I still remember the shockwaves from late 2016. Everyone was bracing for turmoil, predicting markets would crumble under the weight of uncertainty. Yet, what unfolded was something entirely different—a steady climb that caught many off guard. It’s fascinating how financial markets often defy our political expectations, isn’t it?
Reflecting on Market Resilience During Political Shifts
In my experience watching these cycles, markets have a way of marching to their own beat. Politics grabs the headlines, but underlying economic forces, investor sentiment, and global trends usually call the shots. Looking back at the periods tied to major policy changes in the U.S., the performance numbers tell a story of surprising strength in many areas.
Perhaps the most interesting aspect is how assets reacted differently across phases. There was an initial grind higher, then some sharper moves more recently. And over the full span, the compounded gains in certain sectors have been nothing short of extraordinary.
The Early Phase: A Remarkably Calm Bull Run
Right out of the gate in 2017, things felt almost too good to be true. Major stock indexes powered ahead without much drama. Volatility dipped to historic lows, encouraging investors to pile in.
The S&P 500 climbed nearly 19% over that first year. International markets joined the party too—Japan’s Nikkei matched that gain, while emerging markets surged close to 29%. It was one of those periods where everything seemed to work in sync.
Cryptocurrencies stole the show, though. Bitcoin exploded by over 1700%, and Ethereum delivered returns that still sound unbelievable today. Meanwhile, traditional safe havens like gold edged up modestly, and oil barely budged.
Currencies painted a mixed picture. The dollar strengthened against some emerging economies but weakened versus developed peers like the euro. Bond yields stayed range-bound, with longer-term rates actually dipping slightly.
- S&P 500: +19.0%
- Emerging Markets: +29.0%
- Bitcoin: +1711.8%
- Gold: +6.2%
- Volatility Index: Down to under 10
That low-volatility environment created a feedback loop. The calmer things got, the more investors bet on continued calm. We all know how that story ended a few years later, but in the moment, it felt unstoppable.
Recent Years: Higher Volatility but Continued Gains
Fast forward to the latest chapter, covering 2025 so far. Markets have faced more headlines, policy twists, and even spikes in volatility. Yet the overall trajectory remains upward for many risk assets.
The S&P 500 has added another 16.6%, bringing its longer-term performance to impressive levels. Global indexes have kept pace or outperformed in some cases—Brazil’s market up over 32%, Japan again leading with 27% gains.
What’s changed noticeably is commodities and precious metals. Gold has roared higher by 55%, silver more than doubled. Copper jumped nearly 29%, signaling bets on industrial demand. Oil, however, took a step back.
Crypto has cooled off dramatically from earlier highs, with both Bitcoin and Ethereum posting modest losses in this window. That rotation away from speculative assets toward tangible ones like metals feels telling.
On the currency front, the dollar has shown selective strength—gaining sharply against some but weakening significantly versus others, including a big drop against the Russian ruble. Interest rates have eased, with short-term yields falling more than long-term ones.
| Asset Class | Recent Performance | Notable Shift |
| Stocks (S&P 500) | +16.6% | Steady gains amid noise |
| Gold | +55.0% | Strong safe-haven demand |
| Silver | +101.7% | Industrial + monetary appeal |
| Bitcoin | -2.5% | Profit-taking phase |
| Oil | -15.6% | Supply dynamics |
Inflation expectations have moderated in the U.S. but ticked higher in places like Japan. It’s a reminder that policy impacts aren’t uniform globally.
The Bigger Picture: Cumulative Returns Over the Full Period
When you zoom out and look from late 2016 through mid-December 2025, the numbers become even more striking. U.S. stocks have more than tripled, with the S&P 500 up over 207%. That’s the kind of return that rewards patience.
Many international markets have delivered similar compounding—Japan and Brazil both around 166%. Emerging markets as a group lagged a bit but still managed solid 60% gains.
Precious metals shine brightest in the long view. Gold up 271%, silver nearly tripling as well. Copper more than doubled, reflecting ongoing industrialization themes.
Cryptocurrencies? Absolutely historic. Bitcoin multiplied nearly 95 times, Ethereum over 400 times. Those early believers who held through the swings have seen life-changing wealth creation.
The dollar’s path shows nuance. Massive gains against Turkey, substantial appreciation versus Brazil and others, but declines against Mexico and Europe. It’s not a simple story of uniform strength or weakness.
- Top performers: Ethereum (+40,000%+), Bitcoin (+9,400%+)
- Precious metals: Gold +271%, Silver +288%
- Equities: U.S. and select globals +150-200%
- Commodities: Copper +115%, mixed elsewhere
- Currencies: Selective dollar appreciation
Rates have risen overall from those ultra-low levels, but we’re still in a historically accommodative environment compared to past decades.
What Drives These Patterns?
One thing I’ve noticed over years in markets is that policy rhetoric often matters less than actual economic outcomes. Tax changes, deregulation, or trade shifts can create winners and losers, but global liquidity and corporate earnings tend to dominate.
In the early years, low rates and synchronized global growth provided tailwinds. More recently, supply chain recalibrations and commodity demand have favored certain sectors.
Precious metals’ surge likely reflects inflation concerns, geopolitical tensions, and central bank buying. Crypto’s maturation brought institutional inflows but also higher scrutiny and volatility.
Markets rarely move in straight lines based on political headlines alone. They price in expectations, then adjust to reality.
That’s been my takeaway. Surprises come when reality diverges from the consensus narrative.
Lessons for Investors Moving Forward
So where does this leave us? Diversification still feels essential. No single asset class dominated every phase—stocks led early, metals and select currencies later.
Staying flexible matters too. Rigid ideological bets on politics translating directly to markets often disappoint. Better to watch price action, fundamentals, and sentiment.
In my view, the U.S. remains an incredible engine of innovation and capital allocation. Political experiments come and go, but the underlying business dynamism endures.
Whether we’re entering a new geographic focus or continuing old trends, keeping an open mind seems wisest. Markets will signal the path ahead, as they always do.
Looking at these numbers again, it’s hard not to feel a sense of opportunity. Despite the noise, wealth creation has been substantial for those who stayed invested across asset classes.
The next chapters will bring their own twists, no doubt. But history suggests resilience—and often rewards— for those navigating change thoughtfully.
What do you think the coming years hold? The data so far has defied many fears. Maybe that’s the real lesson: markets adapt, innovate, and ultimately reflect human progress more than momentary politics.
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