Imagine you’re filling up your car and suddenly the price jumps fifty cents overnight. You curse a little, blame “greedy oil companies,” and move on. But sometimes the real reason isn’t corporate greed—it’s a few speedboats with machine guns in a narrow stretch of water halfway around the world.
That stretch of water is the Strait of Hormuz, and over the weekend it claimed another victim.
Another Weekend, Another Tanker in Iranian Hands
Late Sunday, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps navy units boarded and seized a small tanker flying the flag of Eswatini—a landlocked country in southern Africa that, according to its own government, hasn’t authorized any ship to use its flag. Ever. The IRGC claims the vessel was carrying 350,000 liters of smuggled fuel. The crew—13 men from India and a neighboring country—were taken into custody and the ship was towed to the port of Bushehr.
If this story sounds familiar, that’s because it is. It’s at least the fourth seizure in the past six weeks, part of a pattern that has accelerated since the collapse of nuclear talks and the re-imposition of UN sanctions.
“The Kingdom of Eswatini has no connection whatsoever to the vessel… and we reject in the strongest terms any attempts to associate our country with maritime criminality.”
Official statement from the Government of Eswatini
You almost have to admire the creativity—someone registered a tanker under the flag of a tiny kingdom that doesn’t even have a coastline. It’s the maritime equivalent of putting Vancouver plates on a car in Arizona and hoping nobody notices.
Why the Strait of Hormuz Matters More Than You Think
Let’s put this in perspective. Roughly 21 million barrels of oil—about 21% of global petroleum liquids consumption—pass through the Strait every single day. That’s one fifth of the world’s supply squeezed through a shipping lane that, at its narrowest, is only 21 miles wide.
To give you an idea how crazy that is:
- The English Channel, by contrast, carries about 20% of the world’s total maritime trade but is 350 miles long and never narrower than 18 miles.
- The Strait of Malacca, the other big global chokepoint, is 500 miles long.
- Hormuz is basically a highway on-ramp for the planet depends on.
Close it—even partially—and oil prices don’t just rise. They spike hard and fast.
A Quick History of “Oops, Your Tanker Belongs to Us Now”
Iran has been playing this game for years, but 2025 has seen a noticeable escalation:
- Early November: Marshall Islands-flagged tanker seized for “unauthorized cargo.”
- Mid-November: Panamax tanker Talara detained, cargo confiscated, ship later released empty.
- Late November: Container ship MSC Aries still anchored off Bandar Abbas since April.
- Now: Eswatini-flagged mystery tanker towed to Bushehr.
Ship-tracking data shows at least three other seized vessels still riding at anchor in Iranian waters, their crews in legal limbo.
The playbook is always the same: accuse the ship of fuel smuggling or pollution violations, board with overwhelming force, tow to port, demand ransom-style fines or use the ship as a bargaining chip in negotiations.
What Iran Gains From This High-Seas Poker Game
On the surface, seizing a few hundred-thousand-dollar cargo of diesel looks like small potatoes for a country sitting on the world’s fourth-largest oil reserves. But this isn’t really about the fuel.
It’s leverage.
Every tanker Iran grabs sends a message: “We can make life extremely expensive for global shipping any time we feel cornered.”
With sanctions biting harder after the formal snapback in September, Tehran needs ways to remind the world—and especially the Gulf Arab states—that it holds a loaded gun to the head of global energy markets.
Insurance rates for ships transiting the Strait have already tripled in the last quarter. Some owners are refusing the route altogether, forcing oil to take longer, costlier paths around the Arabian Peninsula.
The View From the Bridge: What Captains Are Actually Facing
I’ve spoken to a few masters who regularly run the Strait (off the record, of course). The mood has shifted from cautious to openly worried.
“Before, you’d see the IRGC boats shadowing you, maybe a radio call asking your destination. Now they come alongside with RPGs uncovered and board within minutes if you don’t answer exactly right.”
Anonymous tanker master, November 2025
Many ships now travel in convoy with U.S. or British naval escorts when possible, but the Fifth Fleet can’t be everywhere at once.
Where This Is Heading (And Why You Should Care)
Three scenarios seem plausible right now:
- Continued low-boil harassment – Iran keeps seizing a ship every few weeks, oil trades $5-10 higher, we grumble at the pump and move on.
- Accidental escalation – An IRGC boat gets too aggressive, a U.S. or British warship intervenes, shots are fired, and suddenly Brent is limit-up.
- Deliberate closure attempt – Tehran mines the Strait or launches sustained attacks. Prices double overnight, recession odds skyrocket.
Most analysts put the probability of #3 under 10% for now, but #2 is uncomfortably high—somewhere north of 30% over the next six months if seizures continue at this pace.
And here’s the part that keeps energy traders up at night: there is no quick alternative. Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline can bypass maybe 5 million barrels per day. The UAE has another 1.5 million. That’s it. The rest of the world is stuck.
So next time you see a headline about another “routine” tanker seizure in the Persian Gulf, remember—it’s not routine at all. It’s a slow-motion game of chicken with the global economy riding shotgun.
And right now, nobody seems eager to blink first.
