Have you ever watched a token you really believe in just… sit there? Not crashing, not mooning, just grinding sideways while the rest of the market does cartwheels? That’s exactly what Internet Computer (ICP) feels like right now in early December 2025.
I’ve been following ICP since the wild days of 2021, and I’ll be honest: the price action lately has been painful to watch. We’re talking weeks of bleeding, failed bounces, and a chart that looks like it’s allergic to the upside. Yet something interesting is starting to show up in the data. The bleeding is slowing. The question is whether that’s the calm before another leg down or the quiet setup for something bigger.
Why ICP Can’t Seem to Catch a Break Right Now
Let’s start with the elephant in the room: the exponential moving averages. The 9-day and 20-day EMAs have turned into concrete ceilings. Every time price pokes its head above them, it gets slapped right back down. It’s textbook bearish structure.
Right now, ICP is trading roughly around $3.76 (at the time of writing), which puts it comfortably below both short-term EMAs. That alone tells you who’s still driving the bus: the bears. Until we see a daily close (and preferably a weekly close) above those lines, the path of least resistance remains lower.
MACD Is Still Flashing Red (But Maybe Less Angry Red)
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator isn’t doing ICP any favors either. We’re firmly in negative territory, with the MACD line below the signal line and the histogram painted red.
That said, I’ve noticed something that gives me a tiny bit of hope. The histogram bars are contracting. In plain English? The downward momentum is losing steam. It’s like a truck running out of gas on a downhill slope: still moving lower, but not accelerating anymore.
“Contracting histogram bars often precede either consolidation or reversal. The market is trying to find balance.”
– Veteran technical trader
RSI Sitting in No-Man’s Land
The Relative Strength Index is currently chilling in the low 40s. That’s not oversold (which would be below 30), but it’s definitely not showing any real strength either. Think of it as market apathy: nobody is panicking, but nobody is excited enough to buy aggressively.
In my experience, when RSI hangs out in this zone for weeks, we usually get one of two outcomes: either a slow grind lower until we finally hit oversold and bounce, or a sudden volume spike that breaks the range entirely. We’re still waiting to see which one ICP chooses.
Order Book Walls Tell the Real Story
Charts are great, but order book data often tells you what’s actually happening behind the scenes. And right now? It’s a war.
- Strong bid walls sitting just below current price, acting like a trampoline. They’ve absorbed selling pressure multiple times.
- Even stronger ask walls stacked overhead, especially around the $4.00–$4.20 zone (that lovely round psychological level everyone loves).
- The biggest concentration of sell orders appears to be exactly at $4.20. Classic “whale defense line.”
Translation: someone (or a group of someones) really doesn’t want ICP above $4.20 right now. But the bids below are equally stubborn. Result? A very tight, very frustrating range.
Historical Support Levels: How Low Can We Actually Go?
If the current bid walls fail, the next major support zone sits around $3.20–$3.30, where we saw massive volume in previous months. Below that? Things get ugly fast: $2.80 (the famous weekly trendline everyone on Crypto Twitter keeps posting about) and then the 2022-2023 lows near $2.50.
Personally, I don’t think we’ll retest $2.50 unless Bitcoin decides to take another dive below $80k, but stranger things have happened in crypto.
What Would Actually Flip the Script?
Look, I’m not here to sugarcoat it. The chart is bearish until proven otherwise. But if I had to build a bullish case, here’s what needs to happen, in order:
- Daily close above the 9-day EMA (currently around $3.95-ish)
- Reclaim the 20-day EMA with volume
- Break and hold above $4.20 (taking out those ask walls)
- Weekly close above $5.00 to confirm trend reversal
Anything less than that and we’re probably just looking at another fake-out pump before the next leg down.
The Bigger Picture: Is Anyone Still Building on Internet Computer?
One thing that keeps me from completely writing ICP off is the actual ecosystem. Yeah, the price sucks right now, but on-chain activity hasn’t collapsed. Developers are still shipping. Canisters are still being spun up. The tech is legitimately interesting, especially if you care about decentralization beyond just Ethereum L2s.
But here’s the harsh reality: narrative only matters when money is flowing into altcoins. And right now, money is flowing into Bitcoin, Solana memes, and AI tokens. ICP is stuck in the “good project, bad tokenomics” corner that so many layer-1s end up in during bear markets.
My Personal Take (Because You Asked)
I’ve been accumulating small amounts under $4, but I’m not married to the idea that we moon tomorrow. This feels more like a 2026 play than a December 2025 play. The chart needs serious repair work, and until Bitcoin gives altcoins some breathing room, most layer-1s are going to stay suppressed.
That said, if we do manage to hold $3 into year-end and Bitcoin keeps marching toward $100k+, the setup for an explosive Q1 2026 move becomes very real. I’ve seen this movie before with projects like Solana in 2020 or Polygon in early 2021. Ugly charts for months, then sudden parabolic moves when liquidity finally rotates.
“The best trades are the ones everyone hates until they don’t.”
– Old crypto saying that keeps proving true
So yeah, ICP looks terrible right now. Bears are still in control. EMAs are rejecting every bounce. Order book walls are thick.
But the momentum bleed is slowing, bids are defending key levels, and the broader crypto market is starting to price in a very bullish 2026.
Whether that’s enough to save ICP before another leg down? We’ll know soon. Until then, I’m watching those EMAs like a hawk.
Stay safe out there.
