Have you ever wondered why holiday shopping feels like it never really slows down, no matter what’s happening in the broader economy? I mean, we’ve all seen those headlines about dipping confidence levels and worries over prices, yet somehow the malls and outlets still seem packed. It’s one of those quirks of consumer behavior that keeps fascinating me.
This year, despite some softer sentiment readings, shoppers are out there spending—and spending quite a bit. The key driver? Deals. Retailers are leaning hard into promotions to meet people where they are, and it’s paying off with strong foot traffic and sales.
The Resilience of the American Shopper This Holiday Season
Let’s paint a picture. Imagine driving up to an outlet center in late November or early December. What do you see? Full parking lots, families bundling up against the chill, arms already laden with bags. That’s the reality right now across many value-oriented shopping destinations.
It’s interesting because the numbers on consumer sentiment aren’t exactly glowing. Confidence has taken a hit lately, with concerns over inflation lingering and new questions about trade policies. Yet, when it comes to opening wallets for gifts and personal treats, people are showing up. Perhaps the most surprising part is how value plays into this equation.
Why Discounts Are the Real Holiday MVP
Retailers aren’t waiting for shoppers to come begging for lower prices—they’re proactively discounting to capture demand. And it’s working. Shoppers today are savvy; they know when something feels like a genuine bargain, and they’re responding enthusiastically.
In outlet environments especially, the model is built around everyday value. Premium brands at reduced prices create that sweet spot where consumers feel smart about their purchases. Add seasonal promotions on top, and you’ve got a recipe for sustained traffic through the entire holiday stretch.
Customers are very resilient and looking to spend when they perceive real value.
That resilience stands out to me. It’s not blind spending; it’s calculated. People might be anxious about bigger economic pictures, but when presented with compelling offers, they prioritize the joy of giving—or treating themselves.
Breaking Down the Latest Spending Data
Preliminary figures paint an encouraging picture. Holiday retail spending is tracking well above last year’s levels, even before adjusting for any price changes. That’s notable given the mixed signals from sentiment surveys.
One standout trend: in-store shopping still dominates. Roughly three-quarters of holiday dollars are being spent physically in stores. Sure, online continues to grow faster percentage-wise, but the brick-and-mortar experience remains central to how most people holiday shop.
- Overall holiday spending up solidly year-over-year
- In-person purchases driving the majority of volume
- E-commerce providing the growth acceleration
- Value-oriented destinations seeing particularly strong traffic
These patterns suggest something deeper about consumer preferences. Even with all the convenience of online ordering, there’s still magic in walking through decorated centers, touching products, and feeling the holiday energy.
The Confidence Conundrum: Why Spending Diverges from Sentiment
Here’s where things get really intriguing. Traditional consumer confidence indexes have softened heading into the holidays. People express worry about persistent costs in certain categories and uncertainty around policy shifts.
Yet actual spending behavior tells a different story. It’s almost as if confidence metrics capture longer-term anxiety, while holiday shopping taps into shorter-term emotional drivers—tradition, family expectations, the desire to create memories.
In my view, this divergence isn’t new, but it’s pronounced this year. When deals align with those emotional drivers, spending holds up remarkably well. Retailers understand this intuitively, which explains the aggressive promotional stance we’re seeing.
What Outlet Centers Reveal About Broader Retail Health
Outlet malls offer a unique lens into consumer priorities. These destinations thrive on the promise of premium goods at accessible prices. When they’re busy—and reports suggest they are—it signals that value hunting is in full swing.
Think about the mix of tenants. National brands, designer labels, all offering merchandise at discounts off traditional retail. For budget-conscious shoppers who still want quality, it’s the perfect middle ground. And right now, that middle ground is crowded.
Parking lots filling up consistently through November and December isn’t just anecdotal. It’s a tangible sign that promotional strategies are resonating. Shoppers aren’t staying home; they’re strategically seeking out places where their dollars stretch furthest.
Looking Ahead: Reasons for Retail Optimism in 2026
Perhaps the most encouraging signal coming from retail executives is their continued enthusiasm for physical stores. Despite years of predictions about retail’s demise, brands still want real estate—they want control over the customer experience.
As department store landscapes evolve and consolidate, direct-to-consumer physical presences become more attractive. Brands see value in owning the narrative from product display to checkout.
Retailers want stores. They love bricks and mortar.
That sentiment feels grounded in current performance. When holiday seasons deliver solid results even against headwinds, it reinforces the viability of physical retail done right—especially when paired with strong value propositions.
How Shoppers Are Navigating Economic Uncertainty
Let’s talk about the psychology for a moment. Many households feel squeezed by costs that haven’t fully normalized. Groceries, energy, housing—these weigh on monthly budgets. So when discretionary dollars become available, people become more deliberate.
Holiday shopping becomes an exercise in prioritization. Gifts for kids? Non-negotiable. Experiences or treats for extended family? Maybe scaled back. Personal indulgences? Only if the price feels justified.
This is where promotional depth matters immensely. A moderate discount might not move the needle, but deeper, compelling offers do. Retailers who understand this calibration are winning the season.
The Role of Premium Brands in Value Shopping
One aspect I find particularly interesting is how premium and luxury-adjacent brands fit into the value equation. Traditionally, these names commanded full price with little discounting. Today, many maintain outlet-specific lines or strategies that preserve brand equity while offering accessibility.
Consumers respond positively. They get the prestige of recognized labels without the sticker shock of department store pricing. It’s democratized aspiration in a way—allowing more people to participate in trends and quality without overextending financially.
- Brand prestige meets everyday affordability
- Outlet-exclusive merchandise protects mainline pricing
- Creates loyalty among value-conscious premium shoppers
- Drives consistent traffic beyond seasonal peaks
In-Store vs. Online: The Surprising Physical Dominance
We hear endless talk about e-commerce taking over everything. And yes, online holiday sales are growing nicely. But the sheer volume still flows through physical channels.
Why does this persist? Part of it is tactile—people want to see, touch, try on, especially for gifts. Part is immediacy; no waiting for shipping when deadlines loom. And part is atmosphere. Holiday shopping for many is as much social ritual as transaction.
Outlet centers amplify these advantages. Open-air designs, festive decorations, food options—all create an experience that’s hard to replicate purely online. When combined with aggressive pricing, it’s a powerful combination.
What This Means for Retail’s Future Direction
Taking a step back, current holiday performance offers clues about retail evolution. Success increasingly belongs to operators who master omnichannel while preserving physical strengths.
Value will remain central. Even as economic conditions hopefully improve, the habits formed during tighter times often persist. Shoppers trained to seek deals tend to continue comparing options.
Physical retail’s role seems secure when executed with purpose. Destinations that deliver consistent value, engaging environments, and brand curation will continue attracting crowds.
In many ways, this holiday season feels like a proving ground. Strong results despite sentiment headwinds validate strategies focused on perceived value and experiential shopping. It’s a reminder that consumers adapt, retailers adapt, and the cycle continues.
As we wrap up the year, the story isn’t one of retrenchment but of resilience—both from shoppers seeking joy amid uncertainty and retailers meeting them with open (and discounted) arms. Whatever 2026 brings economically, the appetite for smart spending appears firmly intact.
And honestly, that’s somewhat reassuring. Holidays are about connection and generosity. When deals help more people participate in that spirit without regret, everyone wins a little.
