I still remember the exact moment in March 2024 when Ethereum finally punched above $4,000 again. The feeling was electric – like the entire market had turned a corner. Fast forward nine months and here we are on December 1, 2025, staring at $2,813 on the screen while the daily candle bleeds red. Funny how fast sentiment flips, right?
The question everyone in my DMs keeps asking is brutally simple: is this dip just another shake-out before the next leg up, or are we about to retest levels most of us swore we’d never see again? Let’s dig in, because the charts are actually saying a lot more than the price ticker lets on.
The Big Picture: Ethereum Is Still in a Downtrend (For Now)
Zoom out to the weekly chart and the story is pretty clear. Ever since the all-time high around $4,878 in late 2021 (yeah, that long ago), Ethereum has been tracing lower highs and lower lows inside a massive descending channel. The 2024-2025 rally managed to tag the upper boundary near $4,100 earlier this year, but rejection was swift and violent.
Right now price is rejecting the underside of a smaller, steeper trendline that has capped every relief rally since mid-October. Touch it, get slapped – that’s been the pattern for weeks. Until we see a weekly close above that line (currently around $3,350 and falling), the path of least resistance remains lower.
The Support Zone Everyone Is Watching
Drop down to the 12-hour or daily timeframe and things get interesting. ETH is currently sitting right on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement of the entire move from the June 2022 bottom (~$880) to the 2025 high (~$4,100). Historically, the 0.786 level is where bull markets go to die… or where the smartest money starts accumulating before the next explosion.
Below that? The next major horizontal support cluster sits between $2,400 and $2,600 – an area that held multiple times in 2022 and again in early 2024. Lose that and, well, let’s just say the 2022 lows start looking realistic again. Nobody wants to talk about sub-$2,000 Ethereum, but charts don’t care about feelings.
Price can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent – but eventually it respects structure.
Oversold Doesn’t Always Mean Immediate Reversal
Both the daily RSI and Stochastic RSI are deep in oversold territory – readings we haven’t seen since the FTX collapse in November 2022. That’s the good news if you’re a buyer. The bad news? Markets can stay oversold for an uncomfortably long time in strong downtrends.
Remember March 2020? Bitcoin traded with an RSI below 30 for almost two straight weeks before the final capitulation. Oversold conditions tell you a bounce is likely, not that it’s guaranteed tomorrow morning.
- Daily RSI: 28 (lowest since November 2022)
- Stochastic RSI: 4/100 (literally kissing the floor)
- Weekly RSI: 44 and falling – still plenty of room to the downside
On-Chain Data: The Silent Bull Case
Here’s where things get really fascinating. While price is down roughly 50% from its 2025 peak, the network fundamentals look almost boringly healthy.
Staking participation is still hovering near 30% of total supply – barely budged during the entire sell-off. Exchange balances continue their multi-year downtrend. Long-term holder accumulation has actually accelerated over the past month. In other words, the people actually using and running Ethereum aren’t panicking.
I’ve been around long enough to know that price and on-chain conviction often diverge for months before they reconcile. When they finally do snap back into alignment, the moves can be explosive.
Bitcoin Correlation: The Elephant in the Room
Let’s be honest – Ethereum rarely decouples meaningfully from Bitcoin during risk-off periods. With BTC itself down over 20% from its recent all-time high and struggling to hold $85,000, it’s hard to get aggressively bullish on altcoins right now.
The ETH/BTC pair is testing its own multi-year support near 0.032. A weekly close below that level would likely confirm another leg lower for Ethereum against Bitcoin – something that historically leads to outperformance of BTC during bear phases.
What Would Change My Mind on the Bear Case
Look, I’m not married to any outcome here. Charts change, and I change with them. But there are three specific things that would make me flip from cautious to aggressively bullish:
- A weekly close above the descending trendline (currently ~$3,350)
- A higher low on the daily timeframe with expanding volume
- RSI breaking its own descending trendline on the daily chart
Until at least two of those happen, I’m treating any bounce as an opportunity to reduce exposure or reposition rather than load the boat.
Trading the Range: Practical Levels to Watch
If you’re determined to trade this mess (and I get it – sitting on hands is hard), here are the levels I’m personally watching:
| Scenario | Key Level | Target | Invalidation |
| Bullish Relief Rally | Hold $2,750 | $3,200 – $3,400 | New low below $2,700 |
| Bearish Continuation | Break $2,700 | $2,400 – $2,600 | Reclaim $3,000 |
| Major Reversal Signal | Weekly close > $3,350 | $4,000+ | Fail to hold $3,000 |
Personally? I’m keeping the majority of my ETH stack staked and untouched. The 3-4% real yield looks pretty attractive when price is this depressed, and I’m not interested in trying to time the exact bottom.
Final Thoughts: Patience Usually Wins
Crypto has a way of humiliating both the perma-bulls and the perma-bears eventually. Right now the weight of evidence suggests caution – the trend is still down, Bitcoin is weak, and key support levels are under serious threat.
That said, the combination of oversold technicals and rock-solid on-chain fundamentals creates the kind of setup that has historically marked major turning points. Whether that turning point is happening this week or three months from now is impossible to know.
My plan hasn’t changed: stay staked, accumulate slowly on weakness, and wait for the chart to actually confirm strength before getting aggressive. The market will do what it wants, but at least I’ll sleep at night.
Whatever you decide, just remember – in crypto, capital preservation is the only edge most of us ever really have. Protect it fiercely.
