Have you ever watched a rocket try to punch through the atmosphere only to stall right at the edge? That’s pretty much Ethereum this week.
The second-largest cryptocurrency pushed hard toward a stubborn overhead resistance, got everyone excited for a minute, then slid right back down. As I write this, ETH is nursing a 26% loss for November alone – a month that started with so much promise after the post-election euphoria.
Yet something fascinating is happening beneath the surface. The big players – the so-called whales – aren’t panicking. They’re doing the opposite.
The November Bloodbath in Context
Let’s be brutally honest: November has been rough for Ethereum holders. From the local highs around $3,500 earlier in the month, we’ve watched the price bleed lower almost daily. At the time of writing, ETH is hovering just above $3,000 – a level that looked like a distant dream only a few months ago, but now feels like a psychological floor everyone is terrified to test.
It’s not just retail traders feeling the pain. The broader altcoin market has taken a beating too, with many projects down 40-60% from their November peaks. In that context, “only” losing 26% almost feels like outperformance.
Almost.
What Actually Happened at Resistance?
The rejection was textbook. ETH rallied from roughly $2,700 toward the $3,400 region – an area that’s acted as serious resistance multiple times this year. Volume looked decent on the way up, ETF inflows were positive, and sentiment indicators were flashing green.
Then boom – offers stacked up like bricks. The price kissed the upper boundary of its multi-month range and immediately got slapped back down. We saw a classic bart pattern on the daily chart: a sharp spike up followed by an even sharper drop, leaving a long upper wick that screams distribution.
I’ve traded enough cycles to know that feeling when the market teases you with breakout candles only to fake you out. It hurts. But it’s also part of what makes crypto so addictive.
Whales vs Retail: A Tale of Two Strategies
Here’s where things get really interesting.
While most retail traders have been trimming positions or panic-selling the dip, large holders have been doing something completely different. On-chain data shows wallets holding 1,000+ ETH have increased their balances significantly throughout November.
We’re talking about millions of dollars flowing into these mega-wallets even as price dropped. That’s not fear – that’s confidence.
- Wallets with 10,000+ ETH added over 400,000 tokens this month
- Mid-size whales (1,000–10,000 ETH) accumulated another 300,000+
- Meanwhile, smaller holders under 100 ETH reduced positions by roughly 15%
This divergence rarely ends well for the smaller fish. When whales accumulate during drawdowns while retail capitulates, it’s usually a sign that distribution is occurring at higher levels and accumulation at lower ones. Classic smart money behavior.
In bull markets, whales buy the fear that retail sells. We’re seeing that playbook in real time right now.
– Anonymous on-chain analyst
The Fusaka Upgrade: Real Catalyst or Just Hype?
Everyone is talking about the upcoming Fusaka upgrade scheduled for December 3rd, and for good reason.
Many traders still have PTSD (the good kind) from the Pectra upgrade earlier this year, which kicked off a 50% rally almost immediately after activation. The hopium is strong that Fusaka could deliver similar fireworks.
But let’s temper expectations for a second.
While Fusaka brings meaningful improvements – particularly around scalability and gas efficiency – the market isn’t May anymore. Bitcoin dominance is climbing, macro liquidity conditions are shifting, and we’ve already priced in a lot of good news this cycle.
Upgrades can act as catalysts, but they’re rarely the sole driver of massive moves anymore. The 2022-2023 bear market taught us that lesson the hard way.
Technical Picture: Where Are We Really?
Let’s look at the charts without the emotional baggage.
The monthly timeframe shows ETH still trading within a massive multi-year range. We have clear support around $2,200–$2,500 (former all-time highs) and resistance up near $4,000–$4,200. Until we decisively break and hold above that upper boundary, the range-play strategy remains valid.
Shorter timeframes are messier. The daily chart shows a series of lower highs since the March peak, but we’re also holding above key moving averages. The 200-day EMA sits around $2,800 and has acted as dynamic support multiple times.
MACD is trying to curl higher, RSI is bouncing from oversold territory, and we’re seeing some bullish divergence on lower timeframes. Not screaming bull market, but definitely not dead either.
ETF Flows: The Gift That Keeps Giving?
One undeniably bullish factor has been the consistent inflows into spot Ethereum ETFs. Even during this November drawdown, we’ve seen weeks with hundreds of millions in net inflows.
This creates a fascinating dynamic: traditional finance institutions are buying ETH through regulated products while crypto-native traders panic-sell on exchanges. It’s like two completely different markets operating in parallel.
Over time, this kind of structural buying tends to win. We saw it with Bitcoin last year – consistent ETF demand eventually overwhelmed selling pressure and propelled prices higher.
What Would Actually Break This Range?
If I had to bet on triggers for a legitimate breakout, here’s what I’m watching:
- Sustained volume above $25-30 billion daily (we’re currently well below that)
- Bitcoin dominance rolling over below 55%
- Successful Fusaka upgrade with positive developer sentiment
- ETH/BTC pair breaking its multi-year downtrend
- Clear higher highs and higher lows on weekly timeframes
Until several of these align, I remain cautiously optimistic but not married to any outcome. The market has humbled better traders than me with fakeouts.
Final Thoughts: Patience or FOMO?
Here’s what I keep coming back to: Ethereum has survived worse. Much worse.
We’ve endured the DAO hack, multiple 90%+ drawdowns, the ICO bust, DeFi summer mania, the NFT bubble and crash, the Terra collapse, FTX implosion, and countless “Ethereum killer” narratives that went exactly nowhere.
Through all of it, the network kept building. Developers kept shipping. Users kept coming.
Right now, we’re in an uncomfortable middle ground – not cheap enough to be obvious value, not expensive enough to justify euphoric buying. These are the periods that separate long-term winners from everyone else.
The whales seem to understand this. Retail is learning it the hard way.
Whether Fusaka delivers the spark or we need another catalyst entirely, the setup feels more like accumulation than distribution to me. But only time will tell.
For now, I’m watching that overhead resistance like a hawk. Because when (not if) Ethereum finally clears it with conviction, the move could be explosive.
Until then? Stay patient, stay solvent, and maybe zoom out once in a while. This game was never meant to be easy.
