keeps me up at night. The yearly low sits at approximately $0.079–$0.08 and it has never been retested after the initial sweep earlier this year. In market structure terms, that’s untapped liquidity – a giant magnet for price.
Below that level you have:
- Thousands of stop-loss orders from leveraged longs who bought the “Elon will pump it again” narrative
- Equal lows from March 2025 that act as a vacuum
- A massive volume gap on the CVP down to $0.05 region
Experienced traders know how this usually ends: price will often make one final brutal leg down to collect that liquidity before any meaningful reversal can begin. I’m not saying it’s guaranteed, but the probability feels uncomfortably high right now.
What Would Actually Change the Picture?
Look, I’d love to be wrong. I still hold a bag of DOGE from much lower prices and I’m not exactly cheering for pain. So let’s be fair and outline exactly what bulls need to do to invalidate this bearish scenario.
- Reclaim and close above the value area low around $0.175–$0.18 on convincing volume
- Break the descending channel to the upside with a daily close above $0.20
- Flip the $0.22–$0.24 zone from resistance into support
- Show expanding volume on up instead of the current shrinking bounces
Until at least the first two conditions are met, I’m sorry, but calling a bottom is just hope trading.
Bigger Picture: Meme Coins vs Bitcoin Dominance
Zoom out and the context gets even uglier. Bitcoin dominance is pushing toward 60% again while altcoins bleed. Historically, when BTC dominance rises sharply, meme coins get absolutely crushed – and Dogecoin, despite its unique brand, is still very much an altcoin at heart.
We’ve seen this movie before in 2022. DOGE went from $0.70 to $0.049 while everyone screamed “this time is different because Elon.” Spoiler: it wasn’t.
So… Should You Sell, Hold, or Buy the Dip?
Personal take? If you’re sitting on profits from the 2021 or early 2025 runs, I’d be trimming into strength and waiting for that final capitulation flush. If you’re underwater and can stomach more pain, holding through a sweep of $0.08 might actually be the lower-risk play – ironically – because that’s where real panic tends to peak.
Buying here “because it’s oversold” feels like catching a falling knife with roller skates on. I’ve done it before. It sucks.
My base case for the next 2-6 weeks: one more leg down to $0.08–$0.10 zone, possible undercut to $0.07 to shake out weak hands, then the first higher low of a new trend. But that’s just one scenario among many – markets love proving people wrong.
Whatever happens, stay safe out of leverage, keep position sizes sane, and remember: surviving crypto winters is how you get to enjoy the next spring. Dogecoin has died a thousand times and come back stronger almost every single time.
The question is whether we’re close to that moment… or still have one more cold, dark chapter to endure.
I guess we’ll find out soon enough.
