Have you ever wondered how much of your daily life depends on invisible networks of energy flowing beneath the ground? For Europe, this question has become more pressing than ever, as the continent grapples with its reliance on Russian natural gas. In May 2025, data revealed a surprising uptick in Russia’s pipeline gas deliveries to Europe, a 10.3% jump from April, sparking fresh debates about energy security and geopolitical ties. As someone who’s watched global energy markets shift over time, I find this moment fascinating—it’s a tug-of-war between necessity, politics, and ambition for independence.
The Current State of Europe’s Gas Supply
Europe’s energy landscape is a complex web, and Russia remains a key player despite years of tension. In May, Gazprom, Russia’s state-controlled gas giant, delivered approximately 46 million cubic meters of natural gas daily through the TurkStream pipeline, the last major route supplying Europe. This marked a notable increase from April’s 41.7 million cubic meters per day. What’s more, year-to-date figures show a rise from 6.6 billion cubic meters in 2024 to 7.2 billion in 2025. These numbers, while significant, only tell part of the story.
The reliance on Russian gas has dwindled since its peak before 2022, when it accounted for 45% of the EU’s gas imports. Today, that share hovers around 18%, a figure that still carries weight. For context, this includes both pipeline deliveries and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports. Countries like Hungary continue to lean on TurkStream for their supply, while others have scrambled to diversify. It’s a balancing act, and not everyone’s playing the same game.
Why the Increase in Pipeline Gas?
So, what’s behind this recent spike? For one, seasonal demand plays a role. Spring often sees fluctuations in energy use as countries prepare for varying weather patterns. But there’s more at play. The TurkStream pipeline, running through the Balkans, has become a lifeline for some European nations after the Nord Stream sabotage in 2022 and the halt of gas transit through Ukraine in January 2025. This pipeline’s reliability has kept certain countries tethered to Russian supply, even as the EU pushes for alternatives.
Interestingly, this increase feels like a paradox. The EU has been vocal about cutting ties with Russian energy, yet here we are, seeing a bump in pipeline flows. In my view, it’s a reminder of how deeply entrenched energy systems are. Transitioning away from a major supplier isn’t like flipping a switch—it’s a slow, messy process.
Energy transitions are never simple. They require time, investment, and political will to untangle decades of infrastructure.
– Energy policy analyst
The EU’s Plan to Break Free
The European Union isn’t sitting idly by. In May 2025, the European Commission unveiled an ambitious roadmap to end all Russian gas imports by 2027. This isn’t just talk—it’s a structured plan with clear steps. For starters, the EU aims to boost transparency in gas markets, ensuring better tracking of Russian gas flows. They’re also cracking down on new contracts with Russian suppliers, with a complete ban on spot contracts by the end of 2025.
- Improved Monitoring: Enhanced data collection to trace Russian gas across EU markets.
- Contract Restrictions: No new long-term or spot contracts with Russian suppliers.
- Diversification Push: Increased investment in LNG terminals and renewable energy sources.
This roadmap is bold, but is it realistic? I’ve seen grand plans before, and the devil’s always in the details. Replacing 18% of your gas supply in two years is no small feat, especially when infrastructure like pipelines can’t be built overnight. Still, the EU’s commitment signals a shift in priorities, one that prioritizes energy sovereignty over short-term convenience.
The Role of TurkStream and Hungary’s Position
Let’s zoom in on TurkStream. This pipeline, running under the Black Sea and through the Balkans, has become a focal point in Europe’s energy saga. For countries like Hungary, it’s a critical supply line. Unlike others that have pivoted to LNG or alternative pipelines, Hungary has maintained a pragmatic relationship with Russia’s gas network. Why? It’s simple—cost and reliability. TurkStream delivers gas at a predictable rate, and for now, it’s keeping the lights on in Budapest.
But this reliance isn’t without risks. Geopolitical tensions could disrupt flows, and Hungary’s position puts it at odds with the EU’s broader strategy. It’s a classic case of national interests clashing with collective goals. Personally, I think Hungary’s approach highlights the uneven pace of Europe’s energy transition—some countries are ready to leap, while others are still tethered to the past.
| Country | Main Gas Source | Dependency Level |
| Hungary | TurkStream (Russia) | High |
| Germany | LNG, Norway | Low |
| Italy | Algeria, LNG | Medium |
The Bigger Picture: Geopolitical and Economic Stakes
Energy isn’t just about keeping the heat on—it’s a geopolitical chessboard. Russia’s ability to supply gas to Europe, even at a reduced level, gives it leverage. Meanwhile, the EU’s push to diversify is as much about politics as it is about practicality. Cutting Russian gas means investing in new infrastructure, like LNG terminals, and forging deals with countries like Norway, Qatar, or the U.S. It’s a costly endeavor, and consumers might feel the pinch.
Here’s where it gets tricky: energy prices. Diversifying sources often means higher costs, at least in the short term. For the average European household, this could translate to steeper bills. I’ve always believed that energy policy is a balancing act between affordability and independence, and right now, Europe’s walking a tightrope.
Energy security is national security. Europe’s future depends on breaking free from single-source dependency.
– Geopolitical strategist
What’s Next for Europe’s Energy Future?
Looking ahead, the EU’s 2027 deadline looms large. Can they pull it off? The roadmap is a start, but execution will be key. Investments in renewable energy, like wind and solar, are ramping up, but these sources can’t yet replace gas for heating or industrial use. Meanwhile, LNG imports are growing, but they come with their own challenges—higher costs and environmental concerns from shipping and processing.
- Scale Up Renewables: Increase wind and solar capacity to reduce gas reliance.
- Expand LNG Infrastructure: Build more terminals to diversify supply sources.
- Enhance Energy Efficiency: Promote conservation to lower overall demand.
In my opinion, the most intriguing aspect is how this shift will reshape Europe’s identity. Moving away from Russian gas isn’t just about energy—it’s about asserting autonomy in a world where resources are power. The road to 2027 will be bumpy, but it’s a journey worth watching.
Europe’s energy story is far from over. The recent uptick in Russian gas flows through TurkStream is a reminder of how interconnected global markets remain, even in times of strife. As the EU pushes toward independence, the question isn’t just whether they can break free—it’s whether they can do so without fracturing their unity or wallets. What do you think—can Europe rewrite its energy future by 2027, or will old dependencies linger?
