Have you ever watched a coin pump hard while literally everything else is bleeding out, and thought “this one’s different”? Yeah, me too. And nine times out of ten that’s exactly when the rug feels heaviest.
Today that coin is Hyperliquid. While Bitcoin cracked below $90k and the broader market saw over a billion dollars liquidated in 24 hours, HYPE actually climbed more than 6% and sits around $40-41. On the surface it looks like the little perp DEX that could. Dig one layer deeper, though, and the daily chart is screaming something completely different.
Why Hyperliquid Defied Gravity Today (And Why It Might Not Matter)
Let’s give credit where it’s due – the project has been firing on all cylinders lately.
First, they just shipped the BLP testnet on Hypercore, their own Layer 1. That’s a big deal when most perp platforms are still glued to someone else’s chain. Second, tokenized stocks just got a lot sexier with Nvidia, Tesla, and even SpaceX dropping in. Trading volume on those synthetics is spiking, and that flows straight back to platform fees and HYPE buy pressure.
Then there’s the buyback machine. The team has already burned more than $1.3 billion worth of tokens – over 28.5 million HYPE permanently gone. When supply shrinks that aggressively and demand holds steady, price usually loves it.
Finally, staking participation jumped almost 60% in the last month. More tokens locked, less floating supply, classic recipe for upward pressure.
All of that is genuinely bullish. If this were June or July, I’d probably be writing about a breakout toward $70. But markets don’t care about fundamentals when sentiment flips hard, and right now sentiment is ugly.
The Head and Shoulders That Nobody Wants to Talk About
Zoom out to the daily timeframe and the picture changes fast.
Since late June, Hyperliquid has carved out a textbook head and shoulders topping pattern. Left shoulder around $50, head pushing $59 in early autumn, right shoulder again near $50, and the neckline sitting right at $35.50. That’s not some squiggly line I drew after three coffees – that’s a pattern with decades of historical baggage across every asset class.
When a head and shoulders confirms on high timeframes in a risk-off environment, the measured move is brutal. We’re talking 70%+ drops more often than most traders want to admit.
The measured target from that pattern? Roughly $11. Yes, eleven dollars. From current levels that’s a 72-75% haircut. And before you say “but fundamentals!”, remember LUNA had “fundamentals” too right until it didn’t.
Death Cross Looming – The Nail in the Coffin?
As if one bearish reversal pattern wasn’t enough, the 50-day SMA is about to cross below the 200-day SMA any day now. That’s the infamous death cross. I know, I know – “lagging indicator, doesn’t matter”. Except it does when the entire market is already puking and momentum indicators are rolling over.
Combine a death cross with a confirmed head and shoulders in a macro risk-off environment and you have what traders quietly call a confluent shitstorm.
- Broader crypto market down hard – check
- Over $1B liquidated in 24h – check
- Bitcoin testing the breakdown of its multi-month range – check
- Altcoins bleeding even harder than BTC – check
- HYPE printing two of the most reliable topping signals at the same time – check and check
Look, I’m not here to spread FUD for clicks. I actually like what Hyperliquid is building. The order book model on its own chain is genuinely innovative, and the tokenized equity angle could be massive. But charts don’t care about my feelings, and right now they’re flashing bright red.
Key Levels to Watch Right Now
Here’s the cold, hard truth in plain numbers:
| Level | Meaning | Consequence if Lost |
| $35.50 | Neckline of H&S | Pattern confirms, fast move lower probable |
| $28 – $30 | Previous local lows | First major support zone |
| $18 – $20 | Mid-range measured move | Psychological breakdown level |
| $10 – $12 | Full measured target | 70%+ wipeout, April lows retest |
If we lose $35.50 on any kind of volume, the ride down could be swift and merciless. We’ve seen these moves before – one bad 4-hour candle and suddenly stops are triggering all the way to the bottom.
What Could Invalidate the Bear Case?
Fair question. Nothing is set in stone.
A decisive close back above $50 would break the right shoulder and likely kill the pattern. Pair that with Bitcoin reclaiming $100k and suddenly the whole narrative flips. Possible? Sure. Probable in the next week or two? I wouldn’t bet my stack on it.
Another scenario: the buyback and staking inflows are so aggressive that they absorb any selling pressure and we grind sideways until the macro picture clears. That’s happened before with tokens that have real burn mechanisms.
But hoping for absorption while the rest of crypto is in freefall feels a lot like catching knives.
My Take – And What I’m Doing Personally
Full transparency: I’ve held a decent bag of HYPE since the low twenties. The fundamentals still excite me long-term. But I moved my stop-loss tight under $36 this morning and took some profits around $41. If we break the neckline, I’m out and happy to buy back way lower. If we somehow reverse and blast through $50, I’ll re-enter on the breakout.
Risk management isn’t sexy until the day you need it.
The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. But when technicals, sentiment, and macro all line up in the same direction, it’s usually smart to listen.
Hyperliquid might very well be a monster in 2026 or 2027. The tech is solid and the tokenomics are aggressive in the right way. But between now and then, the chart is setting up for what could be one of the nastiest corrections of this cycle.
So yeah, congratulate the team on the green candle today. Just maybe don’t get too comfortable holding through what comes next.
Whatever you decide, trade your plan and keep your risk tight. The market has a way of punishing greed and rewarding respect. See you on the other side – hopefully with most of our portfolios intact.
