Have you ever watched a company everyone wrote off suddenly roar back to life? That’s exactly what happened last Friday when Intel’s stock shot up a casual 10% in a single session – and it’s still holding most of those gains. The spark? One tweet from an analyst who’s been eerily accurate about Apple’s plans for years.
I’ve been following semiconductors for longer than I care to admit, and I can’t remember the last time a single rumor moved a $100+ billion company this dramatically. But when that rumor involves Apple potentially bringing some chip production back to American soil using Intel’s factories? Yeah, that’ll do it.
The Rumor That Lit the Fuse
Here’s the headline everyone’s talking about: renowned TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo believes Intel is on the verge of securing a deal to manufacture Apple’s lowest-end M-series processors starting in 2027.
Yes, you read that right. The same Intel that Apple dramatically dumped in 2020 when it announced the switch to its own silicon might be getting invited back to the party – albeit through the foundry side door rather than as the main chip designer.
This isn’t just any analyst throwing darts either. Kuo has an almost supernatural track record when it comes to predicting Apple’s supply chain moves. When he talks like this, Wall Street listens.
What Exactly Would Intel Be Building?
The deal, if it materializes, would reportedly have Intel producing the entry-level chips in Apple’s M-series lineup – think the base M4 or M5 you’d find in the cheapest MacBook Air or entry-level Mac mini.
These aren’t the high-performance monsters that power the MacBook Pro workstations that video editors and 3D artists use. They’re the volume chips – the ones Apple ships by the tens of millions. Even if they’re the “lowest-end” in performance terms, we’re still talking about enormous order volumes.
“Visibility on Intel becoming an advanced-node supplier to Apple has recently improved significantly.”
Ming-Chi Kuo, TF International Securities
That single sentence sent Intel’s market cap up by roughly $12 billion in hours. That’s how much the market thinks even a small piece of Apple’s business is worth.
Why 2027 Feels Both Forever Away and Right Around the Corner
The timeline actually makes perfect sense when you understand how chip development works. Intel is expected to release its process design kit (PDK) for the 18A node – their most advanced manufacturing process – in early 2026.
That PDK is essentially the rulebook Apple’s engineers would use to design chips specifically optimized for Intel’s factories. From PDK release to first shipments typically takes 18-24 months in the best case. Which puts us… right at Q2/Q3 2027.
In chip years, that’s practically tomorrow.
The Bigger Picture: America’s Chip Ambition
Look, I’m going to be honest – part of what makes this rumor so electric isn’t just the money. It’s the symbolism.
Apple currently manufactures 100% of its Mac and iPad chips at TSMC in Taiwan. Having even the entry-level chips made by Intel in Arizona or Oregon would be a massive win for American industrial policy – exactly the kind of thing the CHIPS Act was designed to enable.
Kuo himself noted that this move would represent “strong support” for domestic manufacturing initiatives. Translation: Apple might be doing its patriotic duty while also hedging its geopolitical risk. Smart business and good optics? That’s the holy grail.
Why This Matters More Than the Immediate Revenue
Here’s where it gets really interesting. Landing Apple as a foundry customer – even for lower-end chips – would be the ultimate validation of Intel’s manufacturing capabilities.
Think about it: Apple has the most demanding chip requirements on the planet. Their standards for yield, performance, and power efficiency are insane. If Intel can satisfy Apple, they can satisfy anyone.
- Apple’s seal of approval would make other companies far more likely to trust Intel Foundry Services
- It proves Intel 18A actually works at scale – something investors have been nervous about
- It gives Intel crucial high-volume production experience on their most advanced node
- Most importantly, it opens the door to bigger fish – maybe even iPhone chips down the road
Paul Markham from GAM Global Equities put it perfectly when he said Apple would be a “major reference customer” whose presence validates Intel’s foundry ambitions. He’s not wrong.
Don’t Expect This to Hurt TSMC (Much)
Interesting side note: Kuo specifically downplayed the impact on TSMC, saying Apple will remain “highly dependent” on their advanced nodes for the foreseeable future.
He’s probably right. The high-performance chips – the ones with all the GPU cores and neural engines that power Apple Intelligence features – those will almost certainly stay with TSMC for years to come. Their 3nm and 2nm processes are just too far ahead.
But volume is volume. Even 10-15% of Apple’s Mac chip production moving to Intel would be transformative for Intel’s foundry business.
Intel’s Long, Complicated History with Apple
There’s something almost poetic about this potential partnership.
Intel powered the Mac from 2006 through 2020 – fifteen years of partnership that helped both companies grow massively. The breakup was painful and very public, with Apple citing Intel’s inability to deliver power-efficient chips fast enough.
Now Intel might get to manufacture the very chips that replaced them. There’s a certain symmetry to it that I find fascinating.
The Bottom Line
Is this deal guaranteed? Absolutely not. It’s still just a very well-sourced rumor at this point.
But the fact that the market is pricing in a real possibility tells you everything about how far Intel’s foundry narrative has come. A year ago, the idea of Apple trusting Intel to manufacture any of their chips would have been laughed out of the room.
Today? Wall Street just added $12 billion to Intel’s market cap on the possibility.
That, more than anything else, shows how much the narrative around Intel has changed. The company that was left for dead in 2023 suddenly has investors dreaming about being America’s foundry champion again.
Whether this specific Apple deal happens or not, the fact that it’s even plausible represents an enormous psychological victory for Intel and everyone who believes in the resurgence of American chip manufacturing.
And honestly? That might be the real story here.
